Toledo at Miami (OH) - 2023 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo   Toledo Rockets at Miami (OH) RedHawks  Miami (OH) logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -2 (46.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Toledo 21 - Miami (OH): 17  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL 3rd straight Road Game
M-OH is playing their 8th straight game
TOL is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -1.5  (SP+ TOL -0.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 23 - M-OH: 22 (45)
TOL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TOL Travel: 159 miles
RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami (OH) at Miami+16.545.0L 3 - 38UN
Sat 9/9 Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.045.0W 41 - 28OY
Sat 9/16 Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.544.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/23 Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.549.5W 62 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.051.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/7 Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.543.0W 27 - 0UY
Sat 10/14 Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.546.0W 34 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.046.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.539.0W 30 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8 Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.537.5W 19 - 0UY
Wed 11/15 Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.536.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.534.5W 17 - 15UN
Sat 12/2 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.546.0W 23 - 14UY
Sat 12/16 Miami (OH) vs App State+6.541.0L 9 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%30.844%317843%2254.23.0734%13.336%34%3.9755.41.91.6
M-OH.137%23.536%2.8614138%1663.31.1541%21.739%43%3.1448.30.81.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1430.817.342.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
M-OH Defense1321.722.740.9%3.141.8 - - - - - 47%52%39%43%24%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1413.316.734.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
M-OH Offense1323.532.337.1%3.310.8173061411663.854%45%36%38%24%.1

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Miami (OH)1330:0017.232%50%5.548.30.81.84.42.2129.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
M-OH Defense1347%39% - - - - .032.6777%13%0.82
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
M-OH Offense1354%36%37.2140.83.814.062.8667%15%1.09

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
M-OH Defense1352%43% - - - - - - 11.331.633%33%.3311%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
M-OH Offense1345%38%14.225.9165.56.411.7155.161.636%26%.188%1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27  #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47  #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60  #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64  #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0  #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27   Miami (OH): 4.27

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0   Miami (OH): 3.7




Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: 4.27  #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13  #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90  #20
2023 Talent Rating: 408.16  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 23
Miami (OH) 22

Projected Total Points: 45
Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/12Miami (OH)3Toledo24Toledo -6.5Toledo44.5Under
202410/05Toledo30Miami (OH)20Toledo -4.5Toledo44.0Over
202310/21Miami (OH)17Toledo21Toledo -2Toledo46.5Under
202312/02Toledo14Miami (OH)23Toledo -8.5Miami (OH)46.0Under
201110/22Toledo49Miami (OH)28
200910/31Miami (OH)31Toledo24
200811/21Toledo42Miami (OH)14
200412/02Miami (OH)27Toledo35
200411/02Miami (OH)23Toledo16
200210/26Toledo13Miami (OH)27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami (OH)411 Overs
Toledo633 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 51 - 31 - 10 - 2
Road Teams5 - 53 - 12 - 01 - 1

(#29) TOL at (#62) M-OH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLM-OH
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #29 #62
SP+SP+ #51 #52
Perf GradeGrade #22 #28
OffenseOff #45 #66
DefenseDef #12 #25
Spec TeamsST #35 #1
TalentTal #88 #109
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffM-OH Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #30 #20
SP+SP+ #65 #14
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #58 #35
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #25 #36
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Miami (OH) on Offense
CategoryCatM-OH OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #66 #12
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #100 #24
SP+SP+ #106 #35
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Miami (OH) Run Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #95 #15
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #10
Miami (OH) Pass Game
CategoryCatM-OH OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #48 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #88 #7
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Yager Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Toledo -8.5 (46.0)
Miami (OH) won vs Toledo this year (23-14)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Miami (OH) last year (24-3)
Toledo beat Miami (OH) in 2024 (30-20)
Miami (OH) beat Toledo in 2023 (23-14)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn20131763%26512298.4
Tucker Gleason285551%383417.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peny Boone1941400157.271
Jacquez Stuart11057465.280
Dequan Finn12356374.656
Willie Shaw III3111803.814
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton52696913.442
Junior Vandeross47664414.168
Anthony Torres26464317.839
Larry Stephens22260211.828

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Gant1148102
Daniel Bolden947133
Maxen Hook690014
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren684003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Judge Culpepper3911920
D'Andre Ragin408530
Deshawn Holt266440
Jeremiah Peters227420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinyon Mitchell4120018
Ronald Delancy III2810010
Chris McDonald340008

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brett Gabbert11118859%16341458.7
Aveon Smith489650%638226.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2101075135.166
Aveon Smith7528013.750
Kenny Tracy4625025.442
Keyon Mozee3415124.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gage Larvadain43696716.299
Cade McDonald28355312.742
Joe Wilkins25343113.749
Javon Tracy21331115.852

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Salopek1379333
Ty Wise1229855
Jacquez Warren715004
Brian Ugwu62128100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caiden Woullard41121091
Ty Wise1229855
Brian Ugwu62128100
Matthew Salopek1379333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader5720012
Yahsyn McKee5820011
Austin Ertl392165