Miami (OH) at Ohio - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Ohio -7.5 (39.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Miami (OH) 30 - Ohio: 16 (Mid-American)

RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (26 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
OHIO 2nd straight Home Game
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
M-OH is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -1.5 (SP+ M-OH -6)
Projected Score: M-OH: 20 - OHIO: 21 (41)
OHIO Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 141 miles

Bobcats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (16 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 16 (25 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 3.2 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
M-OH Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami (OH) at Miami	+16.5	45.0	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/9	Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	-7.0	45.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Miami (OH) at Cincinnati	+14.5	44.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Miami (OH) vs Delaware State	-40.5	49.5	W 62 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Miami (OH) at Kent State	-14.0	51.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green	-7.5	43.0	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Miami (OH) at Western Michigan	-7.5	46.0	W 34 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+2.0	46.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Miami (OH) at Ohio	+7.5	39.0	W 30 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8	Miami (OH) vs Akron	-17.5	37.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Miami (OH) vs Buffalo	-7.5	36.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-3.5	34.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
Sat 12/2	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+8.5	46.0	W 23 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/16	Miami (OH) vs App State	+6.5	41.0	L 9 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Ohio's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Ohio at San Diego State	+2.0	48.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/2	Ohio vs Long Island University	-34.5	58.0	W 27 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio at Florida Atlantic	+3.5	61.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ohio vs Iowa State	+1.5	42.0	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio at Bowling Green	-13.0	45.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio vs Kent State	-24.5	45.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio at Northern Illinois	-5.5	45.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/21	Ohio vs Western Michigan	-16.5	52.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/28	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-7.5	39.0	L 16 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7	Ohio at Buffalo	-9.5	45.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Ohio vs Central Michigan	-11.5	48.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Ohio at Akron	-13.5	41.5	W 25 - 14	U	N
Sat 12/16	Ohio vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	48.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	25.6	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	15.9	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2
OHIO	#76 (.18)	45% (33)	24.3	44% (61)	2.99 (90)	144	48% (17)	204	3.61 (92)	#3 (.02)	35% (8)	15.8	35% (9)	36% (12)	2.45 (2)	51.8	1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	25.6	25.6	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18
OHIO Defense	13	15.8	16.8	35%	2.45	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	35%	36%	21%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	15.9	20.7	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1
OHIO Offense	13	24.3	24.8	45.2%	3.61	1	21	348	144	204	3.9	52%	47%	44%	48%	15%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4
Ohio	13	33:23	20.8	46%	50%	5.6	51.8	1	1.8	7.4	2.8	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)
OHIO Defense	13	44% (10)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (3)	2.54 (8)	70% (47)	15% (3)	1.07 (101)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)
OHIO Offense	13	52% (46)	44% (61)	37.3	144.4	3.9	18 (77)	.1 (95)	2.99 (90)	73% (75)	9% (39)	0.81 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)
OHIO Defense	13	54% (123)	36% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.14 (14)	1.5 (30)	36% (15)	23% (5)	.19 (15)	5% (94)	1.9 (27)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)
OHIO Offense	13	47% (91)	48% (17)	18.4	29.5	203.6	6.9	11.1	16 (92)	9 (40)	.31 (57)	1.4 (123)	30% (31)	35% (30)	.32 (72)	6% (84)	1.7 (131)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16 #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13 #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90 #20
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16 Ohio: 3.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7 Ohio: -2.2

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: 3.225 #42
Ohio's Offense Rating: 16.43 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: -0.96 #5
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Ohio's 2023 Expected Record: 9.80 - 3.20
Ohio's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #74
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #115
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #13

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.6
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 21
Miami (OH) 20

