Miami (OH) at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -8.5 (46.0) (-250) Open: -8.5 | 46.0
Miami (OH) 23 - Toledo: 14 (MAC Championship)

RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (26 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

M-OH 2nd straight Road Game
TOL is playing their 5th straight game
M-OH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -4 (SP+ TOL -0)
Projected Score: M-OH: 22 - TOL: 26 (49)
TOL Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
M-OH Travel: 159 miles

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
M-OH Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami (OH) at Miami	+16.5	45.0	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/9	Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	-7.0	45.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Miami (OH) at Cincinnati	+14.5	44.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Miami (OH) vs Delaware State	-40.5	49.5	W 62 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Miami (OH) at Kent State	-14.0	51.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green	-7.5	43.0	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Miami (OH) at Western Michigan	-7.5	46.0	W 34 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+2.0	46.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Miami (OH) at Ohio	+7.5	39.0	W 30 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8	Miami (OH) vs Akron	-17.5	37.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Miami (OH) vs Buffalo	-7.5	36.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-3.5	34.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
Sat 12/2	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+8.5	46.0	W 23 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/16	Miami (OH) vs App State	+6.5	41.0	L 9 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	25.6	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	15.9	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	32.3	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	20.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	25.6	25.6	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18
TOL Defense	14	20.3	20	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	15.9	20.7	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1
TOL Offense	14	32.3	42.7	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16 #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13 #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90 #20
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16 Toledo: 5.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7 Toledo: 4.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 5.635 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.6
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 26
Miami (OH) 22

Total Points: 49

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.7
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Toledo	30	Miami (OH)	20	Toledo	Toledo -4.5	Toledo	44.0	Over
2023	10/21	Miami (OH)	17	Toledo	21	Toledo	Toledo -2	Toledo	46.5	Under
2023	12/02	Toledo	14	Miami (OH)	23	Miami (OH)	Toledo -8.5	Miami (OH)	46.0	Under
2011	10/22	Toledo	49	Miami (OH)	28	Toledo
2009	10/31	Miami (OH)	31	Toledo	24	Miami (OH)
2008	11/21	Toledo	42	Miami (OH)	14	Toledo
2004	12/02	Miami (OH)	27	Toledo	35	Toledo
2004	11/02	Miami (OH)	23	Toledo	16	Miami (OH)
2002	10/26	Toledo	13	Miami (OH)	27	Miami (OH)

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	5	2	1 Overs
Miami (OH)	4	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 5	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#62) Miami (OH) Info
Power Rating: -0.16 #62
Offense Rating: 13.13 #100
Defense Rating: 3.90 #20
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #14
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50

Miami (OH) has won 4 straight
Miami (OH) has won 6 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 7 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Miami (OH) Highlights
Miami (OH) offense is explosive (#39)
Miami (OH) Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Miami (OH) defense does not give up big plays (#25)
Miami (OH) defense is really good in red zone (#102)
Miami (OH) Secondary is very good (#66)

Miami (OH) Deficiencies
Miami (OH) offense is really bad (#124)
Miami (OH) run game is really bad (#104)
Miami (OH) Does Not Stuff Runs (#126)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	TOL	M-OH
OverallOver	#17	#23
OffenseOff	#42	#60
DefenseDef	#9	#21
Special TeamsST	#32	#1
PassingPass	#21	#37
RushingRush	#41	#67
Run BlockRBLK	#83	#16
Pass BlockPBLK	#36	#76
Route RunningWR Rt	#37	#93
TacklingTkl	#9	#49
Run DefenseR Def	#13	#31
Pass Rush DefPRush	#6	#27
Coverage DefCov	#9	#30

Rematch from Week 14
Toledo -8.5 (46.0)
Miami (OH) won at Toledo this year (23-14)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Miami (OH) last year (30-20)
Miami (OH) beat Toledo in 2023 (23-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: M-OH | TOL
Depth Chart: M-OH | TOL
Rosters: M-OH | TOL

(#29) Toledo Info
Power Rating: 5.635 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Toledo has won 11 straight
Toledo has won 6 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Toledo Highlights
Toledo has Really Good Running Game (#28)
Toledo has a top Offensive Line (#91)
Toledo offense is good in red zone (#28)
Toledo Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Toledo has a really good defense (#59)
Toledo defense is really good in red zone (#57)
Toledo has a good pass defense (#7)
Toledo Secondary is very good (#73)

Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Toledo Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)

Miami (OH)'s OC Patrick Welsh

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	111	188	59%	1634	14	5	8.7
Aveon Smith	48	96	50%	638	2	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)	210	1075	13	5.1	66
Aveon Smith	75	280	1	3.7	50
Kenny Tracy	46	250	2	5.4	42
Keyon Mozee	34	151	2	4.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gage Larvadain	43	696	7	16.2	99
Cade McDonald	28	355	3	12.7	42
Joe Wilkins	25	343	1	13.7	49
Javon Tracy	21	331	1	15.8	52

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

Miami (OH)'s DC Bill Brechin

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Jacquez Warren	71	5	0	0	4
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caiden Woullard	41	12	10	9	1
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raion Strader	57	2	0	0	12
Yahsyn McKee	58	2	0	0	11
Austin Ertl	39	2	1	6	5

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8