Buffalo at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo   Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets  Toledo logo
Tuesday, October 31st 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -14 (47.0) (-700)  Open: -14.0 | 52.5
Toledo 31 - Buffalo: 13  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Maurice Linguist (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BUFF coming off BYE
TOL coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -21  (SP+ TOL -19)
Projected Score: BUFF: 13 - TOL: 34 (48)
TOL Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
BUFF Travel: 264 miles
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Buffalo at Wisconsin+29.052.5L 17 - 38OY
Sat 9/9 Buffalo vs Fordham-23.555.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/16 Buffalo vs Liberty+2.554.0L 27 - 55ON
Sat 9/23 Buffalo at Louisiana+10.557.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 9/30 Buffalo at Akron+3.053.0W 13 - 10UY
Sat 10/7 Buffalo vs Central Michigan+2.551.5W 37 - 13UY
Sat 10/14 Buffalo vs Bowling Green-3.044.5L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/21 Buffalo at Kent State-6.544.0W 24 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Buffalo at Toledo+14.047.0L 13 - 31UN
Tue 11/7 Buffalo vs Ohio+9.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Wed 11/15 Buffalo at Miami (OH)+7.536.5L 10 - 23UN
Tue 11/21 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-6.538.5L 11 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF.1744%2444%2.9214044%2154.06.2741%23.540%44%3.7943.51.32
TOL.1943%30.844%317843%2254.23.0734%13.336%34%3.9755.41.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense132423.243.6%4.061.3213551402153.651%47%44%44%22%.17
TOL Defense1413.37.734.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1323.522.641.3%3.792 - - - - - 52%48%40%44%25%.27
TOL Offense1430.845.842.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1331:1720.641%61%4.743.51.3261.8129.5
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1351%44%39.41403.622.062.9271%12%0.83
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1352%40% - - - - .222.8968%15%1.33
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1347%44%19.232.22156.711.2158.331.631%35%.359%2
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1348%44% - - - - - - 11.361.734%31%.410%2.1
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.23  #120
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.90  #125
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.32  #50
2023 Talent Rating: 296.09  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Buffalo's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Buffalo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #117
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #125
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -10.23   Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -15.1   Toledo: 4.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135  #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47  #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60  #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64  #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0  #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 34
Buffalo 13

Projected Total Points: 48
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Buffalo30Toledo15Toledo -10.5Buffalo44.5Over
202310/31Toledo31Buffalo13Toledo -14Toledo47.0Under
202210/22Buffalo34Toledo27Toledo -7.0Buffalo56.0Over
201911/20Buffalo49Toledo30Buffalo -9.5Buffalo55.0Over
201810/20Toledo17Buffalo31Toledo -3Buffalo63.0Under
201311/12Toledo51Buffalo41Toledo -3.5Toledo0
201210/27Buffalo20Toledo25
200710/13Buffalo43Toledo33
200510/22Toledo38Buffalo15
200311/01Toledo56Buffalo29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo523 Overs
Buffalo542 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 25 - 13 - 12 - 0
Road Teams2 - 81 - 50 - 21 - 3

(#120) BUFF at (#29) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #120 #29
SP+SP+ #117 #51
Perf GradeGrade #114 #22
OffenseOff #130 #45
DefenseDef #52 #12
Spec TeamsST #22 #35
TalentTal #131 #88
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Buffalo on Offense
CategoryCat
BUFF OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #130 #12
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #125 #24
SP+SP+ #125 #35
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Buffalo Run Game
CategoryCat
BUFF OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #90 #15
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #128 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #10
Buffalo Pass Game
CategoryCat
BUFF OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #118 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #89 #7
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCatTOL OffBUFF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #52
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #30 #50
SP+SP+ #65 #87
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #58 #44
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #121
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCatTOL OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #25 #86
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #41 #84
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Toledo -14.0 (47.0)
Toledo won vs Buffalo this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Toledo in 2024 (30-15)
Toledo beat Buffalo in 2023 (31-13)

  
BUFF's OC DJ Mangas (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cole Snyder20337255%21091395.7
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)82138%87124.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ron Cook Jr.14860964.136
Michael Washington9036224.049
Jacqez Barksdale5224824.839
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)5121434.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marlyn Johnson40495412.480
Darrell Harding Jr.23451319.652
Boobie Curry29303110.448
Cole Harrity3529438.429

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Robert Wright (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joe Andreessen (Tr)8211122
Devin Grant782003
Khalil Murdock558220
Marcus Fuqua513011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Michel4510414
George Wolo236431
Khalil Murdock558220
Jaylon Bass122211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Oliver171005
Max Michel4510414
Devin Grant782003

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn20131763%26512298.4
Tucker Gleason285551%383417.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peny Boone1941400157.271
Jacquez Stuart11057465.280
Dequan Finn12356374.656
Willie Shaw III3111803.814
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton52696913.442
Junior Vandeross47664414.168
Anthony Torres26464317.839
Larry Stephens22260211.828

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Gant1148102
Daniel Bolden947133
Maxen Hook690014
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren684003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Judge Culpepper3911920
D'Andre Ragin408530
Deshawn Holt266440
Jeremiah Peters227420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinyon Mitchell4120018
Ronald Delancy III2810010
Chris McDonald340008