Toledo at Bowling Green - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 14th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -9.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 32 - Bowling Green: 31 (Mid-American)

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (28 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Toledo -8 (SP+ TOL -10)
Projected Score: TOL: 28 - BGSU: 20 (48)
TOL Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TOL Travel: 19 miles

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 24 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	32.3	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	20.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	26.2	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	32.3	27.8	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28
BGSU Defense	13	24	24	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	20.3	20.8	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1
BGSU Offense	13	26.2	28.2	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27 Bowling Green: -2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0 Bowling Green: -5.9

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.21 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 28
Bowling Green 20

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 23
Toledo 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 27
Bowling Green 24

Total Points: 51

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	23	Toledo -10.5	Bowling Green	45.5	Over
2024	10/26	Toledo	26	Bowling Green	41	Toledo -1.5	Bowling Green	47.5	Over
2023	11/14	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	32	Toledo -9.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Over
2022	11/15	Toledo	35	Bowling Green	42	Toledo -14.5	Bowling Green	47.0	Over
2021	11/10	Bowling Green	17	Toledo	49	Toledo -10.5	Toledo	50.0	Over
2020	11/04	Toledo	38	Bowling Green	3	Toledo -24	Toledo	63.0	Under
2019	10/12	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	7	Toledo -26.5	Bowling Green	65.0	Under
2018	10/06	Toledo	52	Bowling Green	36	Toledo -23	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2017	11/15	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	66	Toledo -17.5	Toledo	66.0	Over
2016	10/15	Toledo	42	Bowling Green	35	Toledo -24	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2015	11/17	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	44	Bowling Green -9	Toledo	72.5	Under
2014	11/19	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	20	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	0
2013	10/26	Bowling Green	25	Toledo	28	Bowling Green -3	Toledo	0
2012	09/15	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	15
2011	10/15	Bowling Green	21	Toledo	28
2010	11/17	Toledo	33	Bowling Green	14
2009	11/27	Bowling Green	38	Toledo	24
2008	11/28	Toledo	10	Bowling Green	38
2007	11/23	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	10
2006	11/21	Toledo	31	Bowling Green	21
2005	11/22	Bowling Green	41	Toledo	44
2004	11/23	Toledo	49	Bowling Green	41
2003	11/29	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	23
2001	11/23	Bowling Green	56	Toledo	21
2000	11/21	Toledo	51	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	9	7	8 Overs
Toledo	16	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 6	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	8 - 5	2 - 3	6 - 2

(#29) TOL at (#85) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	BGSU
Power RatePwr	#29	#85
SP+SP+	#51	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#22	#85
OffenseOff	#45	#107
DefenseDef	#12	#46
Spec TeamsST	#35	#59
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Toledo Injury Report

Bowling Green Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#45	#46
SuccessSuc	#34	#63
ExplosiveExp	#39	#46
PPAPPA	#27	#44
PowerPwr	#30	#36
SP+SP+	#65	#66
Pts POPPO	#26	#62
HavocHav	#15	#41

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#119
Run ExplRExp	#38	#41
PPAExp	#41	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#132
TackleTak	-	#23

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#111
PPAExp	#24	#35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#41	#27
F7 HavocF7	#24	#67
DB HavocDB	#35	#21

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#107	#12
SuccessSuc	#81	#29
ExplosiveExp	#25	#38
PPAPPA	#74	#22
PowerPwr	#91	#24
SP+SP+	#86	#35
Pts POPPO	#87	#22
HavocHav	#103	#43

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#36	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#54
Run ExplRExp	#24	#64
PPAExp	#65	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#77
TackleTak	-	#10

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#43
PPAExp	#72	#10
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	#7
F7 HavocF7	#121	#73
DB HavocDB	#54	#16

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Toledo 9.5 (48.5)
Toledo won at Bowling Green this year (32-31)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2022 (42-35)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	168	277	61%	1935	12	7	7.0
Camden Orth	39	68	57%	486	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	125	762	8	6.1	54
Taron Keith	66	390	4	5.9	40
Camden Orth	67	208	5	3.1	18
Jaison Patterson	35	128	1	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	44	623	6	14.2	56
Odieu Hilaire	45	532	4	11.8	46
Taron Keith	44	457	3	10.4	58
Austin Osborne	29	302	0	10.4	42

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Joseph Sipp Jr.	73	4	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	27	11	10	5	1
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Jordan Porter	18	4	3	1	1
Dierre Kelly	20	4	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6
Jordan Oladokun	30	1	0	0	5