Bowling Green at Kent State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes

Wednesday, November 8th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Bowling Green -10.5 (41.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Bowling Green 49 - Kent State: 19 (Mid-American)

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 24 (25 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Bowling Green -16.5 (SP+ BGSU -20.5)
Projected Score: BGSU: 29 - KENT: 13 (42)
BGSU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
BGSU Travel: 121 miles

Golden Flashes (1 - 11) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Kenni Burns (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 15 - 35 (19 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.1 - 9.9 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
KENT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Kent State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Kent State at UCF	+35.0	54.0	L 6 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Kent State at Arkansas	+38.0	57.5	L 6 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Kent State vs Central Connecticut	-21.5	46.5	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Kent State at Fresno State	+27.5	47.5	L 10 - 53	O	N
Sat 9/30	Kent State vs Miami (OH)	+14.0	51.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/7	Kent State at Ohio	+24.5	45.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kent State at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	40.0	L 14 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/21	Kent State vs Buffalo	+6.5	44.0	L 6 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Kent State at Akron	+4.0	39.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
Wed 11/8	Kent State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	41.5	L 19 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kent State at Ball State	+10.5	41.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kent State vs Northern Illinois	+20.5	44.5	L 27 - 37	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	26.2	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
KENT	#125 (.05)	35% (130)	14.7	32% (133)	2.84 (113)	106	40% (89)	165	3.27 (110)	#125 (.32)	45% (111)	34.6	47% (108)	44% (97)	4.88 (132)	46.2	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1
KENT	#131 (.01)	30% (134)		33% (132)	2.57 (128)	78	29% (134)	155	2.89 (130)	#133 (.35)	50% (131)		50% (123)	51% (130)	4.34 (115)	35.7	1.7	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	26.2	25	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
KENT Defense	12	34.6	28.6	45%	4.88	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	47%	44%	13%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24	23.1	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
KENT Offense	12	14.7	18.6	35.2%	3.27	1	15	270	106	165	2.9	53%	47%	32%	40%	19%	.05

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Kent State	12	28:49	15	30%	46%	5.4	46.2	1	0.8	4.1	0.9	0	28.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
KENT Defense	12	56% (124)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.24 (117)	3.23 (98)	79% (107)	7% (131)	1.08 (106)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
KENT Offense	12	53% (44)	32% (133)	36.8	105.9	2.9	8 (130)	-.03 (132)	2.84 (113)	67% (109)	12% (117)	0.91 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
KENT Defense	12	43% (14)	44% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.44 (127)	1.8 (117)	32% (73)	31% (76)	.33 (79)	6% (91)	2 (55)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
KENT Offense	12	47% (90)	40% (89)	13.3	25.5	164.5	6.5	12.3	11 (117)	6 (14)	.16 (110)	1.6 (72)	36% (122)	25% (112)	.18 (108)	7% (99)	2 (76)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -3.52 Kent State: -21.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -5.9 Kent State: -26.4

Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -21.295 #133
Kent State's Offense Rating: 9.49 #124
Kent State's Defense Rating: 19.32 #132
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Kent State's 2023 Expected Record: 2.10 - 9.90
Kent State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -26.4 #133
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #133
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.1

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 29
Kent State 13

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 22
Kent State 15

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Bowling Green 28
Kent State 20

Total Points: 48

Kent State Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.6
Defense: 34.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.6

Kent State's 2023 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Kent State	24	Bowling Green	21	Bowling Green -7.5	Kent State	47.5	Under
2024	10/19	Bowling Green	27	Kent State	6	Bowling Green -24	Kent State	54.5	Under
2023	11/08	Kent State	19	Bowling Green	49	Bowling Green -10.5	Bowling Green	41.5	Over
2022	11/09	Bowling Green	6	Kent State	40	Kent State -2.5	Kent State	55.5	Under
2021	10/02	Kent State	27	Bowling Green	20	Kent State -16.5	Bowling Green	56.0	Under
2020	11/10	Bowling Green	24	Kent State	62	Kent State -20.5	Kent State	55.0	Over
2019	09/21	Kent State	62	Bowling Green	20	Kent State -12	Kent State	61.5	Over
2018	10/30	Bowling Green	28	Kent State	35	Bowling Green -1.5	Kent State	67.5	Under
2017	10/31	Kent State	16	Bowling Green	44	Bowling Green -1	Bowling Green	48.0	Over
2016	11/15	Bowling Green	42	Kent State	7	Kent State -3	Bowling Green	54.0	Under
2015	10/24	Kent State	0	Bowling Green	48	Bowling Green -9.5	Bowling Green	59.0	Under
2014	11/12	Bowling Green	30	Kent State	20	Bowling Green -13	Kent State	0
2013	09/07	Kent State	22	Bowling Green	41	Bowling Green -8	Bowling Green	0
2012	11/17	Bowling Green	24	Kent State	31
2011	10/29	Kent State	27	Bowling Green	15
2010	10/23	Bowling Green	6	Kent State	30
2009	10/10	Kent State	35	Bowling Green	36
2008	11/01	Bowling Green	45	Kent State	30
2007	10/20	Kent State	20	Bowling Green	31
2006	09/23	Bowling Green	3	Kent State	38
2005	11/05	Kent State	14	Bowling Green	24
2003	11/15	Bowling Green	42	Kent State	33
2002	11/02	Kent State	14	Bowling Green	45
2001	10/06	Bowling Green	24	Kent State	7
2000	09/29	Kent State	11	Bowling Green	18

