Bowling Green at Buffalo - 2023 Matchup Preview
Bowling Green logo   Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls  Buffalo logo
Saturday, October 14th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Buffalo -3 (44.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Bowling Green 24 - Buffalo: 14  (Mid-American)

 
Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BGSU 3rd straight Road Game
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
BUFF is playing their 7th straight game
BGSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Bowling Green -5.5  (SP+ BGSU -9)
Projected Score: BGSU: 26 - BUFF: 20 (46)
BUFF Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BGSU Travel: 272 miles
Bulls (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Maurice Linguist (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Bowling Green at Liberty+8.548.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/9 Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois-17.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/16 Bowling Green at Michigan+40.553.5L 6 - 31UY
Sat 9/23 Bowling Green vs Ohio+13.045.0L 7 - 38UN
Sat 9/30 Bowling Green at Georgia Tech+21.049.5W 38 - 27OY
Sat 10/7 Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+7.543.0L 0 - 27UN
Sat 10/14 Bowling Green at Buffalo+3.044.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/21 Bowling Green vs Akron-7.037.0W 41 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1 Bowling Green vs Ball State-4.539.5W 24 - 21ON
Wed 11/8 Bowling Green at Kent State-10.541.5W 49 - 19OY
Tue 11/14 Bowling Green vs Toledo+9.548.5L 31 - 32OY
Tue 11/21 Bowling Green at Western Michigan-2.054.5W 34 - 10UY
Tue 12/26 Bowling Green vs Minnesota+2.545.0L 24 - 30ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Buffalo at Wisconsin+29.052.5L 17 - 38OY
Sat 9/9 Buffalo vs Fordham-23.555.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/16 Buffalo vs Liberty+2.554.0L 27 - 55ON
Sat 9/23 Buffalo at Louisiana+10.557.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 9/30 Buffalo at Akron+3.053.0W 13 - 10UY
Sat 10/7 Buffalo vs Central Michigan+2.551.5W 37 - 13UY
Sat 10/14 Buffalo vs Bowling Green-3.044.5L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/21 Buffalo at Kent State-6.544.0W 24 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Buffalo at Toledo+14.047.0L 13 - 31UN
Tue 11/7 Buffalo vs Ohio+9.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Wed 11/15 Buffalo at Miami (OH)+7.536.5L 10 - 23UN
Tue 11/21 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-6.538.5L 11 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU.1539%20.540%3.029939%2362.88.1842%24.341%43%4.0868.91.81.9
BUFF.1744%2444%2.9214044%2154.06.2741%23.540%44%3.7943.51.32
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1320.52439%2.881.817334992363.144%55%40%39%24%.15
BUFF Defense1323.524.141.3%3.792 - - - - - 52%48%40%44%25%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1324.32941.9%4.081.9 - - - - - 49%50%41%43%18%.18
BUFF Offense132424.643.6%4.061.3213551402153.651%47%44%44%22%.17

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1329:0017.434%44%7.768.91.81.96.22.8430.1
Buffalo1331:1720.641%61%4.743.51.3261.8129.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1344%40%31.998.73.18.053.0279%15%0.87
BUFF Defense1352%40% - - - - .222.8968%15%1.33
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1349%41% - - - - .163.175%12%1.1
BUFF Offense1351%44%39.41403.622.062.9271%12%0.83

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1355%39%20.533.8235.5711.52511.271.735%27%.269%2
BUFF Defense1348%44% - - - - - - 11.361.734%31%.410%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1350%43% - - - - - - 10.291.632%34%.356%2.1
BUFF Offense1347%44%19.232.22156.711.2158.331.631%35%.359%2

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.52  #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75  #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57  #36
2023 Talent Rating: 397.62  #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9  #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -3.52   Buffalo: -10.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -5.9   Buffalo: -15.1




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.165  #120
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.90  #125
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.32  #50
2023 Talent Rating: 296.09  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Buffalo's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Buffalo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #117
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #125
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Bowling Green 26
Buffalo 20

