Western Michigan at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview

Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (1:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -21.5 (52.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 49 - Western Michigan: 31 (Mid-American)

Broncos (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WMU 3rd straight Road Game
TOL 3rd straight Home Game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -20 (SP+ TOL -20)
Projected Score: WMU: 17 - TOL: 37 (54)
TOL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
WMU Travel: 111 miles

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WMU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Western Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)	-14.0	58.0	W 35 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Michigan at Syracuse	+24.5	56.5	L 7 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/16	Western Michigan at Iowa	+28.5	43.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Michigan at Toledo	+21.5	52.5	L 31 - 49	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Western Michigan vs Ball State	-1.5	50.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Western Michigan at Mississippi State	+21.5	54.5	L 28 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)	+7.5	46.0	L 21 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/21	Western Michigan at Ohio	+16.5	52.0	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	50.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7	Western Michigan vs Central Michigan	-3.5	57.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Western Michigan at Northern Illinois	+4.5	55.5	L 0 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/21	Western Michigan vs Bowling Green	+2.0	54.5	L 10 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#85 (.16)	40% (90)	23.7	41% (87)	3.09 (71)	153	40% (87)	211	3.89 (72)	#92 (.22)	44% (101)	31.8	46% (99)	44% (99)	4.15 (105)	62.3	1.1	1.5
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	32.3	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	20.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#43 (.24)	45% (33)		45% (59)	3.05 (62)	184	46% (27)	187	4.11 (49)	#122 (.29)	49% (128)		48% (115)	51% (132)	4.38 (119)	39.2	1	1.6
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Offense	12	23.7	19.7	40.3%	3.89	1.1	20	365	153	211	3.8	54%	45%	41%	40%	16%	.16
TOL Defense	14	20.3	20	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Defense	12	31.8	34.9	44.3%	4.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	46%	44%	19%	.22
TOL Offense	14	32.3	42.7	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Michigan	12	29:55	19.6	36%	49%	7.1	62.3	1.1	1.5	5.2	2	0	28.3
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Offense	12	54% (38)	41% (87)	39.9	153.3	3.8	21 (54)	.15 (73)	3.09 (71)	75% (58)	10% (66)	1 (65)
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Defense	12	50% (74)	46% (99)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.48 (127)	81% (112)	11% (44)	0.95 (40)
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Offense	12	45% (98)	40% (87)	20.6	32.8	211.2	6.5	10.3	13 (111)	9 (40)	.2 (96)	1.5 (105)	30% (29)	25% (113)	.25 (93)	6% (88)	2 (96)
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Defense	12	48% (47)	44% (99)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.33 (104)	1.6 (78)	31% (94)	30% (71)	.23 (29)	9% (7)	1.9 (31)
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -8.28 #110
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.77 #73
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Western Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Western Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #120
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -8.28 Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -15.9 Toledo: 4.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.9

Western Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 37
Western Michigan 17

Total Points: 54

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.7
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Toledo	49	Western Michigan	31	Toledo	Toledo -21.5	Western Michigan	52.5	Over
2022	11/25	Western Michigan	20	Toledo	14	Western Michigan	Toledo -8.5	Western Michigan	50.5	Under
2021	10/23	Toledo	34	Western Michigan	15	Toledo	Western Michigan -1.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2020	11/11	Western Michigan	41	Toledo	38	Western Michigan	Western Michigan -1.5	Western Michigan	58.5	Over
2019	10/05	Toledo	31	Western Michigan	24	Toledo	Toledo -1.5	Toledo	74.0	Under
2018	10/25	Western Michigan	24	Toledo	51	Toledo	Western Michigan -4	Toledo	69.0	Over
2017	11/24	Toledo	37	Western Michigan	10	Toledo	Toledo -12	Toledo	62.0	Under
2016	11/25	Western Michigan	55	Toledo	35	Western Michigan	Western Michigan -9.5	Western Michigan	71.5	Over
2015	11/27	Toledo	30	Western Michigan	35	Western Michigan	Toledo -7	Western Michigan	58.0	Over
2014	10/04	Western Michigan	19	Toledo	20	Toledo	Toledo -10	Western Michigan	0
2013	10/05	Toledo	47	Western Michigan	20	Toledo	Toledo -19	Toledo	0
2012	09/29	Western Michigan	17	Toledo	37	Toledo
2011	11/08	Toledo	66	Western Michigan	63	Toledo
2010	09/18	Western Michigan	24	Toledo	37	Toledo
2009	10/10	Toledo	26	Western Michigan	58	Western Michigan
2008	11/15	Western Michigan	27	Toledo	17	Western Michigan
2007	09/29	Toledo	28	Western Michigan	42	Western Michigan
2006	09/09	Western Michigan	31	Toledo	10	Western Michigan
2005	09/10	Toledo	56	Western Michigan	23	Toledo
2004	10/09	Western Michigan	33	Toledo	59	Toledo
2003	11/22	Toledo	34	Western Michigan	17	Toledo
2001	11/06	Toledo	41	Western Michigan	35	Toledo
2000	09/22	Western Michigan	21	Toledo	14	Western Michigan

