Toledo at Bowling Green Game Matchup

Tuesday, November 14th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -9.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 32 - Bowling Green: 31 (Mid-American)

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Toledo -8 (SP+ TOL -10)
Projected Score: TOL: 28 - BGSU: 20 (50)
TOL Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TOL Travel: 19 miles

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (24 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.19	43%	28.3	44%	3	178	43%	225	4.23	.07	34%	23.2	36%	34%	3.97	55.4	1.9	1.6
BGSU	.15	39%	27.1	40%	3.02	99	39%	236	2.88	.18	42%	21.6	41%	43%	4.08	68.9	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	28.3	22.2	42.8%	4.23	1.9	22	403	178	225	4.3	55%	44%	44%	43%	16%	.19
BGSU Defense	13	21.6	18.5	41.9%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	41%	43%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	23.2	21.3	34.2%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	34%	18%	.07
BGSU Offense	13	27.1	24.2	39%	2.88	1.8	17	334	99	236	3.1	44%	55%	40%	39%	24%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	29:31	22	41%	59%	6.7	55.4	1.9	1.6	5.5	2.2	2	29.6
Bowling Green	13	29:00	17.4	34%	44%	7.7	68.9	1.8	1.9	6.2	2.8	4	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	55%	44%	41.4	177.8	4.3	23	.14	3	76%	10%	0.92
BGSU Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.1	75%	12%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.04	83%	10%	1.08
BGSU Offense	13	44%	40%	31.9	98.7	3.1	8	.05	3.02	79%	15%	0.87

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	44%	43%	17.6	31.4	224.9	7.2	12.8	31	15	.35	1.7	32%	30%	.32	5%	2.2
BGSU Defense	13	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.29	1.6	32%	34%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.08	1.6	37%	23%	.09	8%	2
BGSU Offense	13	55%	39%	20.5	33.8	235.5	7	11.5	25	11	.27	1.7	35%	27%	.26	9%	2

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27 Bowling Green: -2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0 Bowling Green: -5.9

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.21 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 28
Bowling Green 20

Projected Total Points: 50

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Toledo	26	Bowling Green	41	Bowling Green	Toledo -1.5	Bowling Green	47.5	Over
2023	11/14	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	32	Toledo	Toledo -9.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Over
2022	11/15	Toledo	35	Bowling Green	42	Bowling Green	Toledo -14.5	Bowling Green	47.0	Over
2021	11/10	Bowling Green	17	Toledo	49	Toledo	Toledo -10.5	Toledo	50.0	Over
2020	11/04	Toledo	38	Bowling Green	3	Toledo	Toledo -24	Toledo	63.0	Under
2019	10/12	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	7	Bowling Green	Toledo -26.5	Bowling Green	65.0	Under
2018	10/06	Toledo	52	Bowling Green	36	Toledo	Toledo -23	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2017	11/15	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	66	Toledo	Toledo -17.5	Toledo	66.0	Over
2016	10/15	Toledo	42	Bowling Green	35	Toledo	Toledo -24	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2015	11/17	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	44	Toledo	Bowling Green -9	Toledo	72.5	Under
2014	11/19	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	0
2013	10/26	Bowling Green	25	Toledo	28	Toledo	Bowling Green -3	Toledo	0
2012	09/15	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	15	Toledo
2011	10/15	Bowling Green	21	Toledo	28	Toledo
2010	11/17	Toledo	33	Bowling Green	14	Toledo
2009	11/27	Bowling Green	38	Toledo	24	Bowling Green
2008	11/28	Toledo	10	Bowling Green	38	Bowling Green
2007	11/23	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	10	Bowling Green
2006	11/21	Toledo	31	Bowling Green	21	Toledo
2005	11/22	Bowling Green	41	Toledo	44	Toledo
2004	11/23	Toledo	49	Bowling Green	41	Toledo
2003	11/29	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	23	Bowling Green
2001	11/23	Bowling Green	56	Toledo	21	Bowling Green
2000	11/21	Toledo	51	Bowling Green	17	Toledo

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	8	6	7 Overs
Toledo	16	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	4 - 8	2 - 6	2 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 14	8 - 4	2 - 2	6 - 2

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Team Profile

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Toledo Ratings Matchup Bowling Green

Power #29

#85

Off #30

#91

Def #24

#36

Talent #82

#82

SP+ #51

#84

SP+ Off #65

#86

SP+ Def #35

#66

Rematch from Week 12
Toledo 9.5 (48.5)
Toledo won at Bowling Green this year (32-31)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2022 (42-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 45°

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | BGSU
Depth Chart: TOL | BGSU
Rosters: TOL | BGSU

(#85) Bowling Green Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.21 #85
Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40

Team Profile

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Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Peny Boone	34	208	2	6.1	59
Dequan Finn	21	66	2	3.1	39
Jerjuan Newton	1	1	0	1.0	1

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34
Justin Stephens	1	17	0	17.0	17

View Toledo's Full Roster

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2
Cavon Butler	45	6	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Bowling Green's OC Greg Nosal

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Harold Fannin	1	2	50%	9	0	0	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Harold Fannin	9	65	1	7.2	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36
Taron Keith	13	157	0	12.1	64
Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim	14	121	0	8.6	20

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

Bowling Green's DC Sammy Lawanson

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Canaan Williams	46	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0
Cashius Howell	40	9	4	8	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	40	9	4	8	7
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	0	7
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3