Miami (OH) at Cincinnati - 2023 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo   Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincinnati logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -14.5 (44.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Miami (OH) 31 - Cincinnati: 24

 
RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
M-OH 3rd straight Road Game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -4  (SP+ M-OH -11)
Projected Score: M-OH: 25 - CIN: 21 (47)
CIN Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
M-OH Travel: 29 miles
Bearcats (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami (OH) at Miami+16.545.0L 3 - 38UN
Sat 9/9 Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.045.0W 41 - 28OY
Sat 9/16 Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.544.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/23 Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.549.5W 62 - 20OY
Sat 9/30 Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.051.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/7 Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.543.0W 27 - 0UY
Sat 10/14 Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.546.0W 34 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.046.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.539.0W 30 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8 Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.537.5W 19 - 0UY
Wed 11/15 Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.536.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/25 Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.534.5W 17 - 15UN
Sat 12/2 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.546.0W 23 - 14UY
Sat 12/16 Miami (OH) vs App State+6.541.0L 9 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky-21.557.5W 66 - 13OY
Sat 9/9 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh+6.544.5W 27 - 21OY
Sat 9/16 Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)-14.544.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 9/23 Cincinnati vs Oklahoma+13.058.0L 6 - 20UN
Fri 9/29 Cincinnati at BYU+1.047.5L 27 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-4.042.5L 10 - 30UN
Sat 10/21 Cincinnati vs Baylor-2.551.5L 29 - 32ON
Sat 10/28 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State+7.053.0L 13 - 45ON
Sat 11/4 Cincinnati vs UCF+3.559.5L 26 - 28UY
Sat 11/11 Cincinnati at Houston+3.553.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 11/18 Cincinnati at West Virginia+4.552.5L 21 - 42ON
Sat 11/25 Cincinnati vs Kansas+7.559.5L 16 - 49ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH.137%23.536%2.8614138%1663.31.1541%21.739%43%3.1448.30.81.8
CIN.1840%30.339%3.0113041%2433.8.0937%25.640%35%3.5264.41.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1323.519.837.1%3.310.8173061411663.854%45%36%38%24%.1
CIN Defense1325.619.637.2%3.521.8 - - - - - 54%45%40%35%20%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1321.721.240.9%3.141.8 - - - - - 47%52%39%43%24%.15
CIN Offense1330.334.439.5%3.81.119372130243446%53%39%41%17%.18

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1330:0017.232%50%5.548.30.81.84.42.2129.9
Cincinnati1328:1418.536%65%7.564.41.11.86.72.7329.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1354%36%37.2140.83.814.062.8667%15%1.09
CIN Defense1354%40% - - - - .13.0182%13%1.01
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1347%39% - - - - .032.6777%13%0.82
CIN Offense1346%39%32.8129.7419.13.0168%10%0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1345%38%14.225.9165.56.411.7155.161.636%26%.188%1.9
CIN Defense1345%35% - - - - - - 11.121.634%28%.37%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1352%43% - - - - - - 11.331.633%33%.3311%2
CIN Offense1353%41%19.232.1242.77.612.7228.281.635%32%.376%1.9

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16  #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13  #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90  #20
2023 Talent Rating: 408.16  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16   Cincinnati: -2.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7   Cincinnati: -7.2




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: -2.32  #80
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 18.94  #45
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 14.72  #117
2023 Talent Rating: 663.68  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #51
Cincinnati's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Cincinnati's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #88
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #95
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #82

