Florida at Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Texas LonghornsTexas logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Texas -24.5 (48.5) (-2500)  Open: -21.5 | 47.5
Texas 49 - Florida: 17  (SEC)

 
Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
FLA 2nd straight Road Game
TEX coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas -14  (SP+ TEX -10)

Projected Score: FLA: 17 - TEX: 31 (49)
TEX Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
FLA Travel: 921 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (41 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Florida vs Miami+2.554.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/7 Florida vs Samford-38.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/14 Florida vs Texas A&M+4.547.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 9/21 Florida at Mississippi State-6.558.0W 45 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Florida vs UCF+1.062.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/12 Florida at Tennessee+13.554.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 10/19 Florida vs Kentucky+2.542.5W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Florida vs Georgia+14.552.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 11/9 Florida at Texas+24.548.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida vs LSU+3.057.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Florida vs Ole Miss+13.057.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Florida at Florida State-17.545.5W 31 - 11UY
Fri 12/20 Florida vs Tulane-10.050.5W 33 - 8UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas vs Colorado State-35.559.0W 52 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Texas at Michigan-7.042.0W 31 - 12OY
Sat 9/14 Texas vs UTSA-36.556.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Texas vs UL Monroe-43.554.5W 51 - 3UY
Sat 9/28 Texas vs Mississippi State-37.058.5W 35 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Texas vs Oklahoma-16.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Texas vs Georgia-4.057.0L 15 - 30UN
Sat 10/26 Texas at Vanderbilt-17.050.5W 27 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Texas vs Florida-24.548.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 11/16 Texas at Arkansas-13.057.5W 20 - 10UN
Sat 11/23 Texas vs Kentucky-18.547.0W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/30 Texas at Texas A&M-4.549.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 12/7 Texas vs Georgia-2.550.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 12/21 Texas vs Clemson-13.549.5W 38 - 24OY
Wed 1/1 Texas vs Arizona State-13.552.5W 39 - 31ON
Fri 1/10 Texas vs Ohio State+6.551.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)3349% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)15.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1328.327.543%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18
TEX Defense1615.313.538%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1323.127.843.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
TEX Offense163340.946.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 12.61  #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48  #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04  #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46%  #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 12.61   Texas: 27.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 13.8   Texas: 24.1




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 27.23  #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40  #3
2024 Talent Rating: 1014.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66  #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1  #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8  #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 31
Florida 17


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas 25
Florida 21

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Texas 31
Florida 21

Total Points: 52
Texas Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.9
Defense: 15.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Florida29Texas21Texas -4.5Florida42.5Over
202411/09Texas49Florida17Texas -24.5Texas48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas112 Overs
Florida110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#19) FLA at (#3) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLATEX
Power RatePwr #19 #3
SP+SP+ #20 #7
Perf GradeGrade #29 #5
OffenseOff #25 #18
DefenseDef #63 #1
Spec TeamsST #50 #33
TalentTal #15 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #11 #4
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #1
SuccessSuc #64 #22
ExplosiveExp #93 #1
PPAPPA #72 #3
PowerPwr #52 #3
SP+SP+ #37 #2
Pts POPPO #46 #3
HavocHav #68 #4
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #79 #15
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #61
Run ExplRExp #82 #3
PPAExp #63 #3
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #33
Stuff RateStuff #77 #31
TackleTak -  #35
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #62 #1
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #7
Pass ExplPExl #48 #14
PPAExp #73 #3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #18 #5
F7 HavocF7 #56 #8
DB HavocDB #90 #17
Texas on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTEX OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #63
SuccessSuc #27 #95
ExplosiveExp #47 #32
PPAPPA #39 #53
PowerPwr #31 #44
SP+SP+ #13 #23
Pts POPPO #54 #14
HavocHav #77 #36
Texas Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TEX OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #25 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #118
Run ExplRExp #96 #10
PPAExp #69 #73
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #78
Stuff RateStuff #101 #84
TackleTak -  #66
Texas Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTEX OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #61 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #44
Pass ExplPExl #28 #87
PPAExp #34 #34
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #55
F7 HavocF7 #97 #37
DB HavocDB #41 #43
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 74°
Rematch from Week 11
Texas -24.5 (48.5)
Texas won vs Florida this year (49-17)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Florida last year (49-17)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Graham Mertz729477%791628.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Montrell Johnson10059365.971
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)39806420.777
Chimere Dike (Tr)42783218.644
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Shemar James644223
Jack Pyburn604100
Jordan Castell551009
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)681005
Jason Marshall Jr.202034

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Quinn Ewers29344566%347231127.8
Arch Manning619068%9389210.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner226106454.743
Jaydon Blue13473085.477
Jerrick Gibson7837744.825
Arch Manning2510844.367
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)58987917.054
Gunnar Helm60786713.149
Isaiah Bond (Tr)34540515.956
DeAndre Moore Jr.39455711.749

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Michael Taaffe7862110
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)694016
Jahdae Barron6731210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons4814992
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Trey Moore (Tr)3611761
Barryn Sorrell43116121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahdae Barron6731210
Michael Taaffe7862110
Malik Muhammad361008