Ball State at Bowling Green Game Matchup

Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons

Wednesday, November 1st 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Bowling Green -4.5 (39.5) (-220) Open: -6.5 | 39.5
Bowling Green 24 - Ball State: 21 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL coming off BYE
BGSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Bowling Green -9.5 (SP+ BGSU -9)
Projected Score: BALL: 19 - BGSU: 29 (58)
BGSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 123 miles

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (24 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	.11	40%	25.3	41%	3.22	158	40%	228	3.7	.16	43%	40.1	45%	41%	3.56	57.6	1.8	1.4
BGSU	.15	39%	27.1	40%	3.02	99	39%	236	2.88	.18	42%	21.6	41%	43%	4.08	68.9	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	25.3	23	40.1%	3.7	1.8	21	386	158	228	4.5	43%	56%	41%	40%	19%	.11
BGSU Defense	13	21.6	18.5	41.9%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	41%	43%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	40.1	44.9	43%	3.56	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	45%	41%	17%	.16
BGSU Offense	13	27.1	24.2	39%	2.88	1.8	17	334	99	236	3.1	44%	55%	40%	39%	24%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	27:59	21.3	36%	32%	6.1	57.6	1.8	1.4	5.4	2.1	0	29.3
Bowling Green	13	29:00	17.4	34%	44%	7.7	68.9	1.8	1.9	6.2	2.8	4	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	43%	41%	34.8	157.8	4.5	14	.09	3.22	76%	7%	0.88
BGSU Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.1	75%	12%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.26	71%	9%	0.95
BGSU Offense	13	44%	40%	31.9	98.7	3.1	8	.05	3.02	79%	15%	0.87

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	56%	40%	23.9	40.1	228.2	5.7	9.5	18	14	.18	1.3	30%	31%	.26	12%	1.9
BGSU Defense	13	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.29	1.6	32%	34%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.23	1.4	32%	30%	.28	8%	1.9
BGSU Offense	13	55%	39%	20.5	33.8	235.5	7	11.5	25	11	.27	1.7	35%	27%	.26	9%	2

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -8.44 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 526.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -8.44 Bowling Green: -2.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -14.9 Bowling Green: -5.9

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.21 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 29
Ball State 19

Projected Total Points: 58

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Ball State	13	Bowling Green	38	Bowling Green	Bowling Green -12.5	Bowling Green	54.5	Under
2023	11/01	Bowling Green	24	Ball State	21	Bowling Green	Bowling Green -4.5	Ball State	39.5	Over
2015	11/24	Ball State	10	Bowling Green	48	Bowling Green	Bowling Green -20.5	Bowling Green	74.0	Under
2014	11/28	Bowling Green	24	Ball State	41	Ball State	Bowling Green -9	Ball State	0
2009	10/17	Ball State	17	Bowling Green	31	Bowling Green
2005	09/10	Ball State	31	Bowling Green	40	Bowling Green
2004	10/16	Bowling Green	51	Ball State	13	Bowling Green
2003	11/22	Ball State	14	Bowling Green	41	Bowling Green
2002	10/26	Bowling Green	38	Ball State	20	Bowling Green

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	8	2	1 Overs
Ball State	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 6	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 3	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0

(#112) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.44 #112
Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61
Talent Rating: 526.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60

Team Profile

,
,

Ball State Ratings Matchup Bowling Green

Power #112

#85

Off #98

#91

Def #87

#36

Talent #84

#82

SP+ #116

#84

SP+ Off #131

#86

SP+ Def #61

#66

Rematch from Week 10
Bowling Green -4.5 (39.5)
Bowling Green won vs Ball State this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Ball State last year (38-13)
Bowling Green beat Ball State in 2023 (24-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 36° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: BALL | BGSU
Depth Chart: BALL | BGSU
Rosters: BALL | BGSU

(#85) Bowling Green Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.21 #85
Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40

Team Profile

,
,

Ball State's OC Jared Elliott

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Lucas Borrow	1	19	0	19.0	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	20	137	2	6.9	21
Brady Hunt	2	22	0	11.0	11

View Ball State's Full Roster

Ball State's DC Tyler Stockton

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Jordan Riley-Scott	42	2	1	1	3
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Nathan Reichert	32	2	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Jordan Riley-Scott	42	2	1	1	3
Nathan Reichert	32	2	1	0	0
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Jordan Riley-Scott	42	2	1	1	3

Bowling Green's OC Greg Nosal

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Harold Fannin	1	2	50%	9	0	0	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Harold Fannin	9	65	1	7.2	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36
Taron Keith	13	157	0	12.1	64
Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim	14	121	0	8.6	20

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

Bowling Green's DC Sammy Lawanson

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Canaan Williams	46	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0
Cashius Howell	40	9	4	8	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	40	9	4	8	7
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	0	7
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3