Toledo at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo   Toledo Rockets at Massachusetts Minutemen  Massachusetts logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -19 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Toledo 41 - Massachusetts: 24

 
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UMASS 3rd straight Home Game
UMASS is playing their 6th straight game
TOL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -17.5  (SP+ TOL -21.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 34 - UMASS: 16 (50)
TOL Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
TOL Travel: 570 miles
Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.045.5W 41 - 30OY
Sat 9/2 Massachusetts at Auburn+35.052.0L 14 - 59ON
Sat 9/9 Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.045.0L 28 - 41ON
Sat 9/16 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.050.0L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/23 Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.548.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/30 Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.555.5L 28 - 52ON
Sat 10/7 Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.055.5L 24 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 Massachusetts at Penn State+42.055.0L 0 - 63ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Massachusetts at Army+10.049.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 11/4 Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.557.5W 31 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts at Liberty+26.564.5L 25 - 49OY
Sat 11/25 Massachusetts vs UConn-2.551.0L 18 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%30.844%317843%2254.23.0734%13.336%34%3.9755.41.91.6
UMASS.0132%11.134%2.815031%1172.26.240%38.642%38%3.666.21.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1430.817.342.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
UMASS Defense1238.634.740.1%3.61.6 - - - - - 60%39%42%38%20%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1413.316.734.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
UMASS Offense1211.112.832.4%2.261.6152671501173.560%39%34%31%20%.01

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Massachusetts1231:5514.628%48%7.666.21.61.66.11.6127.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
UMASS Defense1260%42% - - - - .183.1770%13%1.14
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
UMASS Offense1260%34%43.3150.33.510.032.869%14%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
UMASS Defense1239%38% - - - - - - 9.291.933%28%.287%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
UMASS Offense1239%31%11.323.1116.95.110.3414.011.637%19%.16%2.1

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27  #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47  #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60  #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64  #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0  #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27   Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0   Massachusetts: -17.7




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895  #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17  #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87  #129
2023 Talent Rating: 565.65  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7  #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 34
Massachusetts 16

Projected Total Points: 50
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Toledo38Massachusetts23Toledo -17.5Massachusetts50.5Over
202310/07Massachusetts24Toledo41Toledo -19Massachusetts55.5Over
202209/10Toledo55Massachusetts10Toledo -28Toledo49.0Over
202110/02Massachusetts7Toledo45Toledo -26.5Toledo56.5Under
201510/24Massachusetts35Toledo51Toledo -9.5Toledo61.0Over
201410/25Toledo42Massachusetts35Toledo -17.5Massachusetts0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts034 Overs
Toledo631 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 32 - 41 - 21 - 2
Road Teams3 - 34 - 22 - 12 - 1

(#29) TOL at (#121) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLUMASS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #29 #121
SP+SP+ #51 #125
Perf GradeGrade #22 #132
OffenseOff #45 #97
DefenseDef #12 #135
Spec TeamsST #35 #136
TalentTal #88 #76
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #135
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #30 #129
SP+SP+ #65 #124
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
Run GameRun #58 #130
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #113
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePass #25 #130
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #114
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Massachusetts on Offense
CategoryCatUMASS OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #12
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #59 #24
SP+SP+ #99 #35
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Massachusetts Run Game
CategoryCat
UMASS OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #59 #15
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #10
Massachusetts Pass Game
CategoryCatUMASS OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #106 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #7
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Toledo 19.0 (55.5)
Toledo won at Massachusetts this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (38-23)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-24)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn20131763%26512298.4
Tucker Gleason285551%383417.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peny Boone1941400157.271
Jacquez Stuart11057465.280
Dequan Finn12356374.656
Willie Shaw III3111803.814
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton52696913.442
Junior Vandeross47664414.168
Anthony Torres26464317.839
Larry Stephens22260211.828

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Gant1148102
Daniel Bolden947133
Maxen Hook690014
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren684003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Judge Culpepper3911920
D'Andre Ragin408530
Deshawn Holt266440
Jeremiah Peters227420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinyon Mitchell4120018
Ronald Delancy III2810010
Chris McDonald340008

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)13922761%1507666.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)6210161%886638.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams2361157124.947
Gregory DeRosiers3730148.160
Anthony Simpson (Tr)119318.517
Ahmad Haston165403.47
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)57792313.971
George Johnson35421312.032
Mark Pope (Tr)33420112.754
Gino Campiotti21289413.830

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Te'Rai Powell591023
Nahji Logan593111
Gerrell Johnson512000
Billy Wooden5011671
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Billy Wooden5011671
JB Brown (Tr)385341
Derrieon Craig245211
Zukudo Igwenagu293100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Juan Lua230005
Tyler Rudolph402114
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)310014