Toledo at Ball State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (2:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -17.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 13 - Ball State: 6 (Mid-American)

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
Wind: 13.7 MPH
TOL 2nd straight Road Game
BALL is playing their 7th straight game
TOL is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -15 (SP+ TOL -19)
Projected Score: TOL: 34 - BALL: 19 (58)
TOL Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
TOL Travel: 137 miles

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (29 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.19	43%	28.3	44%	3	178	43%	225	4.23	.07	34%	23.2	36%	34%	3.97	55.4	1.9	1.6
BALL	.11	40%	25.3	41%	3.22	158	40%	228	3.7	.16	43%	40.1	45%	41%	3.56	57.6	1.8	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	28.3	22.2	42.8%	4.23	1.9	22	403	178	225	4.3	55%	44%	44%	43%	16%	.19
BALL Defense	12	40.1	33.4	43%	3.56	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	45%	41%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	23.2	21.3	34.2%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	34%	18%	.07
BALL Offense	12	25.3	28.6	40.1%	3.7	1.8	21	386	158	228	4.5	43%	56%	41%	40%	19%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	29:31	22	41%	59%	6.7	55.4	1.9	1.6	5.5	2.2	2	29.6
Ball State	12	27:59	21.3	36%	32%	6.1	57.6	1.8	1.4	5.4	2.1	0	29.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	55%	44%	41.4	177.8	4.3	23	.14	3	76%	10%	0.92
BALL Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.26	71%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.04	83%	10%	1.08
BALL Offense	12	43%	41%	34.8	157.8	4.5	14	.09	3.22	76%	7%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	44%	43%	17.6	31.4	224.9	7.2	12.8	31	15	.35	1.7	32%	30%	.32	5%	2.2
BALL Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.23	1.4	32%	30%	.28	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.08	1.6	37%	23%	.09	8%	2
BALL Offense	12	56%	40%	23.9	40.1	228.2	5.7	9.5	18	14	.18	1.3	30%	31%	.26	12%	1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27 Ball State: -9.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0 Ball State: -14.9

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -9.17 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 526.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 34
Ball State 19

Projected Total Points: 58

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Ball State	6	Toledo	13	Toledo	Toledo -17.5	Ball State	48.5	Under
2022	11/08	Toledo	28	Ball State	21	Toledo	Toledo -11	Ball State	50.0	Under
2021	09/25	Ball State	12	Toledo	22	Toledo	Toledo -4.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2020	11/28	Toledo	24	Ball State	27	Ball State	Toledo -9.5	Ball State	67.0	Under
2019	10/19	Ball State	52	Toledo	14	Ball State	Ball State -3.5	Ball State	58.5	Over
2018	10/31	Toledo	45	Ball State	13	Toledo	Toledo -19.5	Toledo	64.0	Under
2017	10/26	Ball State	17	Toledo	58	Toledo	Toledo -26.5	Toledo	55.5	Over
2016	11/16	Toledo	37	Ball State	19	Toledo	Toledo -19	Ball State	68.5	Under
2015	10/03	Ball State	10	Toledo	24	Toledo	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2014	09/20	Toledo	34	Ball State	23	Toledo	Toledo -9	Toledo	0
2013	09/28	Ball State	31	Toledo	24	Ball State	Ball State -1	Ball State	0
2012	11/06	Toledo	27	Ball State	34	Ball State
2011	11/25	Ball State	28	Toledo	45	Toledo
2010	10/23	Toledo	31	Ball State	24	Toledo
2009	10/03	Ball State	30	Toledo	37	Toledo
2008	10/04	Toledo	0	Ball State	31	Ball State
2007	11/13	Ball State	41	Toledo	20	Ball State
2006	11/14	Toledo	17	Ball State	20	Ball State
2005	10/15	Ball State	14	Toledo	34	Toledo
2004	10/02	Toledo	52	Ball State	14	Toledo
2003	10/25	Ball State	38	Toledo	14	Ball State
2002	10/12	Toledo	37	Ball State	17	Toledo
2001	10/20	Ball State	24	Toledo	20	Ball State
2000	11/10	Toledo	31	Ball State	3	Toledo

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	9	6	2 Overs
Toledo	15	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	5 - 6	4 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 13	6 - 5	3 - 1	3 - 4

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Team Profile

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Toledo Ratings Matchup Ball State

Power #29

#112

Off #30

#98

Def #24

#87

Talent #82

#84

SP+ #51

#116

SP+ Off #65

#131

SP+ Def #35

#61

Rematch from Week 7
Toledo 17.5 (48.5)
Toledo won at Ball State this year (13-6)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Ball State in 2023 (13-6)
Toledo beat Ball State in 2022 (28-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 54° - Wind: 14 mph
Rain: 0.028

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | BALL
Depth Chart: TOL | BALL
Rosters: TOL | BALL

(#112) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.17 #112
Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61
Talent Rating: 526.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60

Team Profile

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Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Peny Boone	34	208	2	6.1	59
Dequan Finn	21	66	2	3.1	39
Jerjuan Newton	1	1	0	1.0	1

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34
Justin Stephens	1	17	0	17.0	17

View Toledo's Full Roster

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2
Cavon Butler	45	6	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Ball State's OC Jared Elliott

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Lucas Borrow	1	19	0	19.0	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	20	137	2	6.9	21
Brady Hunt	2	22	0	11.0	11

View Ball State's Full Roster

Ball State's DC Tyler Stockton

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Jordan Riley-Scott	42	2	1	1	3
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Nathan Reichert	32	2	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Jordan Riley-Scott	42	2	1	1	3
Nathan Reichert	32	2	1	0	0
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Jordan Riley-Scott	42	2	1	1	3