Miami (OH) at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo   Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen  Massachusetts logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Miami (OH) -7 (45.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Miami (OH) 41 - Massachusetts: 28

 
RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
M-OH 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -13.5  (SP+ M-OH -21.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 30 - UMASS: 16 (46)
M-OH Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 666 miles
Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami (OH) at Miami+16.545.0L 3 - 38UN
Sat 9/9 Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.045.0W 41 - 28OY
Sat 9/16 Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.544.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/23 Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.549.5W 62 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.051.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/7 Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.543.0W 27 - 0UY
Sat 10/14 Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.546.0W 34 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.046.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.539.0W 30 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8 Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.537.5W 19 - 0UY
Wed 11/15 Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.536.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.534.5W 17 - 15UN
Sat 12/2 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.546.0W 23 - 14UY
Sat 12/16 Miami (OH) vs App State+6.541.0L 9 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.045.5W 41 - 30OY
Sat 9/2 Massachusetts at Auburn+35.052.0L 14 - 59ON
Sat 9/9 Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.045.0L 28 - 41ON
Sat 9/16 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.050.0L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/23 Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.548.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/30 Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.555.5L 28 - 52ON
Sat 10/7 Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.055.5L 24 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 Massachusetts at Penn State+42.055.0L 0 - 63ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Massachusetts at Army+10.049.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 11/4 Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.557.5W 31 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts at Liberty+26.564.5L 25 - 49OY
Sat 11/25 Massachusetts vs UConn-2.551.0L 18 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH.137%23.536%2.8614138%1663.31.1541%21.739%43%3.1448.30.81.8
UMASS.0132%11.134%2.815031%1172.26.240%38.642%38%3.666.21.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1323.519.837.1%3.310.8173061411663.854%45%36%38%24%.1
UMASS Defense1238.634.740.1%3.61.6 - - - - - 60%39%42%38%20%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1321.721.240.9%3.141.8 - - - - - 47%52%39%43%24%.15
UMASS Offense1211.112.832.4%2.261.6152671501173.560%39%34%31%20%.01

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1330:0017.232%50%5.548.30.81.84.42.2129.9
Massachusetts1231:5514.628%48%7.666.21.61.66.11.6127.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1354%36%37.2140.83.814.062.8667%15%1.09
UMASS Defense1260%42% - - - - .183.1770%13%1.14
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1347%39% - - - - .032.6777%13%0.82
UMASS Offense1260%34%43.3150.33.510.032.869%14%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1345%38%14.225.9165.56.411.7155.161.636%26%.188%1.9
UMASS Defense1239%38% - - - - - - 9.291.933%28%.287%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1352%43% - - - - - - 11.331.633%33%.3311%2
UMASS Offense1239%31%11.323.1116.95.110.3414.011.637%19%.16%2.1

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16  #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13  #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90  #20
2023 Talent Rating: 408.16  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16   Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7   Massachusetts: -17.7




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895  #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17  #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87  #129
2023 Talent Rating: 565.65  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7  #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 30
Massachusetts 16

Projected Total Points: 46
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Miami (OH)23Massachusetts20Miami (OH) -15.5Massachusetts44.5Under
202309/09Massachusetts28Miami (OH)41Miami (OH) -7Miami (OH)45.0Over
201511/21Massachusetts13Miami (OH)20UMass -9Miami (OH)54.5Under
201410/04Miami (OH)42Massachusetts41Miami (OH) -4.5Massachusetts0
201310/12Massachusetts17Miami (OH)10UMass -2.5Massachusetts0
201209/22Miami (OH)27Massachusetts16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts131 Overs
Miami (OH)522 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 21 - 41 - 30 - 1
Road Teams2 - 44 - 11 - 03 - 1

(#62) M-OH at (#121) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHUMASS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #62 #121
SP+SP+ #52 #125
Perf GradeGrade #28 #132
OffenseOff #66 #97
DefenseDef #25 #135
Spec TeamsST #1 #136
TalentTal #109 #76
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Miami (OH) on Offense
CategoryCat
M-OH OffUMASS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #66 #135
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #100 #129
SP+SP+ #106 #124
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Miami (OH) Run Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffUMASS Def
Run GameRun #95 #130
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #113
Miami (OH) Pass Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePass #48 #130
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #88 #114
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Massachusetts on Offense
CategoryCatUMASS OffM-OH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #59 #20
SP+SP+ #99 #14
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Massachusetts Run Game
CategoryCat
UMASS OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #59 #35
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
Massachusetts Pass Game
CategoryCatUMASS OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #106 #36
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Miami (OH) 7.0 (45.0)
Miami (OH) won at Massachusetts this year (41-28)

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Massachusetts in 2024 (23-20)
Miami (OH) beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-28)

  
M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brett Gabbert11118859%16341458.7
Aveon Smith489650%638226.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2101075135.166
Aveon Smith7528013.750
Kenny Tracy4625025.442
Keyon Mozee3415124.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gage Larvadain43696716.299
Cade McDonald28355312.742
Joe Wilkins25343113.749
Javon Tracy21331115.852

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Salopek1379333
Ty Wise1229855
Jacquez Warren715004
Brian Ugwu62128100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caiden Woullard41121091
Ty Wise1229855
Brian Ugwu62128100
Matthew Salopek1379333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader5720012
Yahsyn McKee5820011
Austin Ertl392165

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)13922761%1507666.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)6210161%886638.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams2361157124.947
Gregory DeRosiers3730148.160
Anthony Simpson (Tr)119318.517
Ahmad Haston165403.47
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)57792313.971
George Johnson35421312.032
Mark Pope (Tr)33420112.754
Gino Campiotti21289413.830

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Te'Rai Powell591023
Nahji Logan593111
Gerrell Johnson512000
Billy Wooden5011671
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Billy Wooden5011671
JB Brown (Tr)385341
Derrieon Craig245211
Zukudo Igwenagu293100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Juan Lua230005
Tyler Rudolph402114
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)310014