New Mexico at New Mexico State - 2024 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -9.5 (54.0) (-355) Open: -3.0
New Mexico 50 - New Mexico State: 40

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -2.5 (SP+ UNM -4)
Projected Score: UNM: 31 - NMSU: 28 (59)
UNM Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UNM Travel: 193 miles

Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State	-9.5	52.5	W 23 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/7	New Mexico State vs Liberty	+22.5	54.5	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/14	New Mexico State at Fresno State	+19.5	48.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico State at Sam Houston	+15.5	44.5	L 11 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+9.5	54.0	L 40 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9	New Mexico State at Jacksonville State	+21.0	58.5	L 13 - 54	O	N
Tue 10/15	New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech	+12.5	49.0	W 33 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	New Mexico State vs Florida International	+7.0	43.5	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/9	New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky	+18.0	53.5	L 28 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico State at Texas A&M	+38.5	54.5	L 3 - 38	U	Y
Sat 11/23	New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	54.0	W 36 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	New Mexico State vs UTEP	-3.5	51.5	L 35 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)	33.5	53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)	38	50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)	21.6	46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)	36.3	43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	33.5	30.7	48.9%	3.83	1.6	25	485	254	231	6.7	52%	48%	53%	44%	12%	.31
NMSU Defense	12	36.3	34.8	41.3%	3.7	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	43%	40%	12%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	38	37.4	50.4%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	51%	14%	.34
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	30.5	39.3%	3.8	1.9	19	322	179	143	4.4	58%	42%	46%	30%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	28:52	24.7	43%	68%	9.3	81.5	1.6	0.8	3.9	1.6	1	26.8
New Mexico State	12	29:26	19.3	38%	38%	5.4	48.1	1.9	0.8	3.8	1.2	1	27

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (55)	53% (3)	37.8	254	6.7	37 (6)	.37 (1)	3.81 (1)	81% (20)	5% (1)	1.1 (21)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (55)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.18 (98)	3.17 (93)	58% (5)	7% (134)	1.04 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	54% (106)	50% (125)	-	-	-	-	.2 (110)	3.26 (103)	71% (52)	8% (118)	0.97 (64)
NMSU Offense	12	58% (20)	46% (41)	41.3	179.3	4.4	16 (90)	.11 (81)	3.33 (21)	77% (37)	11% (103)	0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	48% (77)	44% (40)	18.8	32.5	230.7	7.1	12.3	12 (118)	12 (85)	.24 (77)	1.4 (125)	27% (8)	37% (11)	.49 (13)	6% (85)	1.9 (110)
NMSU Defense	12	50% (76)	40% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.36 (118)	1.9 (132)	31% (80)	29% (42)	.42 (107)	6% (78)	2.3 (126)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	46% (30)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.51 (132)	1.6 (81)	26% (132)	38% (129)	.54 (129)	6% (79)	2.2 (118)
NMSU Offense	12	42% (116)	30% (132)	11.8	26.7	143.2	5.4	12.2	12 (118)	12 (85)	.05 (128)	1.8 (17)	33% (100)	30% (87)	.13 (131)	7% (104)	1.7 (132)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10 New Mexico State: -19.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8 New Mexico State: -19.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -19.115 #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 31
New Mexico State 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 34
New Mexico 28

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 34
New Mexico State 32

Total Points: 66

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	20	New Mexico -16.5	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2024	09/28	New Mexico State	40	New Mexico	50	New Mexico -9.5	New Mexico	54.0	Over
2023	09/16	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico -2.5	New Mexico State	52.0	Under
2022	10/15	New Mexico State	21	New Mexico	9	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	38.5	Under
2021	09/11	New Mexico	34	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico -19.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over
2019	09/21	New Mexico	55	New Mexico State	52	New Mexico -4	New Mexico State	69.0	Over
2018	09/15	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico	42	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	60.5	Over
2017	09/09	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	30	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	69.5	Under
2016	09/10	New Mexico State	32	New Mexico	31	New Mexico -11.5	New Mexico State	62.0	Over
2015	10/03	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	29	New Mexico -14	New Mexico State	65.5	Over
2014	09/20	New Mexico State	35	New Mexico	38	New Mexico -3	NA	0
2013	10/05	New Mexico	66	New Mexico State	17	New Mexico -7	New Mexico	0
2012	09/22	New Mexico State	14	New Mexico	27
2011	10/01	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	42
2010	10/09	New Mexico State	16	New Mexico	14
2009	09/26	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	20
2008	09/27	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	35
2007	09/08	New Mexico	44	New Mexico State	34
2006	09/09	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico	34
2005	09/17	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	21
2004	09/25	New Mexico State	3	New Mexico	38
2003	09/27	New Mexico	24	New Mexico State	17
2002	09/21	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	13
2001	11/24	New Mexico	53	New Mexico State	0
2000	09/15	New Mexico State	13	New Mexico	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	8	7	7 Overs
New Mexico	17	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 4	2 - 2	5 - 2

(#118) UNM at (#129) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	NMSU
Power RatePwr	#118	#129
SP+SP+	#116	#125
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#126
OffenseOff	#17	#130
DefenseDef	#134	#108
Spec TeamsST	#135	#72
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#53

New Mexico Notes(12/14) HC Mendenhall left for Utah State
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg
(9/10) Defense is worst in CFB. Maybe historically bad.
New Mexico Injury Report

New Mexico State Notes(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#17	#108
SuccessSuc	#10	#64
ExplosiveExp	#86	#127
PPAPPA	#14	#115
PowerPwr	#30	#119
SP+SP+	#64	#127
Pts POPPO	#79	#60
HavocHav	#12	#128

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#5	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#69
Run ExplRExp	#21	#95
PPAExp	#1	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#93
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#66
TackleTak	-	#68

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#96
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#132
PPAExp	#77	#118
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#130
F7 HavocF7	#1	#134
DB HavocDB	#85	#78

New Mexico State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Perf GradePerf	#130	#134
SuccessSuc	#106	#132
ExplosiveExp	#95	#68
PPAPPA	#119	#132
PowerPwr	#111	#128
SP+SP+	#120	#132
Pts POPPO	#82	#128
HavocHav	#112	#114

New Mexico State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#102	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#125
Run ExplRExp	#61	#64
PPAExp	#81	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#28	#94
TackleTak	-	#115

New Mexico State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#17	#81
PPAExp	#128	#132
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#103	#135
F7 HavocF7	#103	#118
DB HavocDB	#104	#79

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 88° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 5
New Mexico 9.5 (54.0)
New Mexico won at New Mexico State this year (50-40)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat New Mexico State last year (50-40)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2023 (27-17)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2022 (21-9)

UNM's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Ryan Davis	54	747	3	13.8	55
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	10
Noa Pola-Gates	50	0	7
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	5

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)	49	112	44%	519	3	5	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Seth McGowan	153	813	3	5.3	38
Michael Washington	158	713	8	4.5	47
Santino Marucci (Tr)	37	131	1	3.5	38
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Seth McGowan	23	277	3	12.0	43
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Da'Marcus Crosby	81	2	0	0	3
Tayden Barnes	57	2	0	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Kale Edwards (Tr)	36	7	4	4	0
Noah Arinze	16	5	3	1	0
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)	36	3	1	6
Tayden Barnes	57	2	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5