Miami (OH) at Ohio - 2023 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo   Miami (OH) RedHawks at Ohio Bobcats  Ohio logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Ohio -7.5 (39.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Miami (OH) 30 - Ohio: 16  (Mid-American)

 
RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
OHIO 2nd straight Home Game
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
M-OH is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -1.5  (SP+ M-OH -6)
Projected Score: M-OH: 21 - OHIO: 23 (44)
OHIO Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 141 miles
Bobcats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (16 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 3.2 (#15)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami (OH) at Miami+16.545.0L 3 - 38UN
Sat 9/9 Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.045.0W 41 - 28OY
Sat 9/16 Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.544.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/23 Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.549.5W 62 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.051.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/7 Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.543.0W 27 - 0UY
Sat 10/14 Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.546.0W 34 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.046.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.539.0W 30 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8 Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.537.5W 19 - 0UY
Wed 11/15 Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.536.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.534.5W 17 - 15UN
Sat 12/2 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.546.0W 23 - 14UY
Sat 12/16 Miami (OH) vs App State+6.541.0L 9 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Ohio's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Ohio at San Diego State+2.048.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 9/2 Ohio vs Long Island University-34.558.0W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/9 Ohio at Florida Atlantic+3.561.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/16 Ohio vs Iowa State+1.542.0W 10 - 7UY
Sat 9/23 Ohio at Bowling Green-13.045.0W 38 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Ohio vs Kent State-24.545.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 10/14 Ohio at Northern Illinois-5.545.0L 13 - 23UN
Sat 10/21 Ohio vs Western Michigan-16.552.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 10/28 Ohio vs Miami (OH)-7.539.0L 16 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7 Ohio at Buffalo-9.545.5W 20 - 10UY
Wed 11/15 Ohio vs Central Michigan-11.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Fri 11/24 Ohio at Akron-13.541.5W 25 - 14UN
Sat 12/16 Ohio vs Georgia Southern+1.548.5W 41 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH.137%23.536%2.8614138%1663.31.1541%21.739%43%3.1448.30.81.8
OHIO.2344%27.842%2.9414347%2783.83.2243%21.941%46%3.8244.10.92.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OHIO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1323.519.837.1%3.310.8173061411663.854%45%36%38%24%.1
OHIO Defense1421.92043.4%3.822.2 - - - - - 43%56%41%46%18%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1321.721.240.9%3.141.8 - - - - - 47%52%39%43%24%.15
OHIO Offense1427.836.344.3%3.830.9214221432784.149%50%42%47%15%.23

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1330:0017.232%50%5.548.30.81.84.42.2129.9
Ohio1432:0920.742%35%4.944.10.92.25.92.6131.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1354%36%37.2140.83.814.062.8667%15%1.09
OHIO Defense1443%41% - - - - .122.8766%12%1.11
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1347%39% - - - - .032.6777%13%0.82
OHIO Offense1449%42%35.2143.44.123.112.9473%10%0.91

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1345%38%14.225.9165.56.411.7155.161.636%26%.188%1.9
OHIO Defense1456%46% - - - - - - 12.331.533%33%.376%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1352%43% - - - - - - 11.331.633%33%.3311%2
OHIO Offense1450%47%21.633.1278.18.412.9285.371.632%34%.425%2

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16  #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13  #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90  #20
2023 Talent Rating: 408.16  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16   Ohio: 3.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7   Ohio: -2.2




Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: 3.225  #42
Ohio's Offense Rating: 16.43  #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: -0.96  #5
2023 Talent Rating: 342.60  #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Ohio's 2023 Expected Record: 9.80 - 3.20
Ohio's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2  #74
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5  #115
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #13

