Miami (OH) at Ball State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo   Miami (OH) RedHawks at Ball State Cardinals  Ball State logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Miami (OH) -3.5 (34.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Miami (OH) 17 - Ball State: 15  (Mid-American)

 
RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BALL 2nd straight Home Game
BALL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -11  (SP+ M-OH -18.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 25 - BALL: 14 (40)
M-OH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 60 miles
Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami (OH) at Miami+16.545.0L 3 - 38UN
Sat 9/9 Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.045.0W 41 - 28OY
Sat 9/16 Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.544.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/23 Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.549.5W 62 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.051.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/7 Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.543.0W 27 - 0UY
Sat 10/14 Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.546.0W 34 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.046.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.539.0W 30 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8 Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.537.5W 19 - 0UY
Wed 11/15 Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.536.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.534.5W 17 - 15UN
Sat 12/2 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.546.0W 23 - 14UY
Sat 12/16 Miami (OH) vs App State+6.541.0L 9 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Ball State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Ball State at Kentucky+25.049.0L 14 - 44ON
Sat 9/9 Ball State at Georgia+42.052.5L 3 - 45UY
Sat 9/16 Ball State vs Indiana State-26.045.0W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/23 Ball State vs Georgia Southern+6.060.0L 3 - 40UN
Sat 9/30 Ball State at Western Michigan+1.550.0L 24 - 42ON
Sat 10/7 Ball State at Eastern Michigan+2.543.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 10/14 Ball State vs Toledo+17.548.5L 6 - 13UY
Sat 10/21 Ball State vs Central Michigan+5.042.0W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1 Ball State at Bowling Green+4.539.5L 21 - 24OY
Tue 11/7 Ball State at Northern Illinois+9.543.5W 20 - 17UY
Sat 11/18 Ball State vs Kent State-10.541.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 11/25 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+3.534.5L 15 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH.137%23.536%2.8614138%1663.31.1541%21.739%43%3.1448.30.81.8
BALL.1140%15.841%3.2215840%2283.7.1643%29.845%41%3.5657.61.81.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1323.519.837.1%3.310.8173061411663.854%45%36%38%24%.1
BALL Defense1229.821.643%3.561.4 - - - - - 55%45%45%41%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1321.721.240.9%3.141.8 - - - - - 47%52%39%43%24%.15
BALL Offense1215.824.440.1%3.71.8213861582284.543%56%41%40%19%.11

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1330:0017.232%50%5.548.30.81.84.42.2129.9
Ball State1227:5921.336%32%6.157.61.81.45.42.1029.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1354%36%37.2140.83.814.062.8667%15%1.09
BALL Defense1255%45% - - - - .133.2671%9%0.95
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1347%39% - - - - .032.6777%13%0.82
BALL Offense1243%41%34.8157.84.514.093.2276%7%0.88

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1345%38%14.225.9165.56.411.7155.161.636%26%.188%1.9
BALL Defense1245%41% - - - - - - 7.231.432%30%.288%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1352%43% - - - - - - 11.331.633%33%.3311%2
BALL Offense1256%40%23.940.1228.25.79.51814.181.330%31%.2612%1.9

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16  #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13  #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90  #20
2023 Talent Rating: 408.16  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16   Ball State: -9.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7   Ball State: -14.9




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -9.17  #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25  #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12  #87
2023 Talent Rating: 403.54  #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9  #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6  #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 25
Ball State 14

Projected Total Points: 40
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Miami (OH)45Ball State24Miami (OH) -16.5Miami (OH)40.5Over
202411/05Ball State21Miami (OH)27Miami (OH) -12.5Ball State48.5Under
202311/25Ball State15Miami (OH)17Miami (OH) -3.5Ball State34.5Under
202211/22Miami (OH)18Ball State17Miami (OH) -2.5Ball State45.0Under
202110/23Ball State17Miami (OH)24Ball State -3.5Miami (OH)53.0Under
202011/04Miami (OH)38Ball State31Ball State -1Miami (OH)56.5Over
201911/29Ball State41Miami (OH)27Ball State -3Ball State55.5Over
201811/20Miami (OH)42Ball State21Miami (OH) -16.5Miami (OH)55.0Over
201711/21Ball State7Miami (OH)28Miami (OH) -17.5Miami (OH)54.5Under
201611/22Miami (OH)21Ball State20Miami (OH) -6Ball State55.0Under
201311/29Ball State55Miami (OH)14Ball State -34Ball State0
201211/23Miami (OH)24Ball State31
200811/11Miami (OH)16Ball State31
200708/30Ball State13Miami (OH)14
200610/28Miami (OH)17Ball State20
200310/18Ball State3Miami (OH)49
200109/29Ball State20Miami (OH)28
200010/06Miami (OH)10Ball State15
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State664 Overs
Miami (OH)1256 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 117 - 44 - 33 - 1
Road Teams11 - 74 - 71 - 33 - 4

(#62) M-OH at (#112) BALL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHBALL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #62 #112
SP+SP+ #52 #116
Perf GradeGrade #28 #117
OffenseOff #66 #101
DefenseDef #25 #119
Spec TeamsST #1 #132
TalentTal #109 #111
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Miami (OH) on Offense
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBALL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #66 #119
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #100 #87
SP+SP+ #106 #61
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Miami (OH) Run Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #95 #98
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #106
Miami (OH) Pass Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #48 #117
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #88 #103
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Ball State on Offense
CategoryCatBALL OffM-OH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #101 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #98 #20
SP+SP+ #131 #14
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Ball State Run Game
CategoryCat
BALL OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #52 #35
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
Ball State Pass Game
CategoryCatBALL OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #119 #36
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #23 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Miami (OH) 3.5 (34.5)
Miami (OH) won at Ball State this year (17-15)

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Ball State last year (45-24)
Miami (OH) beat Ball State in 2024 (27-21)
Miami (OH) beat Ball State in 2023 (17-15)

  
M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brett Gabbert11118859%16341458.7
Aveon Smith489650%638226.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2101075135.166
Aveon Smith7528013.750
Kenny Tracy4625025.442
Keyon Mozee3415124.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gage Larvadain43696716.299
Cade McDonald28355312.742
Joe Wilkins25343113.749
Javon Tracy21331115.852

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Salopek1379333
Ty Wise1229855
Jacquez Warren715004
Brian Ugwu62128100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caiden Woullard41121091
Ty Wise1229855
Brian Ugwu62128100
Matthew Salopek1379333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader5720012
Yahsyn McKee5820011
Austin Ertl392165

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kiael Kelly6612453%577234.7
Layne Hatcher (Tr)659866%583405.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)227104344.639
Kiael Kelly13472375.455
Vaughn Pemberton2313916.045
Rico Barfield259613.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Qian Magwood4135818.732
Ahmad Edwards31354111.457
Tanner Koziol3429538.726
Marquez Cooper (Tr)1916408.626

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keionte Newson807332
Cole Pearce7810362
Jordan Riley-Scott613008
Sidney Houston Jr.5917841
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sidney Houston Jr.5917841
Mikhari Sibblis (Tr)376410
Cole Pearce7810362
Keionte Newson807332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Riley-Scott613008
Tyler Potts273106
Thailand Baldwin300015