Bowling Green at Liberty - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -8.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Liberty 34 - Bowling Green: 24

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Liberty -16.5 (SP+ LIB -18)
Projected Score: BGSU: 17 - LIB: 34 (51)
LIB Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
BGSU Travel: 366 miles

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Liberty's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0	54.5	W 33 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5	54.0	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0	54.0	W 38 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0	46.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0	59.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0	56.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0	61.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5	58.0	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5	64.5	W 49 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0	54.5	W 42 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	54.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	.15	39%	20.5	40%	3.02	99	39%	236	2.88	.18	42%	24.3	41%	43%	4.08	68.9	1.8	1.9
LIB	.15	41%	25.6	46%	3.22	172	38%	217	3.61	.1	36%	26.5	38%	36%	3.57	53.5	2.1	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	24	39%	2.88	1.8	17	334	99	236	3.1	44%	55%	40%	39%	24%	.15
LIB Defense	13	26.5	27.3	36.2%	3.57	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	29	41.9%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	41%	43%	18%	.18
LIB Offense	13	25.6	31.5	41.4%	3.61	2.1	20	389	172	217	4.6	50%	48%	46%	38%	19%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	29:00	17.4	34%	44%	7.7	68.9	1.8	1.9	6.2	2.8	4	30.1
Liberty	13	28:37	20.4	37%	48%	6.2	53.5	2.1	2.2	8.4	3.2	1	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	44%	40%	31.9	98.7	3.1	8	.05	3.02	79%	15%	0.87
LIB Defense	13	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.59	75%	14%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.1	75%	12%	1.1
LIB Offense	13	50%	46%	37.8	172.4	4.6	24	.17	3.22	68%	13%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	55%	39%	20.5	33.8	235.5	7	11.5	25	11	.27	1.7	35%	27%	.26	9%	2
LIB Defense	13	47%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.7	36%	27%	.26	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.29	1.6	32%	34%	.35	6%	2.1
LIB Offense	13	48%	38%	17.6	30.4	216.5	7.1	12.3	21	15	.22	1.6	31%	26%	.23	6%	2.2

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 397.62 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -3.52 Liberty: 11.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -5.9 Liberty: 11.8

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 11.735 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 330.29 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 34
Bowling Green 17

Projected Total Points: 51

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Bowling Green	23	Liberty	13	Liberty -6	Bowling Green	51.5	Under
2023	09/02	Liberty	34	Bowling Green	24	Liberty -8.5	Liberty	48.5	Over
2003	09/13	Bowling Green	62	Liberty	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	1	1	1 Overs
Bowling Green	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#85) BGSU at (#30) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#85	#30
SP+SP+	#84	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#85	#21
OffenseOff	#107	#12
DefenseDef	#46	#50
Spec TeamsST	#59	#38
TalentTal	#113	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Bowling Green Injury Report

Liberty Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#50
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#91	#42
SP+SP+	#86	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#36	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#128	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#46
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#3	#36
SP+SP+	#9	#66
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#23

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Liberty -8.5 (48.5)
Liberty won vs Bowling Green this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Liberty last year (23-13)
Liberty beat Bowling Green in 2023 (34-24)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	168	277	61%	1935	12	7	7.0
Camden Orth	39	68	57%	486	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	125	762	8	6.1	54
Taron Keith	66	390	4	5.9	40
Camden Orth	67	208	5	3.1	18
Jaison Patterson	35	128	1	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	44	623	6	14.2	56
Odieu Hilaire	45	532	4	11.8	46
Taron Keith	44	457	3	10.4	58
Austin Osborne	29	302	0	10.4	42

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Joseph Sipp Jr.	73	4	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	27	11	10	5	1
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Jordan Porter	18	4	3	1	1
Dierre Kelly	20	4	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6
Jordan Oladokun	30	1	0	0	5

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	177	290	61%	2876	32	6	9.9
Johnathan Bennett	1	6	17%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)	221	1401	16	6.3	60
Kaidon Salter	163	1089	12	6.7	52
Billy Lucas	114	597	6	5.2	43
Aaron Bedgood	58	552	3	9.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
C.J. Daniels	55	1067	10	19.4	75
Treon Sibley	23	467	4	20.3	68
Noah Frith	17	323	3	19.0	55
Elijah Smoot	11	221	2	20.1	42

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2
Brandon Bishop	58	3	0	0	3
Joseph Carter	55	2	0	0	1
Quinton Reese	50	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendy Charles	26	5	3	2	0
CJ Bazile Jr.	48	11	3	11	0
Christopher Boti	14	4	3	1	0
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kobe Singleton	36	0	0	12
Preston Hodge	44	3	0	7
Brylan Green	35	2	1	7