Florida at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Florida -17.5 (45.5) (-1000)  Open: -15.0 | 45.5
Florida 31 - Florida State: 11

 
Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 5) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Home Game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida -15  (SP+ FLA -17)

Projected Score: FLA: 32 - FSU: 17 (48)
FLA Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
FLA Travel: 129 miles
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Florida vs Miami+2.554.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/7 Florida vs Samford-38.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/14 Florida vs Texas A&M+4.547.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 Florida at Mississippi State-6.558.0W 45 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Florida vs UCF+1.062.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/12 Florida at Tennessee+13.554.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 10/19 Florida vs Kentucky+2.542.5W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Florida vs Georgia+14.552.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 11/9 Florida at Texas+24.548.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida vs LSU+3.057.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Florida vs Ole Miss+13.057.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Florida at Florida State-17.545.5W 31 - 11UY
Fri 12/20 Florida vs Tulane-10.050.5W 33 - 8UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24UN
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36UY
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7OY
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1328.327.543%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18
FSU Defense122822.740.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1323.127.843.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
FSU Offense1215.416.435.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 12.61  #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48  #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04  #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46%  #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 12.61   Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 13.8   Florida State: -3.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545  #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77  #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02  #87
2024 Talent Rating: 950.00  #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43  #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1  #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 32
Florida State 17


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida State 30
Florida 23

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Florida 27
Florida State 21

Total Points: 48
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Florida State11Florida31Florida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21Florida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17Florida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41Florida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37
201111/26Florida7Florida State21
201011/27Florida State31Florida7
200911/28Florida37Florida State10
200811/29Florida State15Florida45
200711/24Florida45Florida State12
200611/25Florida State14Florida21
200511/26Florida34Florida State7
200411/20Florida State13Florida20
200311/29Florida34Florida State38
200111/17Florida37Florida State13
200011/17Florida State30Florida7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State1164 Overs
Florida1255 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 122 - 92 - 40 - 5
Road Teams12 - 119 - 25 - 04 - 2

(#19) FLA at (#83) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAFSU
Power RatePwr #19 #83
SP+SP+ #20 #83
Perf GradeGrade #29 #120
OffenseOff #25 #124
DefenseDef #63 #111
Spec TeamsST #50 #19
TalentTal #15 #9
Blue ChipsBC% #11 #13

Florida State Notes
(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #111
SuccessSuc #64 #56
ExplosiveExp #93 #114
PPAPPA #72 #112
PowerPwr #52 #87
SP+SP+ #37 #58
Pts POPPO #46 #46
HavocHav #68 #98
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #79 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #62
Run ExplRExp #82 #114
PPAExp #63 #109
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #81
Stuff RateStuff #77 #88
TackleTak -  #47
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #62 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #52
Pass ExplPExl #48 #120
PPAExp #73 #110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #18 #93
F7 HavocF7 #56 #77
DB HavocDB #90 #116
Florida State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatFSU OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #63
SuccessSuc #128 #95
ExplosiveExp #58 #32
PPAPPA #125 #53
PowerPwr #120 #44
SP+SP+ #114 #23
Pts POPPO #131 #14
HavocHav #129 #36
Florida State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #124 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #118
Run ExplRExp #118 #10
PPAExp #101 #73
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #78
Stuff RateStuff #85 #84
TackleTak -  #66
Florida State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatFSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #111 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #44
Pass ExplPExl #20 #87
PPAExp #130 #34
Pass Block/RushP Blk #76 #55
F7 HavocF7 #130 #37
DB HavocDB #62 #43
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 38°
Rematch from Week 14
Florida 17.5 (45.5)
Florida won at Florida State this year (31-11)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)
Florida State beat Florida in 2022 (45-38)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Graham Mertz729477%791628.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Montrell Johnson10059365.971
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)39806420.777
Chimere Dike (Tr)42783218.644
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Shemar James644223
Jack Pyburn604100
Jordan Castell551009
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Jason Marshall Jr.202034

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lawrance Toafili10945634.228
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Khi Douglas32519416.271
Malik Benson (Tr)25311112.467
Lawrance Toafili2521508.632
Hykeem Williams16187111.733

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Azareye'h Thomas512024
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick Payton3210440
Joshua Farmer288460
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)256430
Darrell Jackson284441
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fentrell Cypress II241015
Azareye'h Thomas512024
Kevin Knowles II311114