UCF at Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
UCF -1 (62.0) (-112) Open: -1.0
Florida 24 - UCF: 13

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
FLA coming off BYE
Our Line: Florida -14 (SP+ FLA -11)
Projected Score: UCF: 23 - FLA: 37 (60)
UCF Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UCF Travel: 100 miles

Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Florida vs Miami	+2.5	54.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/7	Florida vs Samford	-38.5	55.5	W 45 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida vs Texas A&M	+4.5	47.0	L 20 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	Florida at Mississippi State	-6.5	58.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Florida vs UCF	+1.0	62.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Florida at Tennessee	+13.5	54.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida vs Kentucky	+2.5	42.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Florida vs Georgia	+14.5	52.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Florida at Texas	+24.5	48.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Florida vs Ole Miss	+13.0	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida at Florida State	-17.5	45.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Florida vs Tulane	-10.0	50.5	W 33 - 8	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)	28.3	45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)	23.1	49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	12	30.4	27	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21
FLA Defense	13	23.1	21	43.9%	3.12	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	12	26.9	32.4	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16
FLA Offense	13	28.3	29.3	43%	4.17	1.4	19	389	164	226	4.6	54%	46%	45%	41%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6
Florida	13	28:35	19.2	39%	47%	5.9	54	1.4	1.9	6.4	3.1	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)
FLA Defense	13	51% (71)	49% (118)	-	-	-	-	.13 (73)	3.06 (78)	67% (29)	11% (37)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)
FLA Offense	13	54% (42)	45% (54)	35.4	163.7	4.6	26 (36)	.14 (63)	3.04 (66)	79% (27)	9% (56)	0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)
FLA Defense	13	49% (67)	39% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.16 (34)	1.6 (87)	31% (86)	37% (124)	.42 (108)	7% (43)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)
FLA Offense	13	46% (91)	41% (82)	16	26.1	225.7	8.7	14.1	18 (68)	14 (115)	.25 (73)	1.6 (48)	31% (54)	28% (105)	.22 (107)	7% (90)	1.8 (118)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98 Florida: 15.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8 Florida: 13.8

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.705 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida 37
UCF 23

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida 32
UCF 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Florida 29
UCF 26

Total Points: 55

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Florida	24	UCF	13	UCF -1	Florida	62.0	Under
2021	12/23	Florida	17	UCF	29	Florida -7.0	UCF	56.0	Under
2006	09/09	Florida	42	UCF	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	2	1	0 Overs
UCF	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#58) UCF at (#19) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	FLA
Power RatePwr	#58	#19
SP+SP+	#61	#20
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#29
OffenseOff	#52	#25
DefenseDef	#47	#63
Spec TeamsST	#117	#50
TalentTal	#31	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#11

UCF Notes
(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	FLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#63
SuccessSuc	#28	#95
ExplosiveExp	#73	#32
PPAPPA	#58	#53
PowerPwr	#64	#44
SP+SP+	#55	#23
Pts POPPO	#86	#14
HavocHav	#51	#36

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#15	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#118
Run ExplRExp	#11	#10
PPAExp	#7	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#78
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#84
TackleTak	-	#66

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#87
PPAExp	#123	#34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#55
F7 HavocF7	#66	#37
DB HavocDB	#48	#43

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#25	#47
SuccessSuc	#64	#45
ExplosiveExp	#93	#95
PPAPPA	#72	#63
PowerPwr	#52	#67
SP+SP+	#37	#61
Pts POPPO	#46	#118
HavocHav	#68	#64

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#79	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#12
Run ExplRExp	#82	#90
PPAExp	#63	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#17
TackleTak	-	#55

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#64
PPAExp	#73	#81
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#65
F7 HavocF7	#56	#28
DB HavocDB	#90	#118

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 75° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.035

Rematch from Week 6
UCF 1.0 (62.0)
Florida won vs UCF this year (24-13)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat UCF last year (24-13)

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Addison Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	115	192	60%	1915	12	9	10.0
Graham Mertz	72	94	77%	791	6	2	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	133	673	7	5.1	55
Montrell Johnson	100	593	6	5.9	71
Ja'Kobi Jackson	93	500	7	5.4	20
D.J. Lagway	51	101	0	2.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)	39	806	4	20.7	77
Chimere Dike (Tr)	42	783	2	18.6	44
Eugene Wilson	19	266	1	14.0	85
Hayden Hansen	15	207	1	13.8	40

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	0	5
Shemar James	64	4	2	2	3
Jack Pyburn	60	4	1	0	0
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyreak Sapp	46	13	7	5	0
George Gumbs	36	9	6	4	2
Caleb Banks	21	7	5	6	1
Jaden Robinson	52	4	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	9
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	5
Jason Marshall Jr.	20	2	3	4