Florida at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Florida -17.5 (45.5) (-1000)  Open: -15.0 | 45.5
Florida 31 - Florida State: 11

 
Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Home Game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida -15   (SP+ FLA -17)

Projected Score: FLA: 31 - FSU: 16 (47)
FLA Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
FLA Travel: 129 miles
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Florida vs Miami+2.554.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/7 Florida vs Samford-38.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/14 Florida vs Texas A&M+4.547.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 Florida at Mississippi State-6.558.0W 45 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Florida vs UCF+1.062.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/12 Florida at Tennessee+13.554.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 10/19 Florida vs Kentucky+2.542.5W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Florida vs Georgia+14.552.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 11/9 Florida at Texas+24.548.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida vs LSU+3.057.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Florida vs Ole Miss+13.057.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Florida at Florida State-17.545.5W 31 - 11UY
Fri 12/20 Florida vs Tulane-10.050.5W 33 - 8UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24UN
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36UY
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7OY
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#39 (.27)44% (47)28.343% (63)3.11 (69)15245% (36)2574.7 (14)#106 (.24)38% (26)23.136% (15)40% (45)4.08 (93)49.610.6
FSU#60 (.21)41% (79)15.439% (113)2.64 (128)15043% (54)2514.45 (25)#13 (.09)36% (9)2840% (38)32% (1)3.5 (47)56.60.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1228.327.543.9%4.71224091522574.348%52%43%45%16%.27
FSU Defense142822.735.5%3.51.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%32%21%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1223.127.837.9%4.080.6 - - - - - 50%49%36%40%16%.24
FSU Offense1415.416.441.3%4.450.6204011502514.547%53%39%43%15%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1233:0621.637%41%6.649.610.64.91.8026.4
Florida State1429:2319.636%48%6.156.60.61.26.73.2229.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1248% (88)43% (63)35.2151.64.321 (54).17 (59)3.11 (69)72% (85)12% (114)1 (64)
FSU Defense1449% (49)40% (38) - - - - .12 (51)2.75 (19)77% (96)12% (20)1.07 (102)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1250% (71)36% (15) - - - - .16 (84)2.97 (44)59% (8)10% (62)1.28 (132)
FSU Offense1447% (93)39% (113)33.1150.14.532 (10).07 (111)2.64 (128)63% (123)9% (52)1.06 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (40)45% (36)23.432.4257.27.91120 (70)5 (6).37 (33)1.6 (76)32% (79)30% (74).43 (38)4% (13)2.1 (48)
FSU Defense1451% (90)32% (1) - - - - - - 10 (67).06 (4)1.6 (65)36% (16)27% (28).22 (22)9% (2)1.9 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1249% (71)40% (45) - - - - - - 3 (132).35 (107)1.9 (129)34% (39)28% (37).34 (82)6% (82)2.3 (120)
FSU Offense1453% (39)43% (54)18.630.9250.68.113.525 (37)4 (2).34 (46)1.6 (48)32% (78)31% (66).36 (61)6% (67)2.2 (32)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 12.61 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46% #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 12.61   Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 13.8   Florida State: -3.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 31
Florida State 16


Projected Total Points: 47
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Florida State11Florida31FloridaFlorida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida StateFlorida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida StateFlorida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21FloridaFlorida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17FloridaFlorida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41FloridaFlorida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida StateFlorida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida StateFlorida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida StateFlorida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida StateFlorida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida StateFlorida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37Florida
201111/26Florida7Florida State21Florida State
201011/27Florida State31Florida7Florida State
200911/28Florida37Florida State10Florida
200811/29Florida State15Florida45Florida
200711/24Florida45Florida State12Florida
200611/25Florida State14Florida21Florida
200511/26Florida34Florida State7Florida
200411/20Florida State13Florida20Florida
200311/29Florida34Florida State38Florida State
200111/17Florida37Florida State13Florida
200011/17Florida State30Florida7Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State1164 Overs
Florida1255 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 122 - 92 - 40 - 5
Road Teams12 - 119 - 25 - 04 - 2

(#19) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.61 #19
Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23
Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46% #11
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 3.12 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Florida     Ratings Matchup     Florida State
Power #19
#83
Off #52
#120
Def #44
#87
Talent #15
#9
SP+ #20
#83
SP+ Off #37
#114
SP+ Def #23
#58

Rematch from Week 14
Florida 17.5 (45.5)
Florida won at Florida State this year (31-11)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)
Florida State beat Florida in 2022 (45-38)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 38°

Team Information
Injuries: FLA | FSU
Depth Chart: FLA | FSU
Rosters: FLA | FSU
(#83) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.545 #83
Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58
Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida State Notes
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad


  
Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Aidan Warner215042%228034.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Treyaun Webb219314.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)39806420.777
Chimere Dike (Tr)42783218.644
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Jack Pyburn604100
Jordan Castell551009
Jaden Robinson524410
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Bryce Thornton412013

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Samuel Singleton219304.427
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)25311112.467
Hykeem Williams16187111.733
Landen Thomas14173112.435
Jalen Brown (Tr)87509.421

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Adam Fuller
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
Cam Riley (Tr)374101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)256430
Patrick Payton3210440
Darrell Jackson284441
Edwin Joseph134201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omar Graham Jr.374113
Quindarrius Jones111003
Shyheim Brown621002