San José State at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview

San José State Spartans at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -9 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 21 - San José State: 17

Spartans (7 - 6) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brent Brennan (28 - 45)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#68)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Toledo -10 (SP+ TOL -6)
Projected Score: SJSU: 23 - TOL: 33 (54)
TOL Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
SJSU Travel: 2045 miles, 3 hrs behind

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SJSU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San José State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San José State at USC	+31.5	66.0	L 28 - 56	O	Y
Sun 9/3	San José State vs Oregon State	+14.0	56.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	San José State vs Cal Poly	-23.5	60.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	San José State at Toledo	+9.0	56.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San José State vs Air Force	+6.0	45.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	San José State at Boise State	+8.0	57.5	L 27 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/14	San José State at New Mexico	-6.5	55.0	W 52 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San José State vs Utah State	-4.0	65.0	W 42 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	San José State at Hawai'i	-10.5	57.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	San José State vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/18	San José State vs San Diego State	-16.5	48.5	W 24 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/25	San José State at UNLV	+3.5	58.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 12/23	San José State vs Coastal Carolina	-7.5	48.0	L 14 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	.18	45%	28.4	48%	3.16	96	43%	272	4.25	.15	40%	27.5	40%	41%	3.42	48.5	0.8	1.8
TOL	.19	43%	28.3	44%	3	178	43%	225	4.23	.07	34%	23.2	36%	34%	3.97	55.4	1.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Offense	12	28.4	25.4	45%	4.25	0.8	20	368	96	272	3.4	38%	61%	48%	43%	19%	.18
TOL Defense	14	23.2	21.3	34.2%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	34%	18%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Defense	12	27.5	27.6	39.7%	3.42	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	41%	19%	.15
TOL Offense	14	28.3	31.2	42.8%	4.23	1.9	22	403	178	225	4.3	55%	44%	44%	43%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San José State	12	28:36	20.4	37%	47%	5.8	48.5	0.8	1.8	7	3.3	0	31.4
Toledo	14	29:31	22	41%	59%	6.7	55.4	1.9	1.6	5.5	2.2	2	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense	12	38%	48%	28.6	96.2	3.4	19	.14	3.16	67%	10%	0.82
TOL Defense	14	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.04	83%	10%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense	12	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.14	3	68%	13%	1
TOL Offense	14	55%	44%	41.4	177.8	4.3	23	.14	3	76%	10%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense	12	61%	43%	21.7	35.8	271.8	7.6	12.5	23	7	.25	1.5	30%	36%	.36	8%	1.8
TOL Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.08	1.6	37%	23%	.09	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense	12	48%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.23	1.6	29%	29%	.37	6%	2.2
TOL Offense	14	44%	43%	17.6	31.4	224.9	7.2	12.8	31	15	.35	1.7	32%	30%	.32	5%	2.2

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -1.43 #71
San José State's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.51 #79
2023 Talent Rating: 410.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
San José State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 6.50
San José State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9 #73
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #48
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -1.43 Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -1.9 Toledo: 4.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.4
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

San José State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
San José State 23

Projected Total Points: 54

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Toledo	21	San José State	17	Toledo	Toledo -9	San José State	56.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	1	0	0 Overs
San José State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#71) San José State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.43 #71
Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Defense Rating: 10.51 #79
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87
Talent Rating: 410.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 6.50 - 6.50

Team Profile

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San José State Ratings Matchup Toledo

Power #71

#29

Off #42

#30

Def #79

#24

Talent #110

#82

SP+ #73

#51

SP+ Off #48

#65

SP+ Def #87

#35

Rematch from Week 3
Toledo -9.0 (56.5)
Toledo won vs San José State this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat San José State in 2023 (21-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 64°

Team Information
Injuries: SJSU | TOL
Depth Chart: SJSU | TOL
Rosters: SJSU | TOL

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Team Profile

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San José State's OC Kevin McGiven

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Nash	2	2	100%	42	2	0	21.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Dominick Mazotti	1	3	0	3.0	3
Anthony Garcia	1	1	0	1.0	1
Nick Nash	1	-9	0	-9.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	104	1382	16	13.3	45
Justin Lockhart	53	983	5	18.5	57
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Sam Olson	13	196	2	15.1	51

View San José State's Full Roster

San José State's DC Derrick Odum

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
Tre Smith	48	7	5	2	0
Justin Eklund	15	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
Tre Smith	48	7	5	2	0
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Jairus Satele	5	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Bryun Parham	12	0	0	0	1
Elijah Wood	1	0	0	0	1

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Peny Boone	34	208	2	6.1	59
Dequan Finn	21	66	2	3.1	39
Jerjuan Newton	1	1	0	1.0	1

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34
Justin Stephens	1	17	0	17.0	17

View Toledo's Full Roster

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2
Cavon Butler	45	6	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2