Bowling Green at Western Michigan - 2023 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos

Tuesday, November 21st 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Bowling Green -2 (54.5) (-142) Open: -2.0 | 54.5
Bowling Green 34 - Western Michigan: 10 (Mid-American)

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 24 (25 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Bowling Green -5 (SP+ BGSU -10)
Projected Score: BGSU: 30 - WMU: 25 (55)
BGSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
BGSU Travel: 120 miles

Broncos (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
WMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Western Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Western Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)	-14.0	58.0	W 35 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Michigan at Syracuse	+24.5	56.5	L 7 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/16	Western Michigan at Iowa	+28.5	43.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Michigan at Toledo	+21.5	52.5	L 31 - 49	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Western Michigan vs Ball State	-1.5	50.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Western Michigan at Mississippi State	+21.5	54.5	L 28 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)	+7.5	46.0	L 21 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/21	Western Michigan at Ohio	+16.5	52.0	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	50.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7	Western Michigan vs Central Michigan	-3.5	57.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Western Michigan at Northern Illinois	+4.5	55.5	L 0 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/21	Western Michigan vs Bowling Green	+2.0	54.5	L 10 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	26.2	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
WMU	#85 (.16)	40% (90)	23.7	41% (87)	3.09 (71)	153	40% (87)	211	3.89 (72)	#92 (.22)	44% (101)	31.8	46% (99)	44% (99)	4.15 (105)	62.3	1.1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1
WMU	#43 (.24)	45% (33)		45% (59)	3.05 (62)	184	46% (27)	187	4.11 (49)	#122 (.29)	49% (128)		48% (115)	51% (132)	4.38 (119)	39.2	1	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	26.2	25	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
WMU Defense	12	31.8	27.4	44.3%	4.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	46%	44%	19%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24	23.1	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
WMU Offense	12	23.7	29.2	40.3%	3.89	1.1	20	365	153	211	3.8	54%	45%	41%	40%	16%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Western Michigan	12	29:55	19.6	36%	49%	7.1	62.3	1.1	1.5	5.2	2	0	28.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
WMU Defense	12	50% (74)	46% (99)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.48 (127)	81% (112)	11% (44)	0.95 (40)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
WMU Offense	12	54% (38)	41% (87)	39.9	153.3	3.8	21 (54)	.15 (73)	3.09 (71)	75% (58)	10% (66)	1 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
WMU Defense	12	48% (47)	44% (99)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.33 (104)	1.6 (78)	31% (94)	30% (71)	.23 (29)	9% (7)	1.9 (31)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
WMU Offense	12	45% (98)	40% (87)	20.6	32.8	211.2	6.5	10.3	13 (111)	9 (40)	.2 (96)	1.5 (105)	30% (29)	25% (113)	.25 (93)	6% (88)	2 (96)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -3.52 Western Michigan: -9.59

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -5.9 Western Michigan: -15.9

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -9.59 #110
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.77 #73
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Western Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Western Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #120
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #111
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.1

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 30
Western Michigan 25

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Bowling Green 34
Western Michigan 26

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Bowling Green 28
Western Michigan 25

Total Points: 53

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.4

Western Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/12	Bowling Green	31	Western Michigan	13	Bowling Green -9.5	Bowling Green	57.5	Under
2023	11/21	Western Michigan	10	Bowling Green	34	Bowling Green -2	Bowling Green	54.5	Under
2022	11/02	Bowling Green	13	Western Michigan	9	Bowling Green -5	Western Michigan	48.0	Under
2019	10/26	Western Michigan	49	Bowling Green	10	Western Michigan -26.5	Western Michigan	65.5	Under
2018	10/13	Bowling Green	35	Western Michigan	42	Western Michigan -14.5	Bowling Green	68.5	Over
2015	11/11	Western Michigan	27	Bowling Green	41	Bowling Green -4.5	Bowling Green	72.0	Under
2014	10/18	Bowling Green	14	Western Michigan	26	Bowling Green -2.5	Western Michigan	0
2011	10/08	Western Michigan	45	Bowling Green	21
2010	11/26	Bowling Green	7	Western Michigan	41
2005	10/22	Bowling Green	14	Western Michigan	45
2004	11/06	Bowling Green	52	Western Michigan	0
2003	10/11	Western Michigan	21	Bowling Green	32
2002	10/19	Bowling Green	48	Western Michigan	45
2001	10/13	Western Michigan	37	Bowling Green	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Michigan	7	3	1 Overs
Bowling Green	7	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	3 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 7	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 2

