Florida State at Pittsburgh - 2023 Matchup Preview

Florida State Seminoles at Pittsburgh Panthers

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -21.5 (50.0) (-1600) Open: -21.5 | 51.5
Florida State 24 - Pittsburgh: 7 (ACC)

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (30 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU 2nd straight Road Game
PITT is playing their 4th straight game
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -21.5 (SP+ FSU -30.5)
Projected Score: FSU: 37 - PITT: 15 (52)
FSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 732 miles

Panthers (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (63 - 43)
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (27 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
PITT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Pittsburgh vs Wofford	-37.5	49.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati	-6.5	44.5	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/16	Pittsburgh at West Virginia	+2.5	48.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Pittsburgh vs North Carolina	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/30	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	-3.0	40.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Pittsburgh vs Louisville	+7.5	44.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Pittsburgh at Wake Forest	-3.0	45.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Pittsburgh at Notre Dame	+21.0	45.5	L 7 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/4	Pittsburgh vs Florida State	+21.5	50.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-4.5	37.5	L 13 - 28	O	N
Thu 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Boston College	-1.0	47.0	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Pittsburgh at Duke	+4.5	40.5	L 19 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	34.6	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	19.3	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2
PITT	#119 (.09)	38% (113)	20.2	41% (90)	2.86 (109)	102	35% (117)	216	3.46 (98)	#23 (.11)	39% (39)	27.3	39% (32)	41% (67)	3.41 (33)	64.4	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5
PITT	#91 (.15)	42% (85)		45% (56)	3.1 (53)	119	39% (97)	256	4.11 (49)	#35 (.12)	38% (25)		38% (20)	38% (38)	3.68 (57)	58.2	1.3	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	14	34.6	30.2	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21
PITT Defense	12	27.3	22.7	39.4%	3.41	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	39%	41%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	14	19.3	18.2	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09
PITT Offense	12	20.2	26.5	37.7%	3.46	1.8	16	318	102	216	3.4	45%	54%	41%	35%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5
Pittsburgh	12	27:36	16.3	31%	50%	7.8	64.4	1.8	1.3	6.9	2.5	2	26.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)
PITT Defense	12	58% (131)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	.03 (17)	2.91 (37)	62% (16)	12% (18)	0.98 (57)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)
PITT Offense	12	45% (100)	41% (90)	29.7	101.9	3.4	10 (124)	.06 (118)	2.86 (109)	75% (52)	11% (94)	0.89 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)
PITT Defense	12	41% (3)	41% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.27 (67)	1.7 (103)	32% (58)	30% (75)	.29 (58)	6% (85)	2.2 (111)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)
PITT Offense	12	54% (34)	35% (117)	16	30	216	7.2	13.5	17 (85)	12 (85)	.16 (109)	1.7 (36)	34% (103)	24% (122)	.17 (114)	8% (123)	2.2 (26)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 16.06 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39% #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 16.06 Pittsburgh: -1.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 23.7 Pittsburgh: -6.9

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: -1.67 #72
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 11.42 #115
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 6.46 #35
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Pittsburgh's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Pittsburgh's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.2
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.2

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 37
Pittsburgh 15

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida State 34
Pittsburgh 22

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Florida State 29
Pittsburgh 21

Total Points: 50

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Pittsburgh's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Florida State	31	Pittsburgh	34	Florida State -10.5	Pittsburgh	56.5	Over
2023	11/04	Pittsburgh	7	Florida State	24	Florida State -21.5	Pittsburgh	50.0	Under
2020	11/07	Florida State	17	Pittsburgh	41	Pittsburgh -2	Pittsburgh	52.5	Over
2013	09/02	Pittsburgh	13	Florida State	41	Florida State -10.5	Florida State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Pittsburgh	2	3	2 Overs
Florida State	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 4	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 0	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0

(#10) FSU at (#72) PITT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	PITT
Power RatePwr	#10	#72
SP+SP+	#7	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#15	#117
OffenseOff	#23	#127
DefenseDef	#16	#85
Spec TeamsST	#42	#73
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#19	#43

Florida State Injury Report

Pittsburgh Injury Report

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	PITT Def
Perf GradePerf	#23	#85
SuccessSuc	#79	#39
ExplosiveExp	#16	#74
PPAPPA	#60	#23
PowerPwr	#37	#35
SP+SP+	#16	#58
Pts POPPO	#25	#33
HavocHav	#57	#36

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#43	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#32
Run ExplRExp	#35	#57
PPAExp	#111	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#21	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#111	#16
TackleTak	-	#85

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#103
PPAExp	#46	#67
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#121
F7 HavocF7	#52	#18
DB HavocDB	#67	#85

Pittsburgh on Offense


CategoryCat	PITT Off	FSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#127	#16
SuccessSuc	#113	#9
ExplosiveExp	#66	#79
PPAPPA	#119	#13
PowerPwr	#115	#7
SP+SP+	#106	#7
Pts POPPO	#98	#47
HavocHav	#114	#7

Pittsburgh Run Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#77	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#38
Run ExplRExp	#117	#102
PPAExp	#118	#51
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#19
TackleTak	-	#32

Pittsburgh Pass Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#124	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#65
PPAExp	#109	#4
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#93	#6
F7 HavocF7	#94	#20
DB HavocDB	#123	#2

Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 63° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.004

Rematch from Week 10
Florida State 21.5 (50.0)
Florida State won at Pittsburgh this year (24-7)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (24-7)

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan Travis	207	324	64%	2745	20	2	8.5
Tate Rodemaker	32	56	57%	510	5	0	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trey Benson	156	905	14	5.8	85
Lawrance Toafili	69	463	4	6.7	73
Rodney Hill	50	190	1	3.8	19
Caziah Holmes (Tr)	29	185	2	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)	50	658	11	13.2	58
Johnny Wilson	41	617	2	15.0	44
Jaheim Bell (Tr)	39	503	2	12.9	49
Kyle Morlock (Tr)	19	255	0	13.4	63

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tatum Bethune	70	7	1	3	3
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Shyheim Brown	53	2	2	2	4
DJ Lundy	52	6	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Verse	40	12	9	7	2
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9
Braden Fiske (Tr)	42	9	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Renardo Green	43	3	1	1	12
Azareye'h Thomas	27	3	0	0	10
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9

PITT's OC Frank Cignetti Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	94	184	51%	1179	7	8	6.4
Phil Jurkovec (Tr)	57	112	51%	818	6	3	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodney Hammond Jr.	118	547	4	4.6	66
C'Bo Flemister	98	367	2	3.7	38
Daniel Carter	28	134	2	4.8	22
Kenny Johnson	10	72	0	7.2	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerrod Means	41	721	6	17.6	75
Konata Mumpfield	44	576	5	13.1	82
Gavin Bartholomew	18	326	1	18.1	60
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	28	316	0	11.3	31

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon (Tr)	105	1	0	0	1
Javon Mcintyre	85	4	0	0	7
Solomon Deshields	58	8	2	4	1
Bangally Kamara	53	7	2	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Samuel Okunlola	18	6	5	0	0
Shayne Simon	48	8	5	5	2
Dayon Hayes	45	11	4	6	4
Bam Brima	31	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
M.J. Devonshire	32	1	0	0	10
Javon Mcintyre	85	4	0	0	7
Dayon Hayes	45	11	4	6	4