Middle Tennessee at Liberty - 2023 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Tuesday, October 17th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -16 (56.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Liberty 42 - Middle Tennessee: 35  (Conference USA)

 
Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (16 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MTSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -20   (SP+ LIB -21)

Projected Score: MTSU: 18 - LIB: 38 (56)
LIB Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
MTSU Travel: 412 miles, 1 hrs behind
Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 24 (40 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Middle Tennessee at Alabama+39.552.0L 7 - 56ON
Sat 9/9 Middle Tennessee at Missouri+21.047.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/16 Middle Tennessee vs Murray State-34.551.0W 35 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State-3.550.0L 23 - 31ON
Thu 9/28 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+6.561.0L 10 - 31UN
Wed 10/4 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State-2.552.0L 30 - 45ON
Tue 10/10 Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech-3.053.5W 31 - 23OY
Tue 10/17 Middle Tennessee at Liberty+16.056.5L 35 - 42OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.055.5L 7 - 13UN
Sat 11/11 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-10.550.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 Middle Tennessee vs UTEP-8.548.5W 34 - 30ON
Sat 11/25 Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston-3.549.5L 20 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.548.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.054.5W 33 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Liberty at Buffalo-2.554.0W 55 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Liberty at Florida International-10.054.0W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5 Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.046.5W 21 - 16UN
Tue 10/10 Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.059.5W 31 - 13UY
Tue 10/17 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.056.5W 42 - 35ON
Tue 10/24 Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.061.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.558.0W 56 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.558.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.564.5W 49 - 25ON
Sat 11/25 Liberty at UTEP-18.054.5W 42 - 28ON
Fri 12/1 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.554.0W 49 - 35OY
Mon 1/1 Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#95 (.14)39% (104)24.341% (93)3.08 (74)12639% (94)2663.2 (115)#60 (.17)43% (81)28.145% (88)42% (78)4.13 (100)56.31.81.3
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)38.356% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)24.347% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1224.316.339.4%3.21.8193911262663.942%57%41%39%17%.14
LIB Defense1424.32442.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1228.131.342.9%4.131.3 - - - - - 47%52%45%42%17%.17
LIB Offense1438.340.354.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1228:3219.340%45%6.856.31.81.35.81.9028.8
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1242% (117)41% (93)32125.53.913 (108).1 (93)3.08 (74)79% (22)11% (95)1.08 (28)
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1247% (30)45% (88) - - - - .06 (24)2.97 (43)71% (57)10% (65)0.85 (13)
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1257% (18)39% (94)24.636.5265.67.310.823 (51)13 (97).24 (84)1.6 (59)34% (101)26% (110).24 (94)6% (70)2.3 (6)
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1252% (104)42% (78) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (96)1.5 (47)30% (104)32% (90).35 (88)7% (31)2.2 (100)
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -7.24   Liberty: 11.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -9.4   Liberty: 11.8




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 38
Middle Tennessee 18


Total Points: 56

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 38.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Middle Tennessee17Liberty37LibertyLiberty -12.5Liberty54.5Under
202310/17Liberty42Middle Tennessee35LibertyLiberty -16Middle Tennessee56.5Over
202110/09Liberty41Middle Tennessee13LibertyLiberty -20Liberty59.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty321 Overs
Middle Tennessee012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#101) Middle Tennessee Info
Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90


Middle Tennessee has won 1 straight
Middle Tennessee has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Middle Tennessee Highlights
Middle Tennessee offense is explosive (#58)
Middle Tennessee defense does not give up big plays (#102)

Middle Tennessee Deficiencies
Middle Tennessee Can Not Run the Ball (#133)
Middle Tennessee offense is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#129)
Middle Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#109)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLIBMTSU
OverallOver#16#104
OffenseOff#11#104
DefenseDef#42#82
Special TeamsST#33#36
PassingPass#20#46
RushingRush#4#68
Run BlockRBLK#31#103
Pass BlockPBLK#82#49
Route RunningWR Rt#19#100
TacklingTkl#32#80
Run DefenseR Def#62#82
Pass Rush DefPRush#59#61
Coverage DefCov#34#81

Rematch from Week 8
Liberty -16.0 (56.5)
Liberty won vs Middle Tennessee this year (42-35)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee last year (37-17)
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (42-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MTSU | LIB
Depth Chart: MTSU | LIB
Rosters: MTSU | LIB
(#30) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30


Liberty has won 6 straight
Liberty has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 8 - 0 (5 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Liberty Highlights
Liberty is Undefeated at Home

Liberty has Really Good Running Game (#53)
Liberty offense is efficent (#55)
Liberty has a top Offensive Line (#49)
Liberty offense is good in red zone (#98)
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#75)

Liberty Secondary is very good (#118)
Liberty defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)


  
Middle Tennessee's OC Mitch Stewart
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato28642867%308723137.2
DJ Riles7888%78009.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)8942724.871
Nick Vattiato13940222.930
Frank Peasant8230643.737
Terry Wilkins1814618.175
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Holden Willis (Tr)46697515.262
Elijah Metcalf54634611.771
Justin Olson (Tr)43450110.542
DJ England-Chisolm28347312.472

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Scott Shafer
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield827480
Jakobe Thomas713005
Tra Fluellen643013
Parker Hughes537321
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Brumfield827480
Richard Kinley207333
Zaylin Wood164322
Parker Hughes537321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quindarius Dunnigan349258
Tyrell Raby (Tr)290006
De'Arre McDonald184106

Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter17729061%28763269.9
Johnathan Bennett1617%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)2211401166.360
Kaidon Salter1631089126.752
Billy Lucas11459765.243
Aaron Bedgood5855239.549
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels5510671019.475
Treon Sibley23467420.368
Noah Frith17323319.055
Elijah Smoot11221220.142

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyren Dupree1168362
Brandon Bishop583003
Joseph Carter552001
Quinton Reese502001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendy Charles265320
CJ Bazile Jr.48113110
Christopher Boti144310
Tyren Dupree1168362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Singleton3600012
Preston Hodge443007
Brylan Green352107