Florida at Tennessee - 2024 Matchup Preview

Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers(#12)

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Tennessee -13.5 (54.5) (-650) Open: -15.5 | 54.5
Tennessee 23 - Florida: 17 (SEC)

Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Tennessee -8 (SP+ TENN -8)
Projected Score: FLA: 24 - TENN: 32 (56)
TENN Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
FLA Travel: 445 miles

Volunteers (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (27 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (43 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FLA Players
TENN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Florida vs Miami	+2.5	54.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/7	Florida vs Samford	-38.5	55.5	W 45 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida vs Texas A&M	+4.5	47.0	L 20 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	Florida at Mississippi State	-6.5	58.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Florida vs UCF	+1.0	62.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Florida at Tennessee	+13.5	54.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida vs Kentucky	+2.5	42.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Florida vs Georgia	+14.5	52.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Florida at Texas	+24.5	48.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Florida vs Ole Miss	+13.0	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida at Florida State	-17.5	45.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Florida vs Tulane	-10.0	50.5	W 33 - 8	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Tennessee vs Chattanooga	-38.5	56.5	W 69 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Tennessee vs NC State	-10.0	60.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Tennessee vs Kent State	-49.5	61.5	W 71 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Tennessee at Oklahoma	-6.0	57.0	W 25 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Tennessee at Arkansas	-14.0	57.5	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/12	Tennessee vs Florida	-13.5	54.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Tennessee vs Alabama	+3.5	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Tennessee vs Kentucky	-17.5	45.5	W 28 - 18	O	N
Sat 11/9	Tennessee vs Mississippi State	-26.5	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/16	Tennessee at Georgia	+8.5	47.0	L 17 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	Tennessee vs UTEP	-41.5	54.0	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Tennessee at Vanderbilt	-9.5	45.5	W 36 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/21	Tennessee at Ohio State	+7.5	47.0	L 17 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)	28.3	45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)	23.1	49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9
TENN	#46 (.23)	47% (18)	35.7	48% (23)	3.4 (13)	227	47% (19)	221	4.02 (55)	#13 (.07)	38% (17)	16.1	36% (9)	39% (48)	3.03 (10)	66.8	1.2	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9
TENN	#46 (.23)	47% (18)		48% (23)	3.4 (13)	227	47% (19)	221	4.02 (55)	#13 (.07)	38% (17)		36% (9)	39% (48)	3.03 (10)	66.8	1.2	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Offense	13	28.3	27.5	43%	4.17	1.4	19	389	164	226	4.6	54%	46%	45%	41%	16%	.18
TENN Defense	13	16.1	9.9	37.6%	3.03	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	36%	39%	21%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Defense	13	23.1	27.8	43.9%	3.12	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	39%	18%	.14
TENN Offense	13	35.7	43.4	47.4%	4.02	1.2	23	448	227	221	5.1	57%	43%	48%	47%	12%	.23

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida	13	28:35	19.2	39%	47%	5.9	54	1.4	1.9	6.4	3.1	1	30.2
Tennessee	13	29:35	23.3	47%	61%	8.1	66.8	1.2	1.6	7.2	2.2	2	31.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Offense	13	54% (42)	45% (54)	35.4	163.7	4.6	26 (36)	.14 (63)	3.04 (66)	79% (27)	9% (56)	0.94 (82)
TENN Defense	13	48% (42)	36% (9)	-	-	-	-	.01 (17)	2.61 (17)	62% (15)	14% (5)	0.98 (65)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Defense	13	51% (71)	49% (118)	-	-	-	-	.13 (73)	3.06 (78)	67% (29)	11% (37)	0.84 (10)
TENN Offense	13	57% (23)	48% (23)	44.7	226.8	5.1	34 (10)	.18 (39)	3.4 (13)	86% (2)	8% (33)	0.87 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Offense	13	46% (91)	41% (82)	16	26.1	225.7	8.7	14.1	18 (68)	14 (115)	.25 (73)	1.6 (48)	31% (54)	28% (105)	.22 (107)	7% (90)	1.8 (118)
TENN Defense	13	51% (87)	39% (48)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.16 (32)	1.5 (38)	33% (46)	31% (74)	.33 (80)	7% (39)	2 (44)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Defense	13	49% (67)	39% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.16 (34)	1.6 (87)	31% (86)	37% (124)	.42 (108)	7% (43)	2 (58)
TENN Offense	13	43% (111)	47% (19)	18.2	28.7	221.2	7.7	12.2	21 (51)	7 (26)	.29 (51)	1.5 (113)	29% (25)	34% (41)	.38 (50)	4% (13)	1.9 (114)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 12.61 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46% #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 12.61 Tennessee: 21.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 13.8 Tennessee: 22.0

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.065 #14
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Tennessee 32
Florida 24

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Tennessee 40
Florida 22

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Tennessee 32
Florida 20

Total Points: 52

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.4
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.9

Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Tennessee	23	Florida	17	Tennessee -13.5	Florida	54.5	Under
2023	09/16	Florida	29	Tennessee	16	Tennessee -5	Florida	57.0	Under
2022	09/24	Tennessee	38	Florida	33	Tennessee -11	Florida	62.0	Over
2021	09/25	Florida	38	Tennessee	14	Florida -19	Florida	65.0	Under
2020	12/05	Tennessee	19	Florida	31	Florida -18.5	Tennessee	63.0	Under
2019	09/21	Florida	34	Tennessee	3	Florida -12.5	Florida	49.5	Under
2018	09/22	Tennessee	21	Florida	47	Florida -3.5	Florida	46.0	Over
2017	09/16	Florida	26	Tennessee	20	Florida -6.5	Tennessee	50.5	Under
2016	09/24	Tennessee	38	Florida	28	Tennessee -8	Tennessee	42.5	Over
2015	09/26	Florida	28	Tennessee	27	Florida -3	Tennessee	50.5	Over
2014	10/04	Tennessee	9	Florida	10	Florida -1.5	Tennessee	0
2013	09/21	Florida	31	Tennessee	17	Florida -15.5	Tennessee	0
2012	09/15	Tennessee	20	Florida	37
2011	09/17	Florida	33	Tennessee	23
2010	09/18	Tennessee	17	Florida	31
2009	09/19	Florida	23	Tennessee	13
2008	09/20	Tennessee	6	Florida	30
2007	09/15	Florida	59	Tennessee	20
2006	09/16	Tennessee	20	Florida	21
2005	09/17	Florida	16	Tennessee	7
2004	09/18	Tennessee	30	Florida	28
2003	09/20	Florida	10	Tennessee	24
2002	09/21	Tennessee	13	Florida	30
2001	12/01	Florida	32	Tennessee	34
2000	09/15	Tennessee	23	Florida	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Tennessee	6	6	4 Overs
Florida	19	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	6 - 6	3 - 5	3 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 14	6 - 6	1 - 3	5 - 3

(#19) FLA at (#14) TENN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FLA	TENN
Power RatePwr	#19	#14
SP+SP+	#20	#9
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#21
OffenseOff	#25	#57
DefenseDef	#63	#19
Spec TeamsST	#50	#42
TalentTal	#15	#12
Blue ChipsBC%	#11	#12

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	TENN Def
Perf GradePerf	#25	#19
SuccessSuc	#64	#17
ExplosiveExp	#93	#58
PPAPPA	#72	#13
PowerPwr	#52	#16
SP+SP+	#37	#6
Pts POPPO	#46	#10
HavocHav	#68	#5

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	TENN Def
Run GameRun	#79	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#9
Run ExplRExp	#82	#65
PPAExp	#63	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#15
TackleTak	-	#29

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	TENN Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#48
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#38
PPAExp	#73	#32
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#18	#13
F7 HavocF7	#56	#5
DB HavocDB	#90	#39

Tennessee on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	FLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#57	#63
SuccessSuc	#18	#95
ExplosiveExp	#128	#32
PPAPPA	#46	#53
PowerPwr	#61	#44
SP+SP+	#23	#23
Pts POPPO	#55	#14
HavocHav	#15	#36

Tennessee Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#25	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#23	#118
Run ExplRExp	#115	#10
PPAExp	#39	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#78
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#84
TackleTak	-	#66

Tennessee Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#19	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#113	#87
PPAExp	#51	#34
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#75	#55
F7 HavocF7	#33	#37
DB HavocDB	#13	#43

Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64°

Rematch from Week 7
Tennessee -13.5 (54.5)
Tennessee won vs Florida this year (23-17)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Florida last year (23-17)
Florida beat Tennessee in 2023 (29-16)
Tennessee beat Florida in 2022 (38-33)

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	115	192	60%	1915	12	9	10.0
Graham Mertz	72	94	77%	791	6	2	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	133	673	7	5.1	55
Montrell Johnson	100	593	6	5.9	71
Ja'Kobi Jackson	93	500	7	5.4	20
D.J. Lagway	51	101	0	2.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)	39	806	4	20.7	77
Chimere Dike (Tr)	42	783	2	18.6	44
Eugene Wilson	19	266	1	14.0	85
Hayden Hansen	15	207	1	13.8	40

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	0	5
Shemar James	64	4	2	2	3
Jack Pyburn	60	4	1	0	0
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyreak Sapp	46	13	7	5	0
George Gumbs	36	9	6	4	2
Caleb Banks	21	7	5	6	1
Jaden Robinson	52	4	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	9
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	5
Jason Marshall Jr.	20	2	3	4

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nico Iamaleava	213	334	64%	2616	19	5	7.8
Gaston Moore	16	27	59%	201	2	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Sampson	258	1491	22	5.8	56
DeSean Bishop	74	455	3	6.1	53
Nico Iamaleava	109	364	3	3.3	31
Peyton Lewis	64	339	3	5.3	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dont'E Thornton	26	661	6	25.4	86
Bru McCoy	39	472	2	12.1	42
Squirrel White	34	381	2	11.2	45
Chris Brazzell II (Tr)	29	333	2	11.5	53

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Arion Carter	68	7	0	3	6
Will Brooks	59	4	1	1	5
Jermod McCoy (Tr)	44	1	0	0	7
Jeremiah Telander	43	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Pearce Jr.	38	13	8	10	1
Omarr Norman-Lott	18	4	4	3	0
Jaxson Moi (Tr)	16	5	2	0	1
Tyre West	16	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermod McCoy (Tr)	44	1	0	0	7
Arion Carter	68	7	0	3	6
Will Brooks	59	4	1	1	5