Sam Houston at Liberty - 2023 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Thursday, October 5th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -21 (46.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Liberty 21 - Sam Houston: 16  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 20 - 26 (17 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LIB coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -23.5   (SP+ LIB -25)

Projected Score: SHSU: 13 - LIB: 37 (50)
LIB Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
SHSU Travel: 1041 miles, 1 hrs behind
Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 24 (40 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Sam Houston at BYU+19.046.5L 0 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 Sam Houston vs Air Force+13.536.5L 3 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 Sam Houston at Houston+11.537.0L 7 - 38ON
Thu 9/28 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+6.536.5L 28 - 35ON
Thu 10/5 Sam Houston at Liberty+21.046.5L 16 - 21UY
Wed 10/11 Sam Houston at New Mexico State+4.543.0L 13 - 27UN
Wed 10/18 Sam Houston vs Florida International-6.042.0L 27 - 33ON
Wed 10/25 Sam Houston vs UTEP-4.038.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/4 Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State-16.541.5W 24 - 21ON
Sat 11/11 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+8.549.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/18 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+12.552.0L 23 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee+3.549.5W 23 - 20UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.548.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.054.5W 33 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Liberty at Buffalo-2.554.0W 55 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Liberty at Florida International-10.054.0W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5 Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.046.5W 21 - 16UN
Tue 10/10 Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.059.5W 31 - 13UY
Tue 10/17 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.056.5W 42 - 35ON
Tue 10/24 Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.061.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.558.0W 56 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.558.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.564.5W 49 - 25ON
Sat 11/25 Liberty at UTEP-18.054.5W 42 - 28ON
Fri 12/1 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.554.0W 49 - 35OY
Mon 1/1 Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)37% (118)2034% (130)2.61 (131)8940% (84)2223.47 (97)#69 (.18)41% (58)26.241% (55)42% (75)3.77 (64)42.21.31.7
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)38.356% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)24.347% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense122016.836.9%3.471.318311892222.943%55%34%40%15%.1
LIB Defense1424.32442.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1226.225.841.3%3.771.7 - - - - - 53%47%41%42%14%.18
LIB Offense1438.340.354.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1229:4118.336%59%5.142.21.31.74.31.4228
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1243% (110)34% (130)30.789.12.913 (108)-.02 (129)2.61 (131)83% (7)9% (56)0.81 (130)
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1253% (104)41% (55) - - - - .16 (80)3.2 (92)79% (104)8% (119)1.02 (82)
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1255% (25)40% (84)23.537.3222.369.515 (96)12 (85).24 (81)1.4 (127)34% (105)24% (124).17 (112)6% (55)1.9 (119)
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1247% (32)42% (75) - - - - - - 13 (26).23 (49)1.5 (24)31% (79)27% (25).26 (41)6% (87)2.1 (88)
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -9.92   Liberty: 11.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -13.5   Liberty: 11.8




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 37
Sam Houston 13


Total Points: 50

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 38.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29Sam Houston20Liberty18Sam HoustonLiberty -2.5Sam Houston47.5Under
202310/05Liberty21Sam Houston16LibertyLiberty -21Sam Houston46.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty100 Overs
Sam Houston122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#118) Sam Houston Info
Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40


Sam Houston has lost 4 straight
Sam Houston has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 5 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Sam Houston Highlights
Sam Houston commits very few Penalties (#95)
Sam Houston defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Sam Houston Deficiencies
Sam Houston has a really bad Offense
Sam Houston Can Not Run the Ball (#85)
Sam Houston offense is really bad (#111)
Sam Houston offense is not Explosive (#70)
Sam Houston run game is really bad (#105)
Sam Houston does not Sack the QB (#64)
Sam Houston Does Not Stuff Runs (#96)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLIBSHSU
OverallOver#16#85
OffenseOff#11#103
DefenseDef#42#24
Special TeamsST#33#105
PassingPass#20#53
RushingRush#4#101
Run BlockRBLK#31#100
Pass BlockPBLK#82#78
Route RunningWR Rt#19#63
TacklingTkl#32#11
Run DefenseR Def#62#63
Pass Rush DefPRush#59#82
Coverage DefCov#34#7

Rematch from Week 6
Liberty -21.0 (46.5)
Liberty won vs Sam Houston this year (21-16)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Liberty last year (20-18)
Liberty beat Sam Houston in 2023 (21-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | LIB
Depth Chart: SHSU | LIB
Rosters: SHSU | LIB
(#30) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30


Liberty has won 4 straight
Liberty has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 8 - 0 (5 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Liberty Highlights
Liberty is Undefeated at Home

Liberty has Really Good Running Game (#53)
Liberty offense is efficent (#55)
Liberty has a top Offensive Line (#49)
Liberty offense is good in red zone (#98)
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#75)

Liberty Secondary is very good (#118)
Liberty defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)


  
Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keegan Shoemaker26441963%250415116.0
Grant Gunnell142264%100014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
John Gentry (Tr)11939433.328
Keegan Shoemaker9325412.729
Adrian Murdaugh2611724.548
Noah Smith2710623.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Smith7978269.942
Malik Phillips35430112.341
Al'Vonte Woodard31339210.926
John Gentry (Tr)3526127.556

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Clayton Carlin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevor Williams1148240
Kavian Gaither625101
Caleb Weaver421004
Da'Marcus Crosby421003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nixon236511
Chris Scott154300
Trevor Williams1148240
Markel Perry305230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Da'Veawn Armstead90005
Dakerric Hobbs281005
Caleb Weaver421004

Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter17729061%28763269.9
Johnathan Bennett1617%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)2211401166.360
Kaidon Salter1631089126.752
Billy Lucas11459765.243
Aaron Bedgood5855239.549
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels5510671019.475
Treon Sibley23467420.368
Noah Frith17323319.055
Elijah Smoot11221220.142

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyren Dupree1168362
Brandon Bishop583003
Joseph Carter552001
Quinton Reese502001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendy Charles265320
CJ Bazile Jr.48113110
Christopher Boti144310
Tyren Dupree1168362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Singleton3600012
Preston Hodge443007
Brylan Green352107