Northern Illinois at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview
Northern Illinois logo Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -13 (48.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Toledo 35 - Northern Illinois: 33  (Mid-American)

 
Huskies (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (18 - 29)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (21 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 4.8 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL 4th straight Home Game
TOL is playing their 5th straight game
NIU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -12.5   (SP+ TOL -11)
Projected Score: NIU: 18 - TOL: 30 (47)
TOL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
NIU Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs behind
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Northern Illinois at Boston College+8.050.0W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois-6.558.5L 11 - 14UN
Sat 9/16 Northern Illinois at Nebraska+11.542.5L 11 - 35ON
Sat 9/23 Northern Illinois vs Tulsa-3.554.5L 14 - 22UN
Sat 9/30 Northern Illinois at Toledo+13.048.0L 33 - 35OY
Sat 10/7 Northern Illinois at Akron-4.042.5W 55 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Northern Illinois vs Ohio+5.545.0W 23 - 13UY
Sat 10/21 Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan-11.543.5W 20 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan-3.048.0L 31 - 37ON
Tue 11/7 Northern Illinois vs Ball State-9.543.5L 17 - 20UN
Tue 11/14 Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan-4.555.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 11/25 Northern Illinois at Kent State-20.544.5W 37 - 27ON
Sat 12/23 Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State+2.554.0W 21 - 19UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU.1941%24.540%3.1619043%1833.63.2744%18.543%47%4.1462.51.31.8
TOL.1943%28.344%317843%2254.23.0734%23.236%34%3.9755.41.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Offense1224.520.740.7%3.631.3193731901834.859%39%40%43%16%.19
TOL Defense1423.221.334.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Defense1218.519.744.5%4.141.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%47%15%.27
TOL Offense1428.331.242.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Illinois1230:4818.839%48%6.362.51.31.84.62.4130
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Offense1259%40%39.8190.44.819.163.1682%8%1.05
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Defense1251%43% - - - - .113.2673%9%0.9
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Offense1239%43%15.427.3182.76.711.91814.331.632%29%.188%1.9
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Defense1247%47% - - - - - - 8.491.831%32%.516%2.5
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -1.76 #74
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
2023 Talent Rating: 670.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Northern Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80
Northern Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -1.76   Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -6.7   Toledo: 4.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.7

Northern Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 30
Northern Illinois 18

Projected Total Points: 47
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Northern Illinois6Toledo13ToledoNorthern Illinois -3Toledo42.5Under
202309/30Toledo35Northern Illinois33ToledoToledo -13Northern Illinois48.0Over
202210/08Northern Illinois32Toledo52ToledoToledo -6.5Toledo59.0Over
202110/09Toledo20Northern Illinois22Northern IllinoisToledo -13Northern Illinois51.5Under
202012/05Northern Illinois24Toledo41ToledoToledo -9Toledo53.5Over
201911/13Toledo28Northern Illinois31Northern IllinoisToledo -2.5Northern Illinois54.5Over
201811/07Northern Illinois38Toledo15Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois -3.5Northern Illinois54.0Under
201711/02Toledo27Northern Illinois17ToledoToledo -7.5Toledo56.5Under
201611/09Northern Illinois24Toledo31ToledoToledo -7.5Northern Illinois69.5Under
201511/03Toledo27Northern Illinois32Northern IllinoisToledo -7Northern Illinois62.0Under
201411/11Northern Illinois27Toledo24Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois -3.5Toledo0
201311/20Toledo17Northern Illinois35Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois -3Northern Illinois0
201211/14Northern Illinois31Toledo24Northern Illinois
201111/01Toledo60Northern Illinois63Northern Illinois
201011/09Northern Illinois65Toledo30Northern Illinois
200910/17Toledo20Northern Illinois19Toledo
200810/18Northern Illinois38Toledo7Northern Illinois
200710/27Toledo70Northern Illinois21Toledo
200611/07Northern Illinois13Toledo17Toledo
200511/16Toledo17Northern Illinois35Northern Illinois
200411/09Northern Illinois17Toledo31Toledo
200311/15Toledo49Northern Illinois30Toledo
200109/29Toledo41Northern Illinois20Toledo
200011/03Northern Illinois24Toledo38Toledo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo1354 Overs
Northern Illinois1176 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 133 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams13 - 119 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#74) Northern Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.76 #74
Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47
Talent Rating: 670.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80

Team Profile






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Northern Illinois     Ratings Matchup     Toledo
Power #74
#29
Off #61
#30
Def #48
#24
Talent #58
#82
SP+ #85
#51
SP+ Off #109
#65
SP+ Def #47
#35

Rematch from Week 5
Toledo -13.0 (48.0)
Toledo won vs Northern Illinois this year (35-33)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (52-32)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73°

Team Information
Injuries: NIU | TOL
Depth Chart: NIU | TOL
Rosters: NIU | TOL
(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Team Profile






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Northern Illinois's OC Eric Eidsness
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Williams (Tr)13974945.471
Antario Brown11556744.949
Brock Lampe71412.03
Kanon Woodill1000.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Antario Brown8204125.583
Gavin Williams (Tr)2514015.635
Brock Lampe991110.121
Tristen Tewes64116.812

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster
Northern Illinois's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown732012
Jaden Dolphin613002
Nate Valcarcel532248
Devin Lafayette506031
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devonte O'Malley3812941
George Gumbs369642
Nate Valcarcel532248
Cade Haberman276201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nate Valcarcel532248
Jashon Prophete432004
Javaughn Byrd390003

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquez Stuart6123023.826
Peny Boone3420826.159
Dequan Finn216623.139
Jerjuan Newton1101.01
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton649491114.864
Anthony Torres27362813.478
Jacquez Stuart15170011.334
Justin Stephens117017.017

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxen Hook1082004
Daniel Bolden918320
Jackson Barrow649202
Cavon Butler456310
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Andre Ragin428551
Darius Alexander358425
Martez Poynter257400
Daniel Bolden918320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Alexander358425
Maxen Hook1082004
Jackson Barrow649202