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 25
Cincinnati 21

Projected Total Points: 47
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Miami (OH)16Cincinnati27Cincinnati -3.5Cincinnati47.5Under
202309/16Cincinnati24Miami (OH)31Cincinnati -14.5Miami (OH)44.5Over
202209/17Miami (OH)17Cincinnati38Cincinnati -24Miami (OH)51.0Over
202109/04Cincinnati49Miami (OH)14Cincinnati -22.5Cincinnati49.0Over
201909/14Cincinnati35Miami (OH)13Cincinnati -17Cincinnati49.5Under
201809/08Miami (OH)0Cincinnati21Miami (OH) -1.5Cincinnati48.0Under
201709/16Miami (OH)17Cincinnati21Miami (OH) -3.5Cincinnati49.0Under
201609/24Cincinnati27Miami (OH)20Cincinnati -19.5Miami (OH)55.5Under
201509/19Miami (OH)33Cincinnati37Cincinnati -19Miami (OH)59.5Over
201409/20Cincinnati31Miami (OH)24Cincinnati -32Miami (OH)0
201309/21Miami (OH)0Cincinnati14Cincinnati -24Miami (OH)0
201210/06Cincinnati52Miami (OH)14
201110/01Miami (OH)0Cincinnati27
201010/09Cincinnati45Miami (OH)3
200910/03Miami (OH)13Cincinnati37
200809/20Cincinnati45Miami (OH)20
200709/15Miami (OH)10Cincinnati47
200609/30Cincinnati24Miami (OH)10
200509/28Miami (OH)44Cincinnati16
200409/11Cincinnati45Miami (OH)26
200309/27Miami (OH)42Cincinnati37
200210/05Cincinnati26Miami (OH)31
200109/22Miami (OH)21Cincinnati14
200010/27Cincinnati45Miami (OH)15
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati1954 Overs
Miami (OH)565 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 115 - 62 - 53 - 1
Road Teams11 - 136 - 51 - 35 - 2

(#62) M-OH at (#80) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #62 #80
SP+SP+ #52 #88
Perf GradeGrade #28 #89
OffenseOff #66 #43
DefenseDef #25 #127
Spec TeamsST #1 #123
TalentTal #109 #51
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #51
Miami (OH) on Offense
CategoryCat
M-OH OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #66 #127
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #100 #117
SP+SP+ #106 #82
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Miami (OH) Run Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #95 #120
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #80
Miami (OH) Pass Game
CategoryCat
M-OH OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #48 #127
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #88 #64
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Cincinnati on Offense
CategoryCatCIN OffM-OH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #45 #20
SP+SP+ #95 #14
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Cincinnati Run Game
CategoryCat
CIN OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #33 #35
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
Cincinnati Pass Game
CategoryCatCIN OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #92 #36
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #58 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Cincinnati -14.5 (44.5)
Miami (OH) won at Cincinnati this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) in 2024 (27-16)
Miami (OH) beat Cincinnati in 2023 (31-24)

  
M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brett Gabbert11118859%16341458.7
Aveon Smith489650%638226.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2101075135.166
Aveon Smith7528013.750
Kenny Tracy4625025.442
Keyon Mozee3415124.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gage Larvadain43696716.299
Cade McDonald28355312.742
Joe Wilkins25343113.749
Javon Tracy21331115.852

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Salopek1379333
Ty Wise1229855
Jacquez Warren715004
Brian Ugwu62128100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caiden Woullard41121091
Ty Wise1229855
Brian Ugwu62128100
Matthew Salopek1379333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader5720012
Yahsyn McKee5820011
Austin Ertl392165

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Emory Jones (Tr)19732261%221918106.9
Brady Lichtenberg193456%252217.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Kiner192104755.568
Emory Jones (Tr)15556043.625
Myles Montgomery6642836.563
Ryan Montgomery5432916.129
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xzavier Henderson (Tr)58782313.555
Braden Smith (Tr)43557413.048
Chamon Metayer23258511.235
Dee Wiggins (Tr)20246212.339

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn Pace8011265
Byron Threats573116
Dorian Jones (Tr)563112
Taj Ward554102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grzesiak (Tr)467433
Dontay Corleone397321
Eric Phillips146251
Jowon Briggs276220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Byron Threats573116
Jordan Young (Tr)341006
Justin Harris313016