Liberty at Jacksonville State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Tuesday, October 10th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Liberty -7 (59.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Liberty 31 - Jacksonville State: 13 (Conference USA)

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

JVST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -8.5 (SP+ LIB -12.5)
Projected Score: LIB: 32 - JVST: 23 (55)
LIB Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 443 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Gamecocks (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (11 - 3)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (34 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
JVST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0	54.5	W 33 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5	54.0	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0	54.0	W 38 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0	46.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0	59.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0	56.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0	61.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5	58.0	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5	64.5	W 49 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0	54.5	W 42 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	54.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Jacksonville State vs UTEP	+1.5	54.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State	-20.0	55.0	W 49 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina	+13.5	61.0	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	51.0	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Jacksonville State at Sam Houston	-6.5	36.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Wed 10/4	Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee	+2.5	52.0	W 45 - 30	O	Y
Tue 10/10	Jacksonville State vs Liberty	+7.0	59.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/17	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	+7.5	60.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/25	Jacksonville State at Florida International	-9.0	48.0	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Jacksonville State at South Carolina	+15.5	55.0	L 28 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech	-8.5	53.5	W 56 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Jacksonville State at New Mexico State	+2.0	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/16	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana	-3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.15	41%	25.6	46%	3.22	172	38%	217	3.61	.1	36%	26.5	38%	36%	3.57	53.5	2.1	2.2
JVST	.32	47%	28.1	52%	3.32	0	42%	0	4.2	.13	38%	25.2	39%	38%	3.52	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
JVST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	13	25.6	19.7	41.4%	3.61	2.1	20	389	172	217	4.6	50%	48%	46%	38%	19%	.15
JVST Defense	1	25.2	23	37.9%	3.52	0	-	-	-	-	-	57%	42%	39%	38%	3950%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	13	26.5	25.7	36.2%	3.57	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.1
JVST Offense	1	28.1	34	47.2%	4.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	62%	36%	52%	42%	2047%	.32

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	13	28:37	20.4	37%	48%	6.2	53.5	2.1	2.2	8.4	3.2	1	31.3
Jacksonville State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	13	50%	46%	37.8	172.4	4.6	24	.17	3.22	68%	13%	1.05
JVST Defense	1	57%	39%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.84	69%	3949%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	13	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.59	75%	14%	1.06
JVST Offense	1	62%	52%	0	0	0	0	.36	3.32	76%	2046%	1.15

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	13	48%	38%	17.6	30.4	216.5	7.1	12.3	21	15	.22	1.6	31%	26%	.23	6%	2.2
JVST Defense	1	42%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.28	1.8	34%	27%	.21	1%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	13	47%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.7	36%	27%	.26	7%	2
JVST Offense	1	36%	42%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.35	1.9	28%	36%	.51	1%	2.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 330.29 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 6.67 Jacksonville State: 0.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 11.8 Jacksonville State: -0.7

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: 0.95 #79
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 13.61 #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 1.52 #13
2023 Talent Rating: 227.27 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Jacksonville State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
Jacksonville State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.7 #67
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #77
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 32
Jacksonville State 23

Projected Total Points: 55

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Jacksonville State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Jacksonville State	34	Liberty	24	Liberty -6.0	Jacksonville State	50.5	Over
2024	10/30	Liberty	21	Jacksonville State	31	Liberty -2.5	Jacksonville State	64.0	Under
2023	10/10	Jacksonville State	13	Liberty	31	Liberty -7	Liberty	59.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Jacksonville State	2	2	1 Overs
Liberty	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#30) LIB at (#79) JVST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	JVST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#79
SP+SP+	#21	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#21	#68
OffenseOff	#12	#68
DefenseDef	#50	#37
Spec TeamsST	#38	#124
TalentTal	#127	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Liberty Injury Report

Jacksonville State Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	JVST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#37
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#3	#13
SP+SP+	#9	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#4	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#73

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#36
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Jacksonville State on Offense


CategoryCat	JVST Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#50
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#93	#42
SP+SP+	#77	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Jacksonville State Run Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#59	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Jacksonville State Pass Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#27	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Liberty 7.0 (59.5)
Liberty won at Jacksonville State this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Liberty last year (34-24)
Jacksonville State beat Liberty in 2024 (31-21)
Liberty beat Jacksonville State in 2023 (31-13)

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	177	290	61%	2876	32	6	9.9
Johnathan Bennett	1	6	17%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)	221	1401	16	6.3	60
Kaidon Salter	163	1089	12	6.7	52
Billy Lucas	114	597	6	5.2	43
Aaron Bedgood	58	552	3	9.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
C.J. Daniels	55	1067	10	19.4	75
Treon Sibley	23	467	4	20.3	68
Noah Frith	17	323	3	19.0	55
Elijah Smoot	11	221	2	20.1	42

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2
Brandon Bishop	58	3	0	0	3
Joseph Carter	55	2	0	0	1
Quinton Reese	50	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendy Charles	26	5	3	2	0
CJ Bazile Jr.	48	11	3	11	0
Christopher Boti	14	4	3	1	0
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kobe Singleton	36	0	0	12
Preston Hodge	44	3	0	7
Brylan Green	35	2	1	7

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zion Webb	111	220	51%	1437	6	8	6.5
Logan Smothers	66	117	56%	735	6	4	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Jackson	146	897	7	6.1	68
Zion Webb	132	708	7	5.4	61
Ron Wiggins	92	468	6	5.1	37
Anwar Lewis	93	452	3	4.9	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perry Carter	38	687	4	18.1	63
Quinton Lane	31	346	1	11.2	30
Sean Brown	19	294	5	15.5	58
Michael Pettway	17	196	1	11.5	37

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quae Drake	92	7	2	2	2
Kolbi Fuqua	86	6	3	6	1
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Jeremiah Harris	65	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Hardie	59	14	8	4	1
Curley Young Jr.	33	6	5	3	0
Jaylen Swain	30	7	4	4	2
Kamari Stephens	12	6	4	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derek Carter	44	2	0	0	8
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Kekoura Tarnue	53	2	1	0	4