Sam Houston at Liberty - 2023 Matchup Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty Flames

Thursday, October 5th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -21 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Liberty 21 - Sam Houston: 16 (Conference USA)

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -23.5 (SP+ LIB -25)
Projected Score: SHSU: 14 - LIB: 37 (51)
LIB Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
SHSU Travel: 1041 miles, 1 hrs behind

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SHSU Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33	O	N
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Liberty's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0	54.5	W 33 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5	54.0	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0	54.0	W 38 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0	46.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0	59.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0	56.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0	61.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5	58.0	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5	64.5	W 49 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0	54.5	W 42 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	54.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		35%	17.8	41%	2.69	0	30%	0	2.55	.06	35%	37.8	36%	35%	2.98	0	0	0
LIB	.15	41%	25.6	46%	3.22	172	38%	217	3.61	.1	36%	26.5	38%	36%	3.57	53.5	2.1	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Offense	1	17.8	15.1	35.3%	2.55	0	0	0	0	0	0	49%	51%	41%	30%	1398%
LIB Defense	13	26.5	27.3	36.2%	3.57	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Defense	1	37.8	39	35%	2.98	0	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	36%	35%	2884%	.06
LIB Offense	13	25.6	31.5	41.4%	3.61	2.1	20	389	172	217	4.6	50%	48%	46%	38%	19%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sam Houston	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30.1
Liberty	13	28:37	20.4	37%	48%	6.2	53.5	2.1	2.2	8.4	3.2	1	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense	1	49%	41%	0	0	0	0	.08	2.69	71%	1396%	1.06
LIB Defense	13	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.59	75%	14%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense	1	45%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.36	70%	2882%	0.91
LIB Offense	13	50%	46%	37.8	172.4	4.6	24	.17	3.22	68%	13%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense	1	51%	30%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-.07	1.6	36%	28%	.26	2%	2.2
LIB Defense	13	47%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.7	36%	27%	.26	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense	1	54%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.18	1.7	37%	25%	.22	2%	2.1
LIB Offense	13	48%	38%	17.6	30.4	216.5	7.1	12.3	21	15	.22	1.6	31%	26%	.23	6%	2.2

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 240.42 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -9.92 Liberty: 11.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -13.5 Liberty: 11.8

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 330.29 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 37
Sam Houston 14

Projected Total Points: 51

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/29	Sam Houston	20	Liberty	18	Liberty -2.5	Sam Houston	47.5	Under
2023	10/05	Liberty	21	Sam Houston	16	Liberty -21	Sam Houston	46.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	1	0	0 Overs
Sam Houston	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#118) SHSU at (#30) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SHSU	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#118	#30
SP+SP+	#112	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#103	#21
OffenseOff	#121	#12
DefenseDef	#28	#50
Spec TeamsST	#129	#38
TalentTal	#132	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Sam Houston Injury Report

Liberty Injury Report

Sam Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#50
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#113	#42
SP+SP+	#120	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Sam Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#136	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Sam Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	SHSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#3	#57
SP+SP+	#9	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#13

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Liberty -21.0 (46.5)
Liberty won vs Sam Houston this year (21-16)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Liberty in 2024 (20-18)
Liberty beat Sam Houston in 2023 (21-16)

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keegan Shoemaker	264	419	63%	2504	15	11	6.0
Grant Gunnell	14	22	64%	100	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Gentry (Tr)	119	394	3	3.3	28
Keegan Shoemaker	93	254	1	2.7	29
Adrian Murdaugh	26	117	2	4.5	48
Noah Smith	27	106	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Smith	79	782	6	9.9	42
Malik Phillips	35	430	1	12.3	41
Al'Vonte Woodard	31	339	2	10.9	26
John Gentry (Tr)	35	261	2	7.5	56

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Kavian Gaither	62	5	1	0	1
Caleb Weaver	42	1	0	0	4
Da'Marcus Crosby	42	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nixon	23	6	5	1	1
Chris Scott	15	4	3	0	0
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Markel Perry	30	5	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Da'Veawn Armstead	9	0	5
Dakerric Hobbs	28	1	5
Caleb Weaver	42	1	4

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	177	290	61%	2876	32	6	9.9
Johnathan Bennett	1	6	17%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)	221	1401	16	6.3	60
Kaidon Salter	163	1089	12	6.7	52
Billy Lucas	114	597	6	5.2	43
Aaron Bedgood	58	552	3	9.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
C.J. Daniels	55	1067	10	19.4	75
Treon Sibley	23	467	4	20.3	68
Noah Frith	17	323	3	19.0	55
Elijah Smoot	11	221	2	20.1	42

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2
Brandon Bishop	58	3	0	0	3
Joseph Carter	55	2	0	0	1
Quinton Reese	50	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendy Charles	26	5	3	2	0
CJ Bazile Jr.	48	11	3	11	0
Christopher Boti	14	4	3	1	0
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kobe Singleton	36	0	0	12
Preston Hodge	44	3	0	7
Brylan Green	35	2	1	7