Projected Total Points: 46
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Bowling Green3Buffalo28Bowling Green -2.5Buffalo44.5Under
202310/14Buffalo14Bowling Green24Buffalo -3Bowling Green44.5Under
202210/08Bowling Green7Buffalo38Buffalo -2Buffalo55.5Under
202110/30Buffalo44Bowling Green56Buffalo -13.5Bowling Green51.5Over
202011/17Bowling Green17Buffalo42Buffalo -31.5Bowling Green57.5Over
201911/29Buffalo49Bowling Green7Buffalo -28Buffalo53.5Over
201811/23Bowling Green14Buffalo44Buffalo -16Buffalo62.0Under
201711/07Buffalo38Bowling Green28Buffalo -7Buffalo61.0Over
201611/25Bowling Green27Buffalo19Bowling Green -11Buffalo60.0Under
201510/03Buffalo22Bowling Green28Bowling Green -6.5Buffalo67.5Under
201410/04Bowling Green36Buffalo35Bowling Green -5Buffalo0
201311/29Buffalo7Bowling Green24Bowling Green -3.5Bowling Green52.0Under
201211/23Bowling Green21Buffalo7
201111/25Buffalo28Bowling Green42
201010/02Bowling Green26Buffalo28
200911/03Buffalo29Bowling Green30
200811/21Bowling Green34Buffalo40
200711/17Buffalo17Bowling Green31
200609/09Bowling Green48Buffalo40
200510/15Buffalo7Bowling Green27
200109/08Bowling Green35Buffalo0
200009/22Buffalo20Bowling Green17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo984 Overs
Bowling Green1347 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 144 - 82 - 52 - 3
Road Teams14 - 88 - 43 - 25 - 2

(#85) BGSU at (#120) BUFF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBGSUBUFF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #85 #120
SP+SP+ #84 #117
Perf GradeGrade #85 #114
OffenseOff #107 #130
DefenseDef #46 #52
Spec TeamsST #59 #22
TalentTal #113 #131
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Bowling Green on Offense
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBUFF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #107 #52
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #91 #50
SP+SP+ #86 #87
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Bowling Green Run Game
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #36 #44
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #121
Bowling Green Pass Game
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #121 #86
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #128 #84
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Buffalo on Offense
CategoryCatBUFF OffBGSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #130 #46
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #125 #36
SP+SP+ #125 #66
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Buffalo Run Game
CategoryCat
BUFF OffBGSU Def
Run GameRun #90 #103
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #128 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #23
Buffalo Pass Game
CategoryCatBUFF OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePass #118 #10
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #89 #27
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Buffalo -3.0 (44.5)
Bowling Green won at Buffalo this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Bowling Green last year (28-3)
Bowling Green beat Buffalo in 2023 (24-14)

  
BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)16827761%19351277.0
Camden Orth396857%486557.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terion Stewart12576286.154
Taron Keith6639045.940
Camden Orth6720853.118
Jaison Patterson3512813.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harold Fannin44623614.256
Odieu Hilaire45532411.846
Taron Keith44457310.458
Austin Osborne29302010.442

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darren Anders (Tr)8511512
Joseph Sipp Jr.734010
Jalen Huskey521006
Davon Ferguson508316
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cashius Howell27111051
Darren Anders (Tr)8511512
Jordan Porter184311
Dierre Kelly204340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Huskey521006
Davon Ferguson508316
Jordan Oladokun301005

BUFF's OC DJ Mangas (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cole Snyder20337255%21091395.7
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)82138%87124.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ron Cook Jr.14860964.136
Michael Washington9036224.049
Jacqez Barksdale5224824.839
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)5121434.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marlyn Johnson40495412.480
Darrell Harding Jr.23451319.652
Boobie Curry29303110.448
Cole Harrity3529438.429

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Robert Wright (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joe Andreessen (Tr)8211122
Devin Grant782003
Khalil Murdock558220
Marcus Fuqua513011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Michel4510414
George Wolo236431
Khalil Murdock558220
Jaylon Bass122211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Oliver171005
Max Michel4510414
Devin Grant782003