Eastern Michigan at Toledo - 2023 Matchup Preview

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Toledo Rockets

Wednesday, November 8th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Toledo -19.5 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 49 - Eastern Michigan: 23 (Mid-American)

Eagles (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chris Creighton (48 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (25 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 6.2 (#62)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Home Game
EMU coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -16.5 (SP+ TOL -14)
Projected Score: EMU: 16 - TOL: 33 (49)
TOL Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
EMU Travel: 41 miles

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
EMU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Eastern Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Eastern Michigan vs Howard	-20.0	55.5	W 33 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/9	Eastern Michigan at Minnesota	+19.5	48.0	L 6 - 25	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts	-7.0	50.0	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville State	+6.5	51.0	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/30	Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan	+9.5	45.0	L 23 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Eastern Michigan vs Ball State	-2.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Eastern Michigan vs Kent State	-7.0	40.0	W 28 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois	+11.5	43.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8	Eastern Michigan at Toledo	+19.5	45.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Tue 11/14	Eastern Michigan vs Akron	-3.5	39.5	W 30 - 27	O	N
Tue 11/21	Eastern Michigan at Buffalo	+6.5	38.5	W 24 - 11	U	Y
Sat 12/23	Eastern Michigan vs South Alabama	+18.0	43.0	L 10 - 59	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Eastern Michigan's Schedule

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
EMU	.23	46%	24.1	48%	3.12	142	45%	224	4.17	.21	44%	29.8	46%	43%	4.48	73.8	1.5	1.5
TOL	.19	43%	30.8	44%	3	178	43%	225	4.23	.07	34%	13.3	36%	34%	3.97	55.4	1.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
EMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
EMU Offense	13	24.1	24.5	46.3%	4.17	1.5	21	366	142	224	3.7	53%	46%	48%	45%	18%	.23
TOL Defense	14	13.3	7.7	34.2%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	34%	18%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
EMU Defense	13	29.8	34.7	44.2%	4.48	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	46%	43%	18%	.21
TOL Offense	14	30.8	45.8	42.8%	4.23	1.9	22	403	178	225	4.3	55%	44%	44%	43%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Eastern Michigan	13	31:27	21.3	45%	46%	7.9	73.8	1.5	1.5	4.3	1.9	1	31.6
Toledo	14	29:31	22	41%	59%	6.7	55.4	1.9	1.6	5.5	2.2	2	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
EMU Offense	13	53%	48%	38.7	141.8	3.7	25	.16	3.12	83%	12%	0.89
TOL Defense	14	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.04	83%	10%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
EMU Defense	13	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.45	81%	9%	0.82
TOL Offense	14	55%	44%	41.4	177.8	4.3	23	.14	3	76%	10%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
EMU Offense	13	46%	45%	18.8	30.2	224.2	7.4	11.9	23	12	.34	1.5	29%	32%	.35	6%	2
TOL Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.08	1.6	37%	23%	.09	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
EMU Defense	13	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.32	1.6	30%	31%	.4	9%	2.1
TOL Offense	14	44%	43%	17.6	31.4	224.9	7.2	12.8	31	15	.35	1.7	32%	30%	.32	5%	2.2

Eastern Michigan's Power Ratings
Eastern Michigan's Power Rating: -7.52 #105
Eastern Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.15 #110
Eastern Michigan's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 377.07 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Eastern Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 6.80 - 6.20
Eastern Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.6 #103
Eastern Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #130
Eastern Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #53

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Eastern Michigan: -7.52 Toledo: 8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Eastern Michigan: -9.6 Toledo: 4.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.135 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 497.64 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Eastern Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

