Western Michigan at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview
Western Michigan logo   Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets  Toledo logo
Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (1:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -21.5 (52.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Toledo 49 - Western Michigan: 31  (Mid-American)

 
Broncos (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
WMU 3rd straight Road Game
TOL 3rd straight Home Game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -20  (SP+ TOL -20)
Projected Score: WMU: 14 - TOL: 34 (49)
TOL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
WMU Travel: 111 miles
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Western Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Western Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-14.058.0W 35 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 Western Michigan at Syracuse+24.556.5L 7 - 48UN
Sat 9/16 Western Michigan at Iowa+28.543.5L 10 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Western Michigan at Toledo+21.552.5L 31 - 49OY
Sat 9/30 Western Michigan vs Ball State-1.550.0W 42 - 24OY
Sat 10/7 Western Michigan at Mississippi State+21.554.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)+7.546.0L 21 - 34ON
Sat 10/21 Western Michigan at Ohio+16.552.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/28 Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-3.050.0W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7 Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-3.557.5W 38 - 28OY
Tue 11/14 Western Michigan at Northern Illinois+4.555.5L 0 - 24UN
Tue 11/21 Western Michigan vs Bowling Green+2.054.5L 10 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU.0634%24.934%2.8713635%1662.79.1944%17.447%42%3.3862.91.82.3
TOL.1943%30.844%317843%2254.23.0734%13.336%34%3.9755.41.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Offense1224.918.334.1%2.791.8173021361663.552%46%34%35%23%.06
TOL Defense1413.37.734.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Defense1217.421.743.8%3.382.3 - - - - - 52%47%47%42%21%.19
TOL Offense1430.845.842.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Michigan1230:2516.631%48%6.762.91.82.36.72.6328.7
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Offense1252%34%38.8136.33.514.032.8768%15%1.02
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Defense1252%47% - - - - .153.1379%14%0.87
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Offense1246%35%13.927.9165.75.911.91013.181.739%23%.259%2.3
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Defense1247%42% - - - - - - 11.271.731%31%.267%2
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -8.28  #110
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.77  #73
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 13.36  #105
2023 Talent Rating: 401.82  #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Western Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Western Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9  #120
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #111
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #106

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -8.28   Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -15.9   Toledo: 4.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135  #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47  #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60  #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64  #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0  #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 34
Western Michigan 14

Projected Total Points: 49
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Michigan14Toledo13Toledo -13.5Western Michigan48.5Under
202309/23Toledo49Western Michigan31Toledo -21.5Western Michigan52.5Over
202211/25Western Michigan20Toledo14Toledo -8.5Western Michigan50.5Under
202110/23Toledo34Western Michigan15Western Michigan -1.5Toledo54.5Under
202011/11Western Michigan41Toledo38Western Michigan -1.5Western Michigan58.5Over
201910/05Toledo31Western Michigan24Toledo -1.5Toledo74.0Under
201810/25Western Michigan24Toledo51Western Michigan -4Toledo69.0Over
201711/24Toledo37Western Michigan10Toledo -12Toledo62.0Under
201611/25Western Michigan55Toledo35Western Michigan -9.5Western Michigan71.5Over
201511/27Toledo30Western Michigan35Toledo -7Western Michigan58.0Over
201410/04Western Michigan19Toledo20Toledo -10Western Michigan0
201310/05Toledo47Western Michigan20Toledo -19Toledo0
201209/29Western Michigan17Toledo37
201111/08Toledo66Western Michigan63
201009/18Western Michigan24Toledo37
200910/10Toledo26Western Michigan58
200811/15Western Michigan27Toledo17
200709/29Toledo28Western Michigan42
200609/09Western Michigan31Toledo10
200509/10Toledo56Western Michigan23
200410/09Western Michigan33Toledo59
200311/22Toledo34Western Michigan17
200111/06Toledo41Western Michigan35
200009/22Western Michigan21Toledo14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo1455 Overs
Western Michigan1075 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 89 - 35 - 34 - 0
Road Teams8 - 163 - 90 - 43 - 5

(#110) WMU at (#29) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWMUTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #110 #29
SP+SP+ #120 #51
Perf GradeGrade #108 #22
OffenseOff #103 #45
DefenseDef #107 #12
Spec TeamsST #106 #35
TalentTal #112 #88
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Western Michigan on Offense
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #103 #12
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #73 #24
SP+SP+ #111 #35
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Western Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #131 #15
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #10
Western Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #102 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #7
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCatTOL OffWMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #107
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #30 #105
SP+SP+ #65 #106
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Run GameRun #58 #114
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #66
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCatTOL OffWMU Def
Pass GamePass #25 #67
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #41 #116
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

WMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Toledo -21.5 (52.5)
Toledo won vs Western Michigan this year (49-31)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Toledo last year (14-13)
Toledo beat Western Michigan in 2023 (49-31)

  
WMU's OC Billy Cosh (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hayden Wolff (Tr)14822666%1505856.7
Treyson Bourguet5710355%713416.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Buckley189997105.375
Zahir Abdus-Salaam12347053.819
C.J. Hester2912424.329
Treyson Bourguet366501.829
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenneth Womack7669119.134
Leroy Thomas36401211.141
Anthony Sambucci21318515.164
Blake Bosma19317216.758

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Lou Esposito (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tate Hallock (Tr)752004
Aaron Wofford721005
Damari Roberson682116
Jacob Wahlberg657204
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marshawn Kneeland578580
Donald Willis (Tr)407422
Mason Nelson325310
Boone Bonnema184320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bilhal Kone422008
Damari Roberson682116
Aaron Wofford721005

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn20131763%26512298.4
Tucker Gleason285551%383417.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peny Boone1941400157.271
Jacquez Stuart11057465.280
Dequan Finn12356374.656
Willie Shaw III3111803.814
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton52696913.442
Junior Vandeross47664414.168
Anthony Torres26464317.839
Larry Stephens22260211.828

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Gant1148102
Daniel Bolden947133
Maxen Hook690014
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren684003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Judge Culpepper3911920
D'Andre Ragin408530
Deshawn Holt266440
Jeremiah Peters227420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinyon Mitchell4120018
Ronald Delancy III2810010
Chris McDonald340008