Liberty at Western Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Tuesday, October 24th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Liberty -4 (61.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Liberty 42 - Western Kentucky: 29 (Conference USA)

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -8 (SP+ LIB -13.5)
Projected Score: LIB: 32 - WKU: 24 (56)
LIB Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 402 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0	54.5	W 33 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5	54.0	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0	54.0	W 38 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0	46.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0	59.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0	56.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0	61.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5	58.0	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5	64.5	W 49 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0	54.5	W 42 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	54.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Kentucky vs South Florida	-13.5	71.5	W 41 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian	-41.5	64.5	W 52 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/16	Western Kentucky at Ohio State	+29.5	65.0	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Kentucky at Troy	+3.5	57.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	61.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-6.0	59.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-7.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 10/24	Western Kentucky vs Liberty	+4.0	61.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Western Kentucky at UTEP	-9.5	54.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-4.5	55.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-12.5	52.0	W 28 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-11.5	54.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Mon 12/18	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.15	41%	25.6	46%	3.22	172	38%	217	3.61	.1	36%	26.5	38%	36%	3.57	53.5	2.1	2.2
WKU	.28	44%	29.5	43%	3.17	145	46%	352	3.63	.11	41%	22.8	44%	40%	4.02	57.5	1.6	2.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	13	25.6	19.7	41.4%	3.61	2.1	20	389	172	217	4.6	50%	48%	46%	38%	19%	.15
WKU Defense	14	22.8	18.8	41.4%	4.02	2.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	44%	40%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	13	26.5	25.7	36.2%	3.57	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.1
WKU Offense	14	29.5	35	44.5%	3.63	1.6	25	497	145	352	4.9	37%	62%	43%	46%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	13	28:37	20.4	37%	48%	6.2	53.5	2.1	2.2	8.4	3.2	1	31.3
Western Kentucky	14	28:57	24.6	42%	40%	6.2	57.5	1.6	2.9	4.9	2.3	5	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	13	50%	46%	37.8	172.4	4.6	24	.17	3.22	68%	13%	1.05
WKU Defense	14	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	79%	10%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	13	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.59	75%	14%	1.06
WKU Offense	14	37%	43%	29.6	145.1	4.9	15	.18	3.17	71%	7%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	13	48%	38%	17.6	30.4	216.5	7.1	12.3	21	15	.22	1.6	31%	26%	.23	6%	2.2
WKU Defense	14	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.12	1.4	33%	25%	.14	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	13	47%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.7	36%	27%	.26	7%	2
WKU Offense	14	62%	46%	28.7	44.4	352.3	7.9	12.3	43	12	.39	1.7	31%	37%	.52	10%	2.4

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 330.29 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 6.67 Western Kentucky: 1.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 11.8 Western Kentucky: -1.5

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 1.245 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 491.26 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 32
Western Kentucky 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Liberty	38	Western Kentucky	21	Liberty -1	Liberty	56.5	Over
2023	10/24	Western Kentucky	29	Liberty	42	Liberty -4	Liberty	61.5	Over
2020	09/19	Western Kentucky	24	Liberty	30	Western Kentucky -15.5	Liberty	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	0	0	3 Overs
Liberty	3	3	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#30) LIB at (#70) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#70
SP+SP+	#21	#72
Perf GradeGrade	#21	#108
OffenseOff	#12	#111
DefenseDef	#50	#90
Spec TeamsST	#38	#33
TalentTal	#127	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Liberty Injury Report

Western Kentucky Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#3	#70
SP+SP+	#9	#86
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#128

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#63
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#50
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#46	#42
SP+SP+	#55	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#133	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#83	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Liberty 4.0 (61.5)
Liberty won at Western Kentucky this year (42-29)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Western Kentucky in 2024 (38-21)
Liberty beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (42-29)

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	177	290	61%	2876	32	6	9.9
Johnathan Bennett	1	6	17%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)	221	1401	16	6.3	60
Kaidon Salter	163	1089	12	6.7	52
Billy Lucas	114	597	6	5.2	43
Aaron Bedgood	58	552	3	9.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
C.J. Daniels	55	1067	10	19.4	75
Treon Sibley	23	467	4	20.3	68
Noah Frith	17	323	3	19.0	55
Elijah Smoot	11	221	2	20.1	42

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2
Brandon Bishop	58	3	0	0	3
Joseph Carter	55	2	0	0	1
Quinton Reese	50	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendy Charles	26	5	3	2	0
CJ Bazile Jr.	48	11	3	11	0
Christopher Boti	14	4	3	1	0
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kobe Singleton	36	0	0	12
Preston Hodge	44	3	0	7
Brylan Green	35	2	1	7

WKU's OC Drew Hollingshead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Reed (Tr)	289	470	62%	3324	31	11	7.1
Caden Veltkamp	41	54	76%	387	5	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	104	490	3	4.7	64
Markese Stepp	69	310	3	4.5	56
Davion Ervin-Poindexter	63	241	1	3.8	18
LT Sanders	31	138	0	4.5	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Corley	79	984	11	12.5	75
Dalvin Smith	50	513	6	10.3	45
Easton Messer	42	484	4	11.5	35
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	20	326	2	16.3	39

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Talique Allen (Tr)	48	1	0	1	3
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Desmyn Baker	41	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Sebastian Benjamin	25	3	3	2	0
Hosea Wheeler	40	4	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Upton Stout	24	1	1	5	8
Rome Weber	19	1	0	0	7
Anthony Johnson Jr.	36	1	0	0	5