West Virginia at UCF - 2023 Matchup Preview
West Virginia logo West Virginia Mountaineers at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
UCF -6.5 (59.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
West Virginia 41 - UCF: 28  (Big 12)

 
Mountaineers (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Neal Brown (24 - 26)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 13.9 MPH
Our Line: UCF -2  (SP+ WVU -1)
Projected Score: WVU: 27 - UCF: 29 (56)
UCF Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
WVU Travel: 766 miles
Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
West Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 West Virginia at Penn State+21.048.0L 15 - 38ON
Sat 9/9 West Virginia vs Duquesne-38.555.5W 56 - 17OY
Sat 9/16 West Virginia vs Pittsburgh-2.548.0W 17 - 6UY
Sat 9/23 West Virginia vs Texas Tech+6.053.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/30 West Virginia at TCU+14.052.0W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 West Virginia at Houston-3.049.5L 39 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 West Virginia vs Oklahoma State-3.048.0L 34 - 48ON
Sat 10/28 West Virginia at UCF+6.559.5W 41 - 28OY
Sat 11/4 West Virginia vs BYU-13.048.5W 37 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 West Virginia at Oklahoma+13.559.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 11/18 West Virginia vs Cincinnati-4.552.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/25 West Virginia at Baylor-6.553.5W 34 - 31ON
Wed 12/27 West Virginia vs North Carolina-4.562.0W 30 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule
UCF's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 UCF vs Kent State-35.054.0W 56 - 6OY
Sat 9/9 UCF at Boise State-3.058.5W 18 - 16UN
Sat 9/16 UCF vs Villanova-26.554.0W 48 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 UCF at Kansas State+6.053.5L 31 - 44ON
Sat 9/30 UCF vs Baylor-8.056.5L 35 - 36ON
Sat 10/7 UCF at Kansas-2.065.0L 22 - 51ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 UCF at Oklahoma+17.067.5L 29 - 31UY
Sat 10/28 UCF vs West Virginia-6.559.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 11/4 UCF at Cincinnati-3.559.5W 28 - 26UN
Sat 11/11 UCF vs Oklahoma State+2.563.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 11/18 UCF at Texas Tech+2.059.0L 23 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 UCF vs Houston-15.561.5W 27 - 13UN
Fri 12/22 UCF vs Georgia Tech-6.066.5L 17 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WVU.2143%21.845%3.0817242%2274.2.2144%30.845%43%3.8531.51.3
UCF.2447%24.351%3.3822844%2414.08.2141%23.640%43%3.5346.41.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WVU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WVU Offense1221.820.843.3%4.21.5233981722274.648%51%45%42%15%.21
UCF Defense1423.615.741.2%3.531.5 - - - - - 51%49%40%43%16%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WVU Defense1230.833.544.3%3.81.3 - - - - - 48%52%45%43%15%.21
UCF Offense1424.332.647.4%4.081.5244692282415.253%46%51%44%14%.24

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
West Virginia1231:192341%69%6.4531.51.35.72.2226.9
UCF1430:5124.246%63%4.946.41.51.551.5228
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WVU Offense1248%45%37.2171.54.624.23.0870%8%1.01
UCF Defense1451%40% - - - - .162.9566%10%1.12
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WVU Defense1248%45% - - - - .133.0776%10%0.99
UCF Offense1453%51%43.92285.235.293.3873%10%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WVU Offense1251%42%21.335.5226.76.410.72012.241.530%34%.327%1.8
UCF Defense1449%43% - - - - - - 6.31.533%30%.296%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WVU Defense1252%43% - - - - - - 4.31.630%32%.364%2.1
UCF Offense1446%44%20.832.2241.27.511.6229.211.427%32%.274%1.9

West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 3.47  #45
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.84  #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 11.21  #88
2023 Talent Rating: 666.23  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #43
West Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
West Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4  #44
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #38
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 581.24

Power Ratings Matchup
West Virginia: 3.47   UCF: 6.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
West Virginia: 5.4   UCF: 4.5




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 6.465  #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78  #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34  #89
2023 Talent Rating: 653.97  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 581.24


West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.5

West Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 29
West Virginia 27

Projected Total Points: 56
UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18UCF45West Virginia13UCF -6.5UCF46.5Over
202411/23West Virginia31UCF21UCF -3West Virginia60.0Under
202310/28UCF28West Virginia41UCF -6.5West Virginia59.5Over
200409/11UCF20West Virginia45
200311/01West Virginia36UCF18
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF112 Overs
West Virginia421 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 31 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#45) WVU at (#46) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWVUUCF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #46
SP+SP+ #44 #48
Perf GradeGrade #46 #38
OffenseOff #31 #21
DefenseDef #85 #87
Spec TeamsST #127 #109
TalentTal #50 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #43 #53
West Virginia on Offense
CategoryCat
WVU OffUCF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #31 #87
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #32 #89
SP+SP+ #38 #54
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
West Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
WVU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #6 #90
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #88
West Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCat
WVU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #28 #64
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #8 #94
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
UCF on Offense
CategoryCatUCF OffWVU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #21 #85
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #23 #88
SP+SP+ #35 #63
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UCF Run Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffWVU Def
Run GameRun #10 #61
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #70
UCF Pass Game
CategoryCatUCF OffWVU Def
Pass GamePass #30 #99
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #14 #85
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

WVU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 9
UCF -6.5 (59.5)
West Virginia won at UCF this year (41-28)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat West Virginia last year (45-13)
West Virginia beat UCF in 2024 (31-21)
West Virginia beat UCF in 2023 (41-28)

  
WVU's OC Chad Scott (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Greene14727853%24061648.7
Nicco Marchiol305357%247234.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jahiem White10984247.753
CJ Donaldson171798114.732
Garrett Greene120772136.448
Justin Johnson3815013.930
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Carter (Tr)27501218.649
Hudson Clement22480421.870
Kole Taylor (Tr)35444412.743
Preston Fox26368214.234

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC ShaDon Brown (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lee Kpogba978381
Anthony Wilson (Tr)802004
Beanie Bishop (Tr)6710020
Ben Cutter566201
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Bartlett497521
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)236410
Lee Kpogba978381
Edward Vesterinen285310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beanie Bishop (Tr)6710020
Marcis Floyd505267
Malachi Ruffin370005

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Rhys Plumlee16125663%22711588.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)6410263%10659310.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
RJ Harvey2261416166.392
Johnny Richardson8757316.679
John Rhys Plumlee10650554.832
Xavier Townsend15163010.939
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Baker521139721.986
Kobe Hudson44900820.575
Xavier Townsend3332539.837
Alec Holler24244210.238

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Johnson1046301
Walter Yates681002
Lee Hunter5710211
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash5016921
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash5016921
Malachi Lawrence249651
Jason Johnson1046301
Lee Hunter5710211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Thornton220006
Quadric Bullard280003
Brandon Adams191012