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio 23
Miami (OH) 21

Projected Total Points: 44
Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Ohio's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/04Ohio24Miami (OH)20Ohio -2.5Ohio50.5Under
202410/19Miami (OH)30Ohio20Miami (OH) -3.5Miami (OH)43.5Over
202412/07Miami (OH)3Ohio38Miami (OH) -2.5Ohio43.5Under
202310/28Ohio16Miami (OH)30Ohio -7.5Miami (OH)39.0Over
202211/08Miami (OH)21Ohio37Ohio -2.5Ohio52.0Over
202111/02Ohio35Miami (OH)33Miami (OH) -7Ohio54.5Over
201911/06Ohio21Miami (OH)24Ohio -7Miami (OH)57.5Under
201811/07Miami (OH)30Ohio28Ohio -4.5Miami (OH)59.0Under
201710/31Ohio45Miami (OH)28Ohio -7Ohio53.5Over
201610/01Miami (OH)7Ohio17Ohio -3.5Ohio50.0Under
201510/10Ohio34Miami (OH)3Ohio -17.5Ohio50.5Under
201411/25Miami (OH)21Ohio24Ohio -3NA52.5Under
201310/26Ohio41Miami (OH)16Ohio -24Ohio0
201210/27Miami (OH)23Ohio20
201111/22Ohio21Miami (OH)14
201010/23Miami (OH)13Ohio34
200910/17Ohio28Miami (OH)7
200811/28Miami (OH)26Ohio41
200711/24Ohio38Miami (OH)29
200611/24Miami (OH)24Ohio34
200511/21Ohio7Miami (OH)38
200409/18Miami (OH)40Ohio20
200311/22Ohio31Miami (OH)49
200211/02Miami (OH)38Ohio20
200110/20Ohio24Miami (OH)36
200011/03Miami (OH)27Ohio24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio1585 Overs
Miami (OH)1147 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 127 - 55 - 32 - 2
Road Teams12 - 145 - 72 - 23 - 5

(#62) M-OH at (#42) OHIO
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHOHIO
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #62 #42
SP+SP+ #52 #74
Perf GradeGrade #28 #42
OffenseOff #66 #36
DefenseDef #25 #30
Spec TeamsST #1 #135
TalentTal #109 #123
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Miami (OH) on Offense
CategoryCat
M-OH OffOHIO Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #66 #30
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #100 #5
SP+SP+ #106 #13
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Miami (OH) Run Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffOHIO Def
Run GameRun #95 #41
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #92
Miami (OH) Pass Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffOHIO Def
Pass GamePass #48 #73
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #88 #19
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Ohio on Offense
CategoryCatOHIO OffM-OH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #36 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #68 #20
SP+SP+ #115 #14
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Ohio Run Game
CategoryCat
OHIO OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #89 #35
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
Ohio Pass Game
CategoryCatOHIO OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #39 #36
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #8 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Ohio -7.5 (39.0)
Miami (OH) won at Ohio this year (30-16)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Miami (OH) last year (24-20)
Ohio beat Miami (OH) in 2024 (38-3)
Miami (OH) beat Ohio in 2023 (30-16)

  
M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brett Gabbert11118859%16341458.7
Aveon Smith489650%638226.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2101075135.166
Aveon Smith7528013.750
Kenny Tracy4625025.442
Keyon Mozee3415124.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gage Larvadain43696716.299
Cade McDonald28355312.742
Joe Wilkins25343113.749
Javon Tracy21331115.852

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Salopek1379333
Ty Wise1229855
Jacquez Warren715004
Brian Ugwu62128100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caiden Woullard41121091
Ty Wise1229855
Brian Ugwu62128100
Matthew Salopek1379333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader5720012
Yahsyn McKee5820011
Austin Ertl392165

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kurtis Rourke19530764%22071157.2
CJ Harris254951%248235.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sieh Bangura17881174.626
O'Shann Allison13945233.330
Kurtis Rourke6721943.325
Parker Navarro2517807.152
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sam Wiglusz55664312.138
Miles Cross47599512.742
Tyler Walton3734929.427
Will Kacmarek22243211.036

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Houston12813351
Keye Thompson9410242
Walter Reynolds (Tr)672001
Austin Brawley411002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradley Weaver3413670
Vonnie Watkins3385110
Shane Bonner299560
Rayyan Buell3013530
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Birchette293008
Jeremiah Wood263024
Austin Brawley411002