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	14	5	5 Overs
Western Michigan	9	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 8	8 - 3	5 - 3	3 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 15	3 - 8	0 - 3	3 - 5

(#110) Western Michigan Info
Power Rating: -8.28 #110
Offense Rating: 15.77 #73
Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #120
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30

Western Michigan has lost 2 straight
Western Michigan has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 6 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Western Michigan Highlights
Western Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#110)

Western Michigan Secondary is very good (#108)
Western Michigan has a great TO Margin (#11)

Western Michigan Deficiencies
Western Michigan Commits a Lot of Penalties (#91)
Western Michigan offense is not Explosive (#81)
Western Michigan Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Western Michigan has a bad defense (#120)
Western Michigan Does Not Stuff Runs (#72)
Western Michigan has a bad defensive line (#124)
Western Michigan has a bad red zone defense (#119)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	TOL	WMU
OverallOver	#17	#90
OffenseOff	#42	#87
DefenseDef	#9	#82
Special TeamsST	#32	#84
PassingPass	#21	#87
RushingRush	#41	#96
Run BlockRBLK	#83	#12
Pass BlockPBLK	#36	#33
Route RunningWR Rt	#37	#95
TacklingTkl	#9	#57
Run DefenseR Def	#13	#97
Pass Rush DefPRush	#6	#86
Coverage DefCov	#9	#53

Rematch from Week 4
Toledo -21.5 (52.5)
Toledo won vs Western Michigan this year (49-31)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Western Michigan in 2023 (49-31)
Western Michigan beat Toledo in 2022 (20-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: WMU | TOL
Depth Chart: WMU | TOL
Rosters: WMU | TOL

(#29) Toledo Info
Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Toledo has won 2 straight
Toledo has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Toledo Highlights
Toledo is Undefeated at Home

Toledo has Really Good Running Game (#28)
Toledo has a top Offensive Line (#91)
Toledo offense is good in red zone (#28)
Toledo Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Toledo has a really good defense (#59)
Toledo defense is really good in red zone (#57)
Toledo has a good pass defense (#7)
Toledo Secondary is very good (#73)

Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Toledo Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)

Western Michigan's OC Billy Cosh

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hayden Wolff (Tr)	148	226	66%	1505	8	5	6.7
Treyson Bourguet	57	103	55%	713	4	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Buckley	189	997	10	5.3	75
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	123	470	5	3.8	19
C.J. Hester	29	124	2	4.3	29
Treyson Bourguet	36	65	0	1.8	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenneth Womack	76	691	1	9.1	34
Leroy Thomas	36	401	2	11.1	41
Anthony Sambucci	21	318	5	15.1	64
Blake Bosma	19	317	2	16.7	58

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

Western Michigan's DC Lou Esposito

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tate Hallock (Tr)	75	2	0	0	4
Aaron Wofford	72	1	0	0	5
Damari Roberson	68	2	1	1	6
Jacob Wahlberg	65	7	2	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marshawn Kneeland	57	8	5	8	0
Donald Willis (Tr)	40	7	4	2	2
Mason Nelson	32	5	3	1	0
Boone Bonnema	18	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bilhal Kone	42	2	0	0	8
Damari Roberson	68	2	1	1	6
Aaron Wofford	72	1	0	0	5

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8