Toledo at Central Michigan - 2023 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas

Friday, November 24th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -12.5 (54.5) (-340) Open: -12.5
Toledo 32 - Central Michigan: 17 (Mid-American)

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (28 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Road Game
CMU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -18.5 (SP+ TOL -23)
Projected Score: TOL: 37 - CMU: 18 (55)
TOL Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
TOL Travel: 145 miles

Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 31 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
CMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Central Michigan at Michigan State	+14.0	45.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/9	Central Michigan vs New Hampshire	-7.0	48.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Central Michigan at Notre Dame	+34.5	51.5	L 17 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Central Michigan at South Alabama	+16.5	46.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	45.0	W 26 - 23	O	N
Sat 10/7	Central Michigan at Buffalo	-2.5	51.5	L 13 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Central Michigan vs Akron	-10.5	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/21	Central Michigan at Ball State	-5.0	42.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+3.0	48.0	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+3.5	57.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/15	Central Michigan at Ohio	+11.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Fri 11/24	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 32	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	32.3	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	20.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3
CMU	#83 (.16)	40% (101)	23.2	43% (72)	3.29 (35)	160	36% (111)	185	4.2 (39)	#128 (.32)	45% (115)	31.1	48% (116)	44% (95)	4.43 (121)	58.1	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
CMU	#96 (.15)	39% (115)		42% (88)	3.2 (41)	169	34% (124)	163	3.82 (80)	#96 (.21)	40% (44)		41% (48)	39% (50)	3.6 (45)	60.9	2	0.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	32.3	27.8	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28
CMU Defense	12	31.1	27.6	45.5%	4.43	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	44%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	20.3	20.8	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1
CMU Offense	12	23.2	28.4	39.5%	4.2	1.3	19	344	160	185	4.2	56%	43%	43%	36%	14%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31
Central Michigan	12	30:13	18.9	34%	70%	6.7	58.1	1.3	0.7	4.6	1.5	1	29.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)
CMU Defense	12	51% (86)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.25 (118)	3.4 (119)	77% (97)	8% (121)	1.04 (91)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)
CMU Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (72)	38	159.5	4.2	21 (54)	.22 (30)	3.29 (35)	77% (36)	10% (68)	1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)
CMU Defense	12	48% (50)	44% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.41 (122)	1.7 (96)	31% (90)	29% (52)	.35 (87)	5% (98)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)
CMU Offense	12	43% (110)	36% (111)	15.3	27.1	184.7	6.8	12.1	15 (96)	11 (68)	.16 (108)	1.7 (31)	36% (125)	28% (86)	.36 (62)	4% (9)	2.3 (14)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27 Central Michigan: -12.985

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0 Central Michigan: -19.2

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -12.985 #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74 #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30 #125
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2 #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 37
Central Michigan 18

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 31
Central Michigan 27

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 30
Central Michigan 23

Total Points: 53

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.4
Defense: 31.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.6

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Central Michigan	3	Toledo	21	Toledo -11.5	Toledo	46.5	Under
2024	11/12	Toledo	37	Central Michigan	10	Toledo -15	Toledo	52.5	Under
2023	11/24	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	32	Toledo -12.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2022	10/01	Toledo	38	Central Michigan	17	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	56.0	Under
2021	10/16	Central Michigan	26	Toledo	23	Toledo -5	Central Michigan	53.0	Under
2020	12/12	Toledo	24	Central Michigan	23	Toledo -10	Central Michigan	54.5	Under
2019	11/29	Central Michigan	49	Toledo	7	Central Michigan -14.5	Central Michigan	64.0	Under
2018	11/23	Toledo	51	Central Michigan	13	Toledo -19	Toledo	58.0	Over
2017	10/14	Central Michigan	10	Toledo	30	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	55.0	Under
2016	10/22	Toledo	31	Central Michigan	17	Toledo -10	Toledo	61.5	Under
2015	11/10	Central Michigan	23	Toledo	28	Toledo -6	Central Michigan	54.5	Under
2014	09/27	Toledo	42	Central Michigan	28	Toledo -15	Central Michigan	0
2013	09/21	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	38	Toledo -14	Toledo	0
2012	10/06	Toledo	50	Central Michigan	35
2011	11/18	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	44
2010	11/26	Toledo	42	Central Michigan	31
2009	11/11	Central Michigan	56	Toledo	28
2008	10/25	Toledo	23	Central Michigan	24
2007	09/08	Central Michigan	52	Toledo	31
2006	10/07	Toledo	20	Central Michigan	42
2005	10/29	Central Michigan	21	Toledo	17
2004	10/23	Toledo	27	Central Michigan	22
2003	10/18	Central Michigan	13	Toledo	31
2002	11/09	Toledo	44	Central Michigan	17
2001	09/22	Central Michigan	28	Toledo	52
2000	09/29	Toledo	41	Central Michigan	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Central Michigan	7	5	1 Overs
Toledo	19	8	10 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 10	7 - 6	5 - 2	2 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 16	6 - 7	4 - 2	2 - 5

(#29) TOL at (#124) CMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	CMU
Power RatePwr	#29	#124
SP+SP+	#51	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#22	#111
OffenseOff	#45	#113
DefenseDef	#12	#101
Spec TeamsST	#35	#34
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Toledo Injury Report

Central Michigan Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#45	#101
SuccessSuc	#34	#115
ExplosiveExp	#39	#93
PPAPPA	#27	#128
PowerPwr	#30	#125
SP+SP+	#65	#109
Pts POPPO	#26	#121
HavocHav	#15	#119

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#116
Run ExplRExp	#38	#91
PPAExp	#41	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#117
TackleTak	-	#53

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#95
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#96
PPAExp	#24	#122
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#41	#92
F7 HavocF7	#24	#121
DB HavocDB	#35	#98

Central Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#113	#12
SuccessSuc	#101	#29
ExplosiveExp	#42	#38
PPAPPA	#83	#22
PowerPwr	#74	#24
SP+SP+	#119	#35
Pts POPPO	#39	#22
HavocHav	#39	#43

Central Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#98	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#54
Run ExplRExp	#23	#64
PPAExp	#30	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#77
TackleTak	-	#10

Central Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#111	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#43
PPAExp	#108	#10
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#116	#7
F7 HavocF7	#68	#73
DB HavocDB	#9	#16

Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 31° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 13
Toledo 12.5 (54.5)
Toledo won at Central Michigan this year (32-17)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2022 (38-17)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8

CMU's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jase Bauer	163	287	57%	1881	12	8	6.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.	19	37	51%	286	3	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	144	737	5	5.1	46
Myles Bailey	102	476	3	4.7	48
Jase Bauer	121	366	10	3.0	29
Bert Emanuel Jr.	50	220	2	4.4	66

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyson Davis	29	444	4	15.3	67
Jesse Prewitt III	31	438	4	14.1	70
Chris Parker	23	409	3	17.8	62
Marion Lukes	29	300	0	10.3	44

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Jones	61	3	0	0	2
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Dakota Cochran	51	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacques Bristol	41	8	4	5	2
Maurice White	18	5	4	5	0
Quindario Lee	26	7	3	4	0
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Daraun McKinney	39	3	0	1	4