San José State at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview

San José State Spartans at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -9 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 21 - San José State: 17

Spartans (7 - 6) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brent Brennan (28 - 45)
Avg Score : 32 - 26 (33 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Toledo -10 (SP+ TOL -6)
Projected Score: SJSU: 25 - TOL: 35 (59)
TOL Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
SJSU Travel: 2045 miles, 3 hrs behind

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SJSU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San José State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San José State at USC	+31.5	66.0	L 28 - 56	O	Y
Sun 9/3	San José State vs Oregon State	+14.0	56.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	San José State vs Cal Poly	-23.5	60.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	San José State at Toledo	+9.0	56.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San José State vs Air Force	+6.0	45.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	San José State at Boise State	+8.0	57.5	L 27 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/14	San José State at New Mexico	-6.5	55.0	W 52 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San José State vs Utah State	-4.0	65.0	W 42 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	San José State at Hawai'i	-10.5	57.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	San José State vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/18	San José State vs San Diego State	-16.5	48.5	W 24 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/25	San José State at UNLV	+3.5	58.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 12/23	San José State vs Coastal Carolina	-7.5	48.0	L 14 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#22 (.29)	45% (29)	31.8	48% (23)	3.21 (48)	184	43% (51)	219	3.73 (81)	#104 (.24)	43% (79)	25.6	45% (91)	41% (60)	3.86 (74)	49.1	0.8	1.6
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	32.3	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	20.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#71 (.18)	44% (56)		41% (98)	2.27 (133)	88	46% (28)	322	3.6 (96)	#27 (.1)	41% (57)		42% (66)	39% (47)	3.58 (44)	61.5	2.2	2.2
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Offense	13	31.8	32.7	45.5%	3.73	0.8	21	404	184	219	5.6	50%	50%	48%	43%	15%	.29
TOL Defense	14	20.3	20	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Defense	13	25.6	27.8	42.8%	3.86	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	45%	41%	15%	.24
TOL Offense	14	32.3	42.7	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San José State	13	30:35	20.8	45%	37%	5.7	49.1	0.8	1.6	4.8	1.6	3	34.5
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense	13	50% (71)	48% (23)	33	184.1	5.6	31 (17)	.24 (22)	3.21 (48)	72% (85)	10% (61)	1.11 (21)
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense	13	56% (120)	45% (91)	-	-	-	-	.25 (121)	3.47 (126)	75% (81)	9% (104)	1.03 (88)
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense	13	50% (61)	43% (51)	17.7	28.9	219.5	7.6	12.4	21 (65)	4 (2)	.34 (44)	1.7 (28)	33% (91)	38% (9)	.48 (22)	6% (59)	2 (79)
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense	13	43% (10)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (80)	1.6 (80)	31% (91)	33% (108)	.44 (119)	6% (80)	2 (62)
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -1.43 #71
San José State's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.51 #79
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
San José State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 6.50
San José State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9 #73
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #48
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -1.43 Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -1.9 Toledo: 4.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

San José State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.7
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

San José State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 35
San José State 25

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 48
San José State 19

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
San José State 26

Total Points: 58

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.7
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Toledo	21	San José State	17	Toledo -9	San José State	56.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	1	0	0 Overs
San José State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#71) SJSU at (#29) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SJSU	TOL
Power RatePwr	#71	#29
SP+SP+	#73	#51
Perf GradeGrade	#62	#22
OffenseOff	#33	#45
DefenseDef	#105	#12
Spec TeamsST	#35	#35
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

San José State Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

San José State on Offense


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#33	#12
SuccessSuc	#29	#29
ExplosiveExp	#12	#38
PPAPPA	#22	#22
PowerPwr	#42	#24
SP+SP+	#48	#35
Pts POPPO	#81	#22
HavocHav	#62	#43

San José State Run Game


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#15	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#23	#54
Run ExplRExp	#21	#64
PPAExp	#22	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#42	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#77
TackleTak	-	#10

San José State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#28	#43
PPAExp	#44	#10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#7
F7 HavocF7	#61	#73
DB HavocDB	#59	#16

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	SJSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#45	#105
SuccessSuc	#34	#79
ExplosiveExp	#39	#60
PPAPPA	#27	#104
PowerPwr	#30	#79
SP+SP+	#65	#87
Pts POPPO	#26	#74
HavocHav	#15	#102

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#131
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#91
Run ExplRExp	#38	#88
PPAExp	#41	#121
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#113
TackleTak	-	#109

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#80
PPAExp	#24	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#64
F7 HavocF7	#24	#104
DB HavocDB	#35	#80

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 64°

Rematch from Week 3
Toledo -9.0 (56.5)
Toledo won vs San José State this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat San José State in 2023 (21-17)

SJSU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chevan Cordeiro	223	363	61%	2773	20	4	7.6
Jay Butterfield (Tr)	7	11	64%	80	1	0	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kairee Robinson	169	1191	18	7.0	52
Quali Conley (Tr)	131	842	9	6.4	68
Chevan Cordeiro	81	272	3	3.4	28
Isaac Jernigan	12	86	0	7.2	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	48	728	8	15.2	58
Charles Ross	26	347	1	13.3	35
Dominick Mazotti	23	322	2	14.0	44
Sam Olson	22	310	3	14.1	56

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham	106	5	2	4	2
Jordan Pollard	79	4	0	0	0
Tre Jenkins	67	1	0	0	4
Tre Smith	67	10	7	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Tre Smith	67	10	7	4
Soane Toia	35	6	4	0
Noah Lavulo	49	7	4	5
Jay Kakiva	43	7	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jay'Vion Cole	38	2	1	10
D.J. Harvey (Tr)	28	2	0	5
Tre Jenkins	67	1	0	4

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8