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kent State	10	7	4 Overs
Bowling Green	15	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 15	3 - 10	1 - 4	2 - 6
Road Teams	15 - 10	10 - 3	6 - 2	4 - 1

(#85) BGSU at (#133) KENT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	KENT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#85	#133
SP+SP+	#84	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#85	#131
OffenseOff	#107	#123
DefenseDef	#46	#129
Spec TeamsST	#59	#97
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Bowling Green Injury Report

Kent State Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	KENT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#129
SuccessSuc	#81	#111
ExplosiveExp	#25	#106
PPAPPA	#74	#125
PowerPwr	#91	#132
SP+SP+	#86	#115
Pts POPPO	#87	#132
HavocHav	#103	#122

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	KENT Def
Run GameRun	#36	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#108
Run ExplRExp	#24	#106
PPAExp	#65	#117
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#98
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#108
TackleTak	-	#118

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	KENT Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#117
PPAExp	#72	#127
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#128	#131
F7 HavocF7	#121	#131
DB HavocDB	#54	#91

Kent State on Offense


CategoryCat	KENT Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#46
SuccessSuc	#130	#63
ExplosiveExp	#83	#46
PPAPPA	#125	#44
PowerPwr	#124	#36
SP+SP+	#133	#66
Pts POPPO	#110	#62
HavocHav	#111	#41

Kent State Run Game


CategoryCat	KENT Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#132	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#133	#119
Run ExplRExp	#105	#41
PPAExp	#132	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#113	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#64	#132
TackleTak	-	#23

Kent State Pass Game


CategoryCat	KENT Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#89	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#72	#111
PPAExp	#110	#35
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#126	#27
F7 HavocF7	#117	#67
DB HavocDB	#99	#21

Program Comparison
KENT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dix Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 49° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Bowling Green 10.5 (41.5)
Bowling Green won at Kent State this year (49-19)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Kent State last year (27-6)
Bowling Green beat Kent State in 2023 (49-19)
Kent State beat Bowling Green in 2022 (40-6)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	168	277	61%	1935	12	7	7.0
Camden Orth	39	68	57%	486	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	125	762	8	6.1	54
Taron Keith	66	390	4	5.9	40
Camden Orth	67	208	5	3.1	18
Jaison Patterson	35	128	1	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	44	623	6	14.2	56
Odieu Hilaire	45	532	4	11.8	46
Taron Keith	44	457	3	10.4	58
Austin Osborne	29	302	0	10.4	42

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Joseph Sipp Jr.	73	4	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	27	11	10	5	1
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Jordan Porter	18	4	3	1	1
Dierre Kelly	20	4	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6
Jordan Oladokun	30	1	0	0	5

KENT's OC Matt Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Alaimo	79	144	55%	932	2	4	6.5
Tommy Ulatowski	60	121	50%	737	7	2	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Garcia	138	544	2	3.9	42
Jaylen Thomas	133	460	2	3.5	34
Xavier Williams	42	137	1	3.3	18
Tommy Ulatowski	47	89	1	1.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chrishon Mccray	41	610	4	14.9	42
Luke Floriea	39	414	4	10.6	43
Trell Harris	26	400	1	15.4	43
Jameel Gardner Jr.	24	298	1	12.4	50

View Kent State's Full Roster

KENT's DC David Duggan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Sheppert	75	1	0	2	7
Nick Giacolone	50	5	0	0	1
Stephen Daley	47	6	1	7	0
D.J. Miller	46	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
CJ Harris	31	6	2	0	1
Marcus Winfield	11	3	2	1	0
Macyo Williams	18	3	2	2	0
Stephen Daley	47	6	1	7	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Capone Blue	30	0	0	0	10
Bryce Sheppert	75	1	0	2	7
Alex Branch	32	2	1	0	3