Kentucky at Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
Kentucky -2.5 (42.5) (-130) Open: -1.0
Florida 48 - Kentucky: 20 (SEC)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Florida -12 (SP+ FLA -8)
Projected Score: UK: 16 - FLA: 28 (44)
UK Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UK Travel: 592 miles

Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UK Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Southern Miss	-25.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-9.5	41.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Georgia	+24.0	45.0	L 12 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky vs Ohio	-19.0	42.0	W 41 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+15.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-12.5	44.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Florida	-2.5	42.5	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Auburn	-2.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17.5	45.5	L 18 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kentucky vs Murray State	-41.5	54.5	W 48 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky at Texas	+18.5	47.0	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	+3.5	48.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Florida vs Miami	+2.5	54.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/7	Florida vs Samford	-38.5	55.5	W 45 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida vs Texas A&M	+4.5	47.0	L 20 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	Florida at Mississippi State	-6.5	58.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Florida vs UCF	+1.0	62.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Florida at Tennessee	+13.5	54.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida vs Kentucky	+2.5	42.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Florida vs Georgia	+14.5	52.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Florida at Texas	+24.5	48.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Florida vs Ole Miss	+13.0	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida at Florida State	-17.5	45.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Florida vs Tulane	-10.0	50.5	W 33 - 8	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)	20.6	47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)	22.1	49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)	28.3	45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)	23.1	49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Offense	12	20.6	18	41.5%	3.49	1.9	19	331	146	185	4	54%	46%	47%	35%	19%	.09
FLA Defense	13	23.1	21	43.9%	3.12	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Defense	12	22.1	31	46%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	42%	17%	.16
FLA Offense	13	28.3	29.3	43%	4.17	1.4	19	389	164	226	4.6	54%	46%	45%	41%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kentucky	12	29:32	19.4	34%	44%	6.3	52.1	1.9	1.3	5.6	1.8	2	27
Florida	13	28:35	19.2	39%	47%	5.9	54	1.4	1.9	6.4	3.1	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Offense	12	54% (37)	47% (31)	36.7	146.4	4	11 (116)	.05 (107)	3.02 (71)	73% (71)	13% (120)	0.73 (133)
FLA Defense	13	51% (71)	49% (118)	-	-	-	-	.13 (73)	3.06 (78)	67% (29)	11% (37)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Defense	12	58% (129)	49% (122)	-	-	-	-	.14 (75)	3 (67)	78% (101)	12% (32)	0.88 (24)
FLA Offense	13	54% (42)	45% (54)	35.4	163.7	4.6	26 (36)	.14 (63)	3.04 (66)	79% (27)	9% (56)	0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Offense	12	46% (97)	35% (123)	13.9	26	184.8	7.1	13.3	15 (98)	17 (127)	.13 (117)	1.9 (10)	33% (92)	28% (104)	.18 (114)	7% (103)	2.1 (46)
FLA Defense	13	49% (67)	39% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.16 (34)	1.6 (87)	31% (86)	37% (124)	.42 (108)	7% (43)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Defense	12	42% (7)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.19 (46)	1.5 (27)	29% (109)	31% (83)	.3 (68)	5% (95)	2 (61)
FLA Offense	13	46% (91)	41% (82)	16	26.1	225.7	8.7	14.1	18 (68)	14 (115)	.25 (73)	1.6 (48)	31% (54)	28% (105)	.22 (107)	7% (90)	1.8 (118)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.14 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28% #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.14 Florida: 15.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 5.5 Florida: 13.8

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.705 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Florida 28
Kentucky 16

Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Kentucky 22
Florida 20

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Florida 28
Kentucky 21

Total Points: 49

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Florida	48	Kentucky	20	Kentucky -2.5	Florida	42.5	Over
2023	09/30	Kentucky	33	Florida	14	Kentucky -1	Kentucky	44.0	Over
2022	09/10	Florida	16	Kentucky	26	Florida -6	Kentucky	53.0	Under
2021	10/02	Kentucky	20	Florida	13	Florida -7.5	Kentucky	56.5	Under
2020	11/28	Florida	34	Kentucky	10	Florida -23.5	Florida	60.5	Under
2019	09/14	Kentucky	21	Florida	29	Florida -10	Kentucky	46.5	Over
2018	09/08	Florida	16	Kentucky	27	Florida -13.5	Kentucky	52.5	Under
2017	09/23	Kentucky	27	Florida	28	Florida -3	Kentucky	44.0	Over
2016	09/10	Florida	45	Kentucky	7	Florida -16.5	Florida	48.5	Over
2015	09/19	Kentucky	9	Florida	14	Florida -4.5	Florida	52.5	Under
2014	09/13	Florida	36	Kentucky	30	Florida -17	Kentucky	0
2013	09/28	Kentucky	7	Florida	24	Florida -12.5	Florida	0
2012	09/22	Florida	38	Kentucky	0
2011	09/24	Kentucky	10	Florida	48
2010	09/25	Florida	48	Kentucky	14
2009	09/26	Kentucky	7	Florida	41
2008	10/25	Florida	63	Kentucky	5
2007	10/20	Kentucky	37	Florida	45
2006	09/23	Florida	26	Kentucky	7
2005	09/24	Kentucky	28	Florida	49
2004	09/25	Florida	20	Kentucky	3
2003	09/27	Kentucky	21	Florida	24
2002	09/28	Florida	41	Kentucky	34
2001	09/22	Kentucky	10	Florida	44
2000	09/22	Florida	59	Kentucky	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	21	5	5 Overs
Kentucky	4	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3

(#54) UK at (#19) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UK	FLA
Power RatePwr	#54	#19
SP+SP+	#45	#20
Perf GradeGrade	#83	#29
OffenseOff	#95	#25
DefenseDef	#75	#63
Spec TeamsST	#32	#50
TalentTal	#26	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	#21	#11

Kentucky Notes
(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#95	#63
SuccessSuc	#89	#95
ExplosiveExp	#123	#32
PPAPPA	#118	#53
PowerPwr	#96	#44
SP+SP+	#88	#23
Pts POPPO	#104	#14
HavocHav	#121	#36

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#31	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#118
Run ExplRExp	#133	#10
PPAExp	#107	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#78
Stuff RateStuff	#78	#84
TackleTak	-	#66

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#10	#87
PPAExp	#117	#34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#55
F7 HavocF7	#120	#37
DB HavocDB	#103	#43

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Perf GradePerf	#25	#75
SuccessSuc	#64	#111
ExplosiveExp	#93	#9
PPAPPA	#72	#62
PowerPwr	#52	#62
SP+SP+	#37	#26
Pts POPPO	#46	#31
HavocHav	#68	#56

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#79	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#122
Run ExplRExp	#82	#24
PPAExp	#63	#75
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#48
TackleTak	-	#104

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#27
PPAExp	#73	#46
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#23
F7 HavocF7	#56	#32
DB HavocDB	#90	#95

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 68° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Kentucky 2.5 (42.5)
Florida won vs Kentucky this year (48-20)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Kentucky last year (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2022 (26-16)

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	125	218	57%	1593	10	8	7.3
Cutter Boley	26	53	49%	338	2	4	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Wilcox	92	590	2	6.4	50
Demie Sumo	129	586	5	4.5	22
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	49	183	2	3.7	24
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	90	131	0	1.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	47	715	2	15.2	42
Barion Brown	29	361	3	12.4	63
Jay Maclin	13	313	4	24.1	83
Demie Sumo	20	154	0	7.7	18

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Jordan Lovett	63	1	0	0	1
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
Zion Childress	55	6	1	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Weaver	31	7	4	4	1
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Tre'Vonn Rybka	34	5	3	2	1
Octavious Oxendine	20	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Terhyon Nichols	10	0	0	5
Maxwell Hairston	19	1	1	4
J.Q. Hardaway	47	0	0	3

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	115	192	60%	1915	12	9	10.0
Graham Mertz	72	94	77%	791	6	2	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	133	673	7	5.1	55
Montrell Johnson	100	593	6	5.9	71
Ja'Kobi Jackson	93	500	7	5.4	20
D.J. Lagway	51	101	0	2.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)	39	806	4	20.7	77
Chimere Dike (Tr)	42	783	2	18.6	44
Eugene Wilson	19	266	1	14.0	85
Hayden Hansen	15	207	1	13.8	40

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	0	5
Shemar James	64	4	2	2	3
Jack Pyburn	60	4	1	0	0
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyreak Sapp	46	13	7	5	0
George Gumbs	36	9	6	4	2
Caleb Banks	21	7	5	6	1
Jaden Robinson	52	4	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	9
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	5
Jason Marshall Jr.	20	2	3	4