Eastern Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
Eastern Michigan 16

Projected Total Points: 49

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Eastern Michigan	28	Toledo	29	Toledo -10	Eastern Michigan	54.5	Over
2023	11/08	Toledo	49	Eastern Michigan	23	Toledo -19.5	Toledo	45.5	Over
2022	10/29	Eastern Michigan	24	Toledo	27	Toledo -4	Eastern Michigan	54.0	Under
2021	11/02	Toledo	49	Eastern Michigan	52	Toledo -9	Eastern Michigan	54.5	Over
2020	11/18	Eastern Michigan	28	Toledo	45	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	62.5	Over
2019	10/26	Toledo	37	Eastern Michigan	34	Toledo -2.5	Toledo	52.0	Over
2018	10/13	Eastern Michigan	28	Toledo	26	Toledo -2	Eastern Michigan	62.0	Under
2017	10/07	Toledo	20	Eastern Michigan	15	Toledo -13.5	Eastern Michigan	60.0	Under
2016	10/08	Eastern Michigan	20	Toledo	35	Toledo -17.5	Eastern Michigan	65.5	Under
2015	10/17	Toledo	63	Eastern Michigan	20	Toledo -28	Toledo	63.0	Over
2014	11/28	Eastern Michigan	16	Toledo	52	Toledo -21.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/02	Toledo	55	Eastern Michigan	16	Toledo -28	Toledo	0
2012	10/13	Eastern Michigan	47	Toledo	52
2011	10/08	Toledo	54	Eastern Michigan	16
2010	10/30	Eastern Michigan	7	Toledo	42
2009	11/20	Toledo	47	Eastern Michigan	21
2008	09/13	Eastern Michigan	17	Toledo	41
2007	11/03	Toledo	52	Eastern Michigan	28
2006	10/21	Eastern Michigan	17	Toledo	13
2005	10/08	Toledo	30	Eastern Michigan	3
2004	09/18	Eastern Michigan	32	Toledo	42
2003	10/11	Toledo	49	Eastern Michigan	14
2002	09/07	Eastern Michigan	13	Toledo	65
2001	11/17	Toledo	28	Eastern Michigan	7
2000	10/06	Eastern Michigan	14	Toledo	42

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	22	6	6 Overs
Eastern Michigan	3	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	8 - 4	4 - 2	4 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	4 - 8	2 - 4	2 - 4

(#105) EMU at (#29) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	EMU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#105	#29
SP+SP+	#103	#51
Perf GradeGrade	#95	#22
OffenseOff	#117	#45
DefenseDef	#48	#12
Spec TeamsST	#23	#35
TalentTal	#116	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Eastern Michigan Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Eastern Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	EMU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#117	#12
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#110	#24
SP+SP+	#130	#35
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Eastern Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	EMU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#120	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

Eastern Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	EMU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#131	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#82	#7
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	EMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#45	#48
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#30	#53
SP+SP+	#65	#53
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	EMU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#55

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	EMU Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#61
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

EMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Toledo -19.5 (45.5)
Toledo won vs Eastern Michigan this year (49-23)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Eastern Michigan in 2024 (29-28)
Toledo beat Eastern Michigan in 2023 (49-23)

EMU's OC Chris Creighton (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Smith	171	298	57%	1775	9	7	6.0
Ike Udengwu III	13	31	42%	100	0	2	3.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Samson Evans	142	635	12	4.5	61
Jaylon Jackson	136	576	2	4.2	55
Austin Smith	101	134	2	1.3	41
Cam'Ron McCoy	15	63	1	4.2	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Knue	50	479	3	9.6	39
J.B. Mitchell	35	398	1	11.4	50
Hamze Elzayat	27	360	2	13.3	50
Jaylon Jackson	24	234	2	9.8	68

View Eastern Michigan's Full Roster

EMU's DC Taver Johnson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Sparacio	139	9	3	5	3
Chase Kline	124	4	2	9	3
Quentavius Scandrett	58	0	0	0	1
Kempton Shine	57	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mikah Coleman	39	7	4	8	1
Peyton Price	48	5	4	7	0
Joseph Sparacio	139	9	3	5	3
Justin Jefferson	48	7	3	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Daiquan White	19	1	12
Kempton Shine	57	3	8
Bennett Walker	25	0	4

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn	201	317	63%	2651	22	9	8.4
Tucker Gleason	28	55	51%	383	4	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Peny Boone	194	1400	15	7.2	71
Jacquez Stuart	110	574	6	5.2	80
Dequan Finn	123	563	7	4.6	56
Willie Shaw III	31	118	0	3.8	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	52	696	9	13.4	42
Junior Vandeross	47	664	4	14.1	68
Anthony Torres	26	464	3	17.8	39
Larry Stephens	22	260	2	11.8	28

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Gant	114	8	1	0	2
Daniel Bolden	94	7	1	3	3
Maxen Hook	69	0	0	1	4
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	68	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Judge Culpepper	39	11	9	2
D'Andre Ragin	40	8	5	3
Deshawn Holt	26	6	4	4
Jeremiah Peters	22	7	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quinyon Mitchell	41	2	18
Ronald Delancy III	28	1	10
Chris McDonald	34	0	8