Miami (OH) at Ball State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Miami (OH) -3.5 (34.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Miami (OH) 17 - Ball State: 15 (Mid-American)

RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (26 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL 2nd straight Home Game
BALL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -11 (SP+ M-OH -18.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 25 - BALL: 14 (38)
M-OH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 60 miles

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 18 - 24 (21 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
M-OH Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami (OH) at Miami	+16.5	45.0	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/9	Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	-7.0	45.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Miami (OH) at Cincinnati	+14.5	44.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Miami (OH) vs Delaware State	-40.5	49.5	W 62 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Miami (OH) at Kent State	-14.0	51.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green	-7.5	43.0	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Miami (OH) at Western Michigan	-7.5	46.0	W 34 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+2.0	46.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Miami (OH) at Ohio	+7.5	39.0	W 30 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8	Miami (OH) vs Akron	-17.5	37.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Miami (OH) vs Buffalo	-7.5	36.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-3.5	34.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
Sat 12/2	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+8.5	46.0	W 23 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/16	Miami (OH) vs App State	+6.5	41.0	L 9 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	25.6	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	15.9	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	18.3	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	24.4	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	25.6	25.6	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18
BALL Defense	12	24.4	16.2	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	15.9	20.7	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1
BALL Offense	12	18.3	21.2	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16 #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13 #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90 #20
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16 Ball State: -9.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7 Ball State: -14.9

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -9.17 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.6
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 25
Ball State 14

Total Points: 38

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 18.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.2
Defense: 24.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.2

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/05	Ball State	21	Miami (OH)	27	Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) -12.5	Ball State	48.5	Under
2023	11/25	Ball State	15	Miami (OH)	17	Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) -3.5	Ball State	34.5	Under
2022	11/22	Miami (OH)	18	Ball State	17	Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) -2.5	Ball State	45.0	Under
2021	10/23	Ball State	17	Miami (OH)	24	Miami (OH)	Ball State -3.5	Miami (OH)	53.0	Under
2020	11/04	Miami (OH)	38	Ball State	31	Miami (OH)	Ball State -1	Miami (OH)	56.5	Over
2019	11/29	Ball State	41	Miami (OH)	27	Ball State	Ball State -3	Ball State	55.5	Over
2018	11/20	Miami (OH)	42	Ball State	21	Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) -16.5	Miami (OH)	55.0	Over
2017	11/21	Ball State	7	Miami (OH)	28	Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) -17.5	Miami (OH)	54.5	Under
2016	11/22	Miami (OH)	21	Ball State	20	Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) -6	Ball State	55.0	Under
2013	11/29	Ball State	55	Miami (OH)	14	Ball State	Ball State -34	Ball State	0
2012	11/23	Miami (OH)	24	Ball State	31	Ball State
2008	11/11	Miami (OH)	16	Ball State	31	Ball State
2007	08/30	Ball State	13	Miami (OH)	14	Miami (OH)
2006	10/28	Miami (OH)	17	Ball State	20	Ball State
2003	10/18	Ball State	3	Miami (OH)	49	Miami (OH)
2001	09/29	Ball State	20	Miami (OH)	28	Miami (OH)
2000	10/06	Miami (OH)	10	Ball State	15	Ball State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	6	6	3 Overs
Miami (OH)	11	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 11	6 - 4	3 - 3	3 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 6	4 - 6	1 - 3	3 - 3

(#62) Miami (OH) Info
Power Rating: -0.16 #62
Offense Rating: 13.13 #100
Defense Rating: 3.90 #20
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #14
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50

Miami (OH) has won 3 straight
Miami (OH) has won 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 7 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Miami (OH) Highlights
Miami (OH) offense is explosive (#39)
Miami (OH) Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Miami (OH) defense does not give up big plays (#25)
Miami (OH) defense is really good in red zone (#102)
Miami (OH) Secondary is very good (#66)

Miami (OH) Deficiencies
Miami (OH) offense is really bad (#124)
Miami (OH) run game is really bad (#104)
Miami (OH) Does Not Stuff Runs (#126)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	BALL	M-OH
OverallOver	#98	#23
OffenseOff	#85	#60
DefenseDef	#92	#21
Special TeamsST	#108	#1
PassingPass	#100	#37
RushingRush	#37	#67
Run BlockRBLK	#53	#16
Pass BlockPBLK	#21	#76
Route RunningWR Rt	#106	#93
TacklingTkl	#90	#49
Run DefenseR Def	#83	#31
Pass Rush DefPRush	#80	#27
Coverage DefCov	#96	#30

Rematch from Week 13
Miami (OH) 3.5 (34.5)
Miami (OH) won at Ball State this year (17-15)

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Ball State last year (27-21)
Miami (OH) beat Ball State in 2023 (17-15)
Miami (OH) beat Ball State in 2022 (18-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: M-OH | BALL
Depth Chart: M-OH | BALL
Rosters: M-OH | BALL

(#112) Ball State Info
Power Rating: -9.17 #112
Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60

Ball State has won 2 straight
Ball State has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 3 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Ball State Highlights
Ball State has a top Offensive Line (#110)
Ball State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#120)

Ball State defense does not give up big plays (#77)
Ball State commits very few Penalties (#59)

Ball State Deficiencies
Ball State has a really bad Offense
Ball State offense is not Explosive (#56)
Ball State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#116)
Ball State pass game is really bad (#111)

Miami (OH)'s OC Patrick Welsh

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	111	188	59%	1634	14	5	8.7
Aveon Smith	48	96	50%	638	2	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)	210	1075	13	5.1	66
Aveon Smith	75	280	1	3.7	50
Kenny Tracy	46	250	2	5.4	42
Keyon Mozee	34	151	2	4.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gage Larvadain	43	696	7	16.2	99
Cade McDonald	28	355	3	12.7	42
Joe Wilkins	25	343	1	13.7	49
Javon Tracy	21	331	1	15.8	52

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

Miami (OH)'s DC Bill Brechin

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Jacquez Warren	71	5	0	0	4
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caiden Woullard	41	12	10	9	1
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raion Strader	57	2	0	0	12
Yahsyn McKee	58	2	0	0	11
Austin Ertl	39	2	1	6	5

Ball State's OC Jared Elliott

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	66	124	53%	577	2	3	4.7
Layne Hatcher (Tr)	65	98	66%	583	4	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	227	1043	4	4.6	39
Kiael Kelly	134	723	7	5.4	55
Vaughn Pemberton	23	139	1	6.0	45
Rico Barfield	25	96	1	3.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	41	358	1	8.7	32
Ahmad Edwards	31	354	1	11.4	57
Tanner Koziol	34	295	3	8.7	26
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	19	164	0	8.6	26

View Ball State's Full Roster

Ball State's DC Tyler Stockton

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1
Mikhari Sibblis (Tr)	37	6	4	1	0
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Tyler Potts	27	3	1	0	6
Thailand Baldwin	30	0	0	1	5