Total Points: 41

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami (OH) 22
Ohio 21

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Miami (OH) 21
Ohio 21

Total Points: 42

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 15.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Ohio's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/04	Ohio	24	Miami (OH)	20	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	50.5	Under
2024	10/19	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio	20	Miami (OH) -3.5	Miami (OH)	43.5	Over
2024	12/07	Miami (OH)	3	Ohio	38	Miami (OH) -2.5	Ohio	43.5	Under
2023	10/28	Ohio	16	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio -7.5	Miami (OH)	39.0	Over
2022	11/08	Miami (OH)	21	Ohio	37	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	52.0	Over
2021	11/02	Ohio	35	Miami (OH)	33	Miami (OH) -7	Ohio	54.5	Over
2019	11/06	Ohio	21	Miami (OH)	24	Ohio -7	Miami (OH)	57.5	Under
2018	11/07	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio	28	Ohio -4.5	Miami (OH)	59.0	Under
2017	10/31	Ohio	45	Miami (OH)	28	Ohio -7	Ohio	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Miami (OH)	7	Ohio	17	Ohio -3.5	Ohio	50.0	Under
2015	10/10	Ohio	34	Miami (OH)	3	Ohio -17.5	Ohio	50.5	Under
2014	11/25	Miami (OH)	21	Ohio	24	Ohio -3	NA	52.5	Under
2013	10/26	Ohio	41	Miami (OH)	16	Ohio -24	Ohio	0
2012	10/27	Miami (OH)	23	Ohio	20
2011	11/22	Ohio	21	Miami (OH)	14
2010	10/23	Miami (OH)	13	Ohio	34
2009	10/17	Ohio	28	Miami (OH)	7
2008	11/28	Miami (OH)	26	Ohio	41
2007	11/24	Ohio	38	Miami (OH)	29
2006	11/24	Miami (OH)	24	Ohio	34
2005	11/21	Ohio	7	Miami (OH)	38
2004	09/18	Miami (OH)	40	Ohio	20
2003	11/22	Ohio	31	Miami (OH)	49
2002	11/02	Miami (OH)	38	Ohio	20
2001	10/20	Ohio	24	Miami (OH)	36
2000	11/03	Miami (OH)	27	Ohio	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	15	8	5 Overs
Miami (OH)	11	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	7 - 5	5 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 7	2 - 2	3 - 5

(#62) M-OH at (#42) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	M-OH	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#62	#42
SP+SP+	#52	#74
Perf GradeGrade	#28	#42
OffenseOff	#66	#36
DefenseDef	#25	#30
Spec TeamsST	#1	#135
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Miami (OH) Injury Report

Ohio Injury Report

Miami (OH) on Offense


CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#66	#30
SuccessSuc	#122	#8
ExplosiveExp	#17	#77
PPAPPA	#78	#3
PowerPwr	#100	#5
SP+SP+	#106	#13
Pts POPPO	#57	#2
HavocHav	#95	#9

Miami (OH) Run Game


CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#95	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#9
Run ExplRExp	#25	#101
PPAExp	#94	#3
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#8
TackleTak	-	#92

Miami (OH) Pass Game


CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#48	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#30
PPAExp	#59	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#88	#19
F7 HavocF7	#82	#3
DB HavocDB	#107	#94

Ohio on Offense


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#36	#25
SuccessSuc	#33	#48
ExplosiveExp	#129	#3
PPAPPA	#76	#20
PowerPwr	#68	#20
SP+SP+	#115	#14
Pts POPPO	#92	#14
HavocHav	#53	#40

Ohio Run Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#89	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#61	#47
Run ExplRExp	#131	#19
PPAExp	#95	#23
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#104
TackleTak	-	#56

Ohio Pass Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#61
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#1
PPAExp	#57	#27
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#8	#31
F7 HavocF7	#39	#69
DB HavocDB	#84	#20

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 66° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.016

Rematch from Week 9
Ohio -7.5 (39.0)
Miami (OH) won at Ohio this year (30-16)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Miami (OH) last year (38-3)
Miami (OH) beat Ohio in 2023 (30-16)
Ohio beat Miami (OH) in 2022 (37-21)

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	111	188	59%	1634	14	5	8.7
Aveon Smith	48	96	50%	638	2	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)	210	1075	13	5.1	66
Aveon Smith	75	280	1	3.7	50
Kenny Tracy	46	250	2	5.4	42
Keyon Mozee	34	151	2	4.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gage Larvadain	43	696	7	16.2	99
Cade McDonald	28	355	3	12.7	42
Joe Wilkins	25	343	1	13.7	49
Javon Tracy	21	331	1	15.8	52

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Jacquez Warren	71	5	0	0	4
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caiden Woullard	41	12	10	9	1
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raion Strader	57	2	0	0	12
Yahsyn McKee	58	2	0	0	11
Austin Ertl	39	2	1	6	5

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kurtis Rourke	195	307	64%	2207	11	5	7.2
CJ Harris	25	49	51%	248	2	3	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura	178	811	7	4.6	26
O'Shann Allison	139	452	3	3.3	30
Kurtis Rourke	67	219	4	3.3	25
Parker Navarro	25	178	0	7.1	52

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Wiglusz	55	664	3	12.1	38
Miles Cross	47	599	5	12.7	42
Tyler Walton	37	349	2	9.4	27
Will Kacmarek	22	243	2	11.0	36

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Houston	128	13	3	5	1
Keye Thompson	94	10	2	4	2
Walter Reynolds (Tr)	67	2	0	0	1
Austin Brawley	41	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bradley Weaver	34	13	6	7
Vonnie Watkins	33	8	5	11
Shane Bonner	29	9	5	6
Rayyan Buell	30	13	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Justin Birchette	29	3	0	8
Jeremiah Wood	26	3	2	4
Austin Brawley	41	1	0	2