Northern Illinois at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -13 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 35 - Northern Illinois: 33 (Mid-American)

Huskies (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (18 - 29)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 4.8 (#42)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 4th straight Home Game
TOL is playing their 5th straight game
NIU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -12.5 (SP+ TOL -11)
Projected Score: NIU: 17 - TOL: 30 (47)
TOL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
NIU Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Northern Illinois at Boston College	+8.0	50.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-6.5	58.5	L 11 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	Northern Illinois at Nebraska	+11.5	42.5	L 11 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northern Illinois vs Tulsa	-3.5	54.5	L 14 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/30	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	48.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Northern Illinois at Akron	-4.0	42.5	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Northern Illinois vs Ohio	+5.5	45.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	-11.5	43.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	-3.0	48.0	L 31 - 37	O	N
Tue 11/7	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 11/14	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	-4.5	55.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northern Illinois at Kent State	-20.5	44.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	.19	41%	17.1	40%	3.16	190	43%	183	3.63	.27	44%	24.3	43%	47%	4.14	62.5	1.3	1.8
TOL	.19	43%	30.8	44%	3	178	43%	225	4.23	.07	34%	13.3	36%	34%	3.97	55.4	1.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	12	17.1	16.3	40.7%	3.63	1.3	19	373	190	183	4.8	59%	39%	40%	43%	16%	.19
TOL Defense	14	13.3	7.7	34.2%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	34%	18%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	12	24.3	27.8	44.5%	4.14	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	43%	47%	15%	.27
TOL Offense	14	30.8	45.8	42.8%	4.23	1.9	22	403	178	225	4.3	55%	44%	44%	43%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	12	30:48	18.8	39%	48%	6.3	62.5	1.3	1.8	4.6	2.4	1	30
Toledo	14	29:31	22	41%	59%	6.7	55.4	1.9	1.6	5.5	2.2	2	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	12	59%	40%	39.8	190.4	4.8	19	.16	3.16	82%	8%	1.05
TOL Defense	14	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.04	83%	10%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	12	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.26	73%	9%	0.9
TOL Offense	14	55%	44%	41.4	177.8	4.3	23	.14	3	76%	10%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	12	39%	43%	15.4	27.3	182.7	6.7	11.9	18	14	.33	1.6	32%	29%	.18	8%	1.9
TOL Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.08	1.6	37%	23%	.09	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	12	47%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.49	1.8	31%	32%	.51	6%	2.5
TOL Offense	14	44%	43%	17.6	31.4	224.9	7.2	12.8	31	15	.35	1.7	32%	30%	.32	5%	2.2

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -1.76 #74
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
2023 Talent Rating: 352.36 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Northern Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80
Northern Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -1.76 Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -6.7 Toledo: 4.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 30
Northern Illinois 17

Projected Total Points: 47

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/05	Toledo	42	Northern Illinois	3	Toledo -14.5	Toledo	42.5	Over
2024	10/19	Northern Illinois	6	Toledo	13	Northern Illinois -3	Toledo	42.5	Under
2023	09/30	Toledo	35	Northern Illinois	33	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	48.0	Over
2022	10/08	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo	52	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	59.0	Over
2021	10/09	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	22	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	51.5	Under
2020	12/05	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	41	Toledo -9	Toledo	53.5	Over
2019	11/13	Toledo	28	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2018	11/07	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	15	Northern Illinois -3.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2017	11/02	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo -7.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2016	11/09	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	31	Toledo -7.5	Northern Illinois	69.5	Under
2015	11/03	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo -7	Northern Illinois	62.0	Under
2014	11/11	Northern Illinois	27	Toledo	24	Northern Illinois -3.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/20	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	0
2012	11/14	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo	24
2011	11/01	Toledo	60	Northern Illinois	63
2010	11/09	Northern Illinois	65	Toledo	30
2009	10/17	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	19
2008	10/18	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	7
2007	10/27	Toledo	70	Northern Illinois	21
2006	11/07	Northern Illinois	13	Toledo	17
2005	11/16	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35
2004	11/09	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo	31
2003	11/15	Toledo	49	Northern Illinois	30
2001	09/29	Toledo	41	Northern Illinois	20
2000	11/03	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	14	6	5 Overs
Northern Illinois	11	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	4 - 9	3 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	9 - 4	3 - 1	6 - 3

(#74) NIU at (#29) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#74	#29
SP+SP+	#85	#51
Perf GradeGrade	#82	#22
OffenseOff	#78	#45
DefenseDef	#64	#12
Spec TeamsST	#119	#35
TalentTal	#120	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#12
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#61	#24
SP+SP+	#109	#35
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#83	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#31	#7
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#45	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#30	#48
SP+SP+	#65	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#67
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#60

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#92
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Toledo -13.0 (48.0)
Toledo won vs Northern Illinois this year (35-33)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (42-3)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2024 (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocky Lombardi	189	327	58%	2274	11	7	7.0
Ethan Hampton	19	33	58%	147	2	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Antario Brown	212	1294	10	6.1	80
Gavin Williams (Tr)	95	488	3	5.1	53
Trayvon Rudolph	22	182	1	8.3	36
Rocky Lombardi	72	131	7	1.8	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	51	531	2	10.4	72
Grayson Barnes	23	422	5	18.3	58
Kacper Rutkiewicz	20	313	2	15.7	64
Davis Patterson	16	197	0	12.3	28

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raishein Thomas	74	7	3	5	1
Jaden Dolphin	63	1	0	0	3
Tyler Jackson	56	2	0	2	0
DaRon Gilbert	52	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Ester	44	6	4	3	2
Roy Williams	24	6	4	1	1
George Gumbs	34	8	4	2	0
Devonte O'Malley	33	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jashon Prophete	33	1	8
Javaughn Byrd	32	2	5
Jacob Finley	33	1	3

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8