(#85) BGSU at (#110) WMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	WMU
Power RatePwr	#85	#110
SP+SP+	#84	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#85	#108
OffenseOff	#107	#103
DefenseDef	#46	#107
Spec TeamsST	#59	#106
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Bowling Green Injury Report

Western Michigan Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	WMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#107	#107
SuccessSuc	#81	#101
ExplosiveExp	#25	#56
PPAPPA	#74	#92
PowerPwr	#91	#105
SP+SP+	#86	#106
Pts POPPO	#87	#105
HavocHav	#103	#13

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#36	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#99
Run ExplRExp	#24	#40
PPAExp	#65	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#101
TackleTak	-	#66

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#99
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#78
PPAExp	#72	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#128	#116
F7 HavocF7	#121	#44
DB HavocDB	#54	#7

Western Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	WMU Off	BGSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#103	#46
SuccessSuc	#90	#63
ExplosiveExp	#104	#46
PPAPPA	#85	#44
PowerPwr	#73	#36
SP+SP+	#111	#66
Pts POPPO	#72	#62
HavocHav	#71	#41

Western Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	WMU Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#131	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#119
Run ExplRExp	#65	#41
PPAExp	#73	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#13	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#132
TackleTak	-	#23

Western Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	WMU Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#87	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#105	#111
PPAExp	#96	#35
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#27
F7 HavocF7	#66	#67
DB HavocDB	#88	#21

Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Bowling Green 2.0 (54.5)
Bowling Green won at Western Michigan this year (34-10)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Western Michigan last year (31-13)
Bowling Green beat Western Michigan in 2023 (34-10)
Bowling Green beat Western Michigan in 2022 (13-9)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	168	277	61%	1935	12	7	7.0
Camden Orth	39	68	57%	486	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	125	762	8	6.1	54
Taron Keith	66	390	4	5.9	40
Camden Orth	67	208	5	3.1	18
Jaison Patterson	35	128	1	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	44	623	6	14.2	56
Odieu Hilaire	45	532	4	11.8	46
Taron Keith	44	457	3	10.4	58
Austin Osborne	29	302	0	10.4	42

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Joseph Sipp Jr.	73	4	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	27	11	10	5	1
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Jordan Porter	18	4	3	1	1
Dierre Kelly	20	4	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6
Jordan Oladokun	30	1	0	0	5

WMU's OC Billy Cosh (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hayden Wolff (Tr)	148	226	66%	1505	8	5	6.7
Treyson Bourguet	57	103	55%	713	4	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Buckley	189	997	10	5.3	75
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	123	470	5	3.8	19
C.J. Hester	29	124	2	4.3	29
Treyson Bourguet	36	65	0	1.8	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenneth Womack	76	691	1	9.1	34
Leroy Thomas	36	401	2	11.1	41
Anthony Sambucci	21	318	5	15.1	64
Blake Bosma	19	317	2	16.7	58

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Lou Esposito (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tate Hallock (Tr)	75	2	0	0	4
Aaron Wofford	72	1	0	0	5
Damari Roberson	68	2	1	1	6
Jacob Wahlberg	65	7	2	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marshawn Kneeland	57	8	5	8	0
Donald Willis (Tr)	40	7	4	2	2
Mason Nelson	32	5	3	1	0
Boone Bonnema	18	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bilhal Kone	42	2	0	0	8
Damari Roberson	68	2	1	1	6
Aaron Wofford	72	1	0	0	5