Liberty at Buffalo Game Matchup
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -2.5 (54.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Liberty 55 - Buffalo: 27

 
Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Liberty -19.5   (SP+ LIB -27)
Projected Score: LIB: 37 - BUFF: 18 (54)
LIB Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 391 miles
Bulls (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Maurice Linguist (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.548.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.054.5W 33 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Liberty at Buffalo-2.554.0W 55 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Liberty at Florida International-10.054.0W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5 Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.046.5W 21 - 16UN
Tue 10/10 Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.059.5W 31 - 13UY
Tue 10/17 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.056.5W 42 - 35ON
Tue 10/24 Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.061.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.558.0W 56 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.558.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.564.5W 49 - 25ON
Sat 11/25 Liberty at UTEP-18.054.5W 42 - 28ON
Fri 12/1 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.554.0W 49 - 35OY
Mon 1/1 Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Buffalo at Wisconsin+29.052.5L 17 - 38OY
Sat 9/9 Buffalo vs Fordham-23.555.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/16 Buffalo vs Liberty+2.554.0L 27 - 55ON
Sat 9/23 Buffalo at Louisiana+10.557.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 9/30 Buffalo at Akron+3.053.0W 13 - 10UY
Sat 10/7 Buffalo vs Central Michigan+2.551.5W 37 - 13UY
Sat 10/14 Buffalo vs Bowling Green-3.044.5L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/21 Buffalo at Kent State-6.544.0W 24 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Buffalo at Toledo+14.047.0L 13 - 31UN
Tue 11/7 Buffalo vs Ohio+9.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Wed 11/15 Buffalo at Miami (OH)+7.536.5L 10 - 23UN
Tue 11/21 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-6.538.5L 11 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB.1541%28.846%3.2217238%2173.61.136%23.538%36%3.5753.52.12.2
BUFF.1744%28.844%2.9214044%2154.06.2741%26.440%44%3.7943.51.32
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1328.828.841.4%3.612.1203891722174.650%48%46%38%19%.15
BUFF Defense1326.422.341.3%3.792 - - - - - 52%48%40%44%25%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1323.524.436.2%3.572.2 - - - - - 51%47%38%36%20%.1
BUFF Offense1328.838.243.6%4.061.3213551402153.651%47%44%44%22%.17

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1328:3720.437%48%6.253.52.12.28.43.2131.3
Buffalo1331:1720.641%61%4.743.51.3261.8129.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1350%46%37.8172.44.624.173.2268%13%1.05
BUFF Defense1352%40% - - - - .222.8968%15%1.33
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1351%38% - - - - .082.5975%14%1.06
BUFF Offense1351%44%39.41403.622.062.9271%12%0.83

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1348%38%17.630.4216.57.112.32115.221.631%26%.236%2.2
BUFF Defense1348%44% - - - - - - 11.361.734%31%.410%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1347%36% - - - - - - 14.191.736%27%.267%2
BUFF Offense1347%44%19.232.22156.711.2158.331.631%35%.359%2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 6.67   Buffalo: -10.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 11.8   Buffalo: -15.1




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.165 #120
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.90 #125
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.32 #50
2023 Talent Rating: 394.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Buffalo's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Buffalo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #117
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #125
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 37
Buffalo 18

Projected Total Points: 54
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202401/04Liberty7Buffalo26BuffaloBuffalo -4.5Buffalo50.5Under
202309/16Buffalo27Liberty55LibertyLiberty -2.5Liberty54.0Over
201909/14Liberty35Buffalo17LibertyBuffalo -6Liberty55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo111 Overs
Liberty222 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0

(#30) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51
Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30

Team Profile






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Liberty     Ratings Matchup     Buffalo
Power #30
#120
Off #3
#125
Def #42
#50
Talent #114
#116
SP+ #21
#117
SP+ Off #9
#125
SP+ Def #51
#87

Rematch from Week 3
Liberty 2.5 (54.0)
Liberty won at Buffalo this year (55-27)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Liberty last year (26-7)
Liberty beat Buffalo in 2023 (55-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70°

Team Information
Injuries: LIB | BUFF
Depth Chart: LIB | BUFF
Rosters: LIB | BUFF
(#120) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.165 #120
Offense Rating: 8.90 #125
Defense Rating: 8.32 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #125
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87
Talent Rating: 394.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40

Team Profile






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Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nate Hampton2922%40114.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)2051254136.144
Billy Lucas12372055.955
Nate Hampton1707.07
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Treon Sibley28510218.270
C.J. Daniels42480011.434
Bentley Hanshaw109219.221
Billy Lucas551010.218

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jerome Jolly Jr.555111
Kendy Charles507211
Jaylon Jimmerson495104
Aakil Washington411143
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Whitehead II24114150
Kendy Charles507211
Quinton Reese405210
Jerome Jolly Jr.555111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Preston Hodge321006
Jaylon Jimmerson495104
Aakil Washington411143

Buffalo's OC DJ Mangas
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cole Snyder23940260%26761596.7
Michael Washington010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington15871384.547
Cole Snyder13632242.429
Jacqez Barksdale8230623.719
Jacob Orlando (Tr)0100.01
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marlyn Johnson1716909.922
Javien Cuff11155114.128
Tadd Barr7128118.342
Jacob Orlando (Tr)1110129.234

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Robert Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shaun Dolac16818545
Marcus Fuqua554002
Devin Grant518223
Kameron Olds427621
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Kameron Olds427621
Shaun Dolac16818545
Devin Grant518223
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shaun Dolac16818545
Devin Grant518223
Marcus Fuqua554002