Toledo at Central Michigan - 2023 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo   Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas  Central Michigan logo
Friday, November 24th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -12.5 (54.5) (-340)  Open: -12.5
Toledo 32 - Central Michigan: 17  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL 2nd straight Road Game
CMU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -18.5  (SP+ TOL -23)
Projected Score: TOL: 34 - CMU: 15 (49)
TOL Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
TOL Travel: 145 miles
Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Central Michigan at Michigan State+14.045.0L 7 - 31UN
Sat 9/9 Central Michigan vs New Hampshire-7.048.5W 45 - 42ON
Sat 9/16 Central Michigan at Notre Dame+34.551.5L 17 - 41OY
Sat 9/23 Central Michigan at South Alabama+16.546.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 9/30 Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-9.545.0W 26 - 23ON
Sat 10/7 Central Michigan at Buffalo-2.551.5L 13 - 37UN
Sat 10/14 Central Michigan vs Akron-10.544.0W 17 - 10UN
Sat 10/21 Central Michigan at Ball State-5.042.0L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois+3.048.0W 37 - 31OY
Tue 11/7 Central Michigan at Western Michigan+3.557.5L 28 - 38ON
Wed 11/15 Central Michigan at Ohio+11.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Fri 11/24 Central Michigan vs Toledo+12.554.5L 17 - 32UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%30.844%317843%2254.23.0734%13.336%34%3.9755.41.91.6
CMU.138%22.540%3.0315938%2083.29.1741%23.541%42%3.5862.82.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1430.817.342.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
CMU Defense1223.515.241.2%3.581 - - - - - 54%46%41%42%22%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1413.316.734.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
CMU Offense1222.530.438.5%3.292.3203671592084.347%51%40%38%23%.1

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Central Michigan1228:4619.935%55%6.962.82.318.32.5028.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
CMU Defense1254%41% - - - - .112.9674%15%1.06
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
CMU Offense1247%40%37159.24.322.053.0362%13%1.09

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
CMU Defense1246%42% - - - - - - 4.281.634%30%.278%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
CMU Offense1251%38%18.332.4208.16.411.41610.191.636%33%.3310%2.1

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27  #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47  #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60  #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64  #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0  #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27   Central Michigan: -12.985

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0   Central Michigan: -19.2




Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -12.985  #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74  #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30  #125
2023 Talent Rating: 332.64  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2  #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7  #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 34
Central Michigan 15

Projected Total Points: 49
Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Central Michigan3Toledo21Toledo -11.5Toledo46.5Under
202411/12Toledo37Central Michigan10Toledo -15Toledo52.5Under
202311/24Central Michigan17Toledo32Toledo -12.5Toledo54.5Under
202210/01Toledo38Central Michigan17Toledo -6.5Toledo56.0Under
202110/16Central Michigan26Toledo23Toledo -5Central Michigan53.0Under
202012/12Toledo24Central Michigan23Toledo -10Central Michigan54.5Under
201911/29Central Michigan49Toledo7Central Michigan -14.5Central Michigan64.0Under
201811/23Toledo51Central Michigan13Toledo -19Toledo58.0Over
201710/14Central Michigan10Toledo30Toledo -9.5Toledo55.0Under
201610/22Toledo31Central Michigan17Toledo -10Toledo61.5Under
201511/10Central Michigan23Toledo28Toledo -6Central Michigan54.5Under
201409/27Toledo42Central Michigan28Toledo -15Central Michigan0
201309/21Central Michigan17Toledo38Toledo -14Toledo0
201210/06Toledo50Central Michigan35
201111/18Central Michigan17Toledo44
201011/26Toledo42Central Michigan31
200911/11Central Michigan56Toledo28
200810/25Toledo23Central Michigan24
200709/08Central Michigan52Toledo31
200610/07Toledo20Central Michigan42
200510/29Central Michigan21Toledo17
200410/23Toledo27Central Michigan22
200310/18Central Michigan13Toledo31
200211/09Toledo44Central Michigan17
200109/22Central Michigan28Toledo52
200009/29Toledo41Central Michigan0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Central Michigan751 Overs
Toledo19810 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 107 - 65 - 22 - 4
Road Teams10 - 166 - 74 - 22 - 5

(#29) TOL at (#124) CMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLCMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #29 #124
SP+SP+ #51 #126
Perf GradeGrade #22 #111
OffenseOff #45 #113
DefenseDef #12 #101
Spec TeamsST #35 #34
TalentTal #88 #126
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #101
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #30 #125
SP+SP+ #65 #109
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
Run GameRun #58 #93
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #53
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
Pass GamePass #25 #98
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #92
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Central Michigan on Offense
CategoryCatCMU OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #113 #12
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #74 #24
SP+SP+ #119 #35
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Central Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
CMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #98 #15
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #80 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #10
Central Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCatCMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #90 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116 #7
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Toledo 12.5 (54.5)
Toledo won at Central Michigan this year (32-17)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (21-3)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2024 (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn20131763%26512298.4
Tucker Gleason285551%383417.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peny Boone1941400157.271
Jacquez Stuart11057465.280
Dequan Finn12356374.656
Willie Shaw III3111803.814
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton52696913.442
Junior Vandeross47664414.168
Anthony Torres26464317.839
Larry Stephens22260211.828

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Gant1148102
Daniel Bolden947133
Maxen Hook690014
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren684003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Judge Culpepper3911920
D'Andre Ragin408530
Deshawn Holt266440
Jeremiah Peters227420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinyon Mitchell4120018
Ronald Delancy III2810010
Chris McDonald340008

CMU's OC Paul Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jase Bauer16328757%18811286.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.193751%286337.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marion Lukes14473755.146
Myles Bailey10247634.748
Jase Bauer121366103.029
Bert Emanuel Jr.5022024.466
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyson Davis29444415.367
Jesse Prewitt III31438414.170
Chris Parker23409317.862
Marion Lukes29300010.344

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Jones613002
Kyle Moretti593215
Donte Kent523117
Dakota Cochran512011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacques Bristol418452
Maurice White185450
Quindario Lee267340
Kyle Moretti593215
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donte Kent523117
Kyle Moretti593215
Daraun McKinney393014