Florida State at Wake Forest - 2023 Matchup Preview

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -21 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Florida State 41 - Wake Forest: 16 (ACC)

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WAKE 2nd straight Home Game
WAKE is playing their 4th straight game
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -25 (SP+ FSU -31)
Projected Score: FSU: 38 - WAKE: 13 (52)
FSU Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 458 miles

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dave Clawson (62 - 53)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
WAKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Wake Forest's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Wake Forest vs Elon	-33.5	53.5	W 37 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/9	Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt	-9.5	55.0	W 36 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Wake Forest at Old Dominion	-13.5	60.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech	-3.5	58.5	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Wake Forest at Clemson	+21.0	53.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Wake Forest at Virginia Tech	+1.5	48.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/21	Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	45.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Wake Forest vs Florida State	+21.0	53.5	L 16 - 41	O	N
Thu 11/2	Wake Forest at Duke	+6.5	41.0	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Wake Forest vs NC State	-0.5	42.5	L 6 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/18	Wake Forest at Notre Dame	+22.5	47.5	L 7 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/25	Wake Forest at Syracuse	+3.0	43.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	.36	49%	33	52%	3.33	214	46%	270	4.32	.15	41%	22	44%	38%	4.08	57.9	1.1	1.4
WAKE	.24	47%	28.1	44%	2.97	132	51%	312	4.73	.2	43%	22.1	44%	43%	3.81	40.8	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	13	33	18.6	49%	4.32	1.1	24	484	214	270	5.5	51%	48%	52%	46%	15%	.36
WAKE Defense	13	22.1	17.3	43.2%	3.81	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	44%	43%	17%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	13	22	30.2	41.4%	4.08	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	17%	.15
WAKE Offense	13	28.1	28.3	47.1%	4.73	1.5	25	444	132	312	3.4	45%	54%	44%	51%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	13	31:01	24.2	51%	35%	6.6	57.9	1.1	1.4	6	2.9	1	33.2
Wake Forest	13	28:27	25.2	46%	50%	4.8	40.8	1.5	1.5	5.9	2.2	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	13	51%	52%	39.2	214.1	5.5	33	.33	3.33	65%	10%	1.11
WAKE Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.98	77%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	73%	11%	0.9
WAKE Offense	13	45%	44%	38.6	131.6	3.4	17	.03	2.97	73%	8%	0.72

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	13	48%	46%	19.2	30.4	270.2	8.9	14.1	28	7	.41	1.7	29%	39%	.51	5%	2.2
WAKE Defense	13	53%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.29	1.7	35%	34%	.45	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.17	1.6	34%	28%	.3	6%	2.1
WAKE Offense	13	54%	51%	23.2	36.5	311.9	8.6	13.4	43	13	.45	1.6	30%	37%	.43	7%	2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 16.06 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 765.33 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 39% #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 16.06 Wake Forest: -4.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 23.7 Wake Forest: -7.5

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -4.95 #103
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 9.55 #123
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 10.54 #80
2023 Talent Rating: 603.68 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Wake Forest's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Wake Forest's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #101
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 38
Wake Forest 13

Projected Total Points: 52

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Florida State	42	Wake Forest	7	Florida State -12.5	Florida State	50.5	Under
2023	10/28	Wake Forest	16	Florida State	41	Florida State -21	Florida State	53.5	Over
2022	10/01	Florida State	21	Wake Forest	31	Florida State -6	Wake Forest	67.0	Under
2021	09/18	Wake Forest	35	Florida State	14	Wake Forest -4.5	Wake Forest	63.0	Under
2019	10/19	Wake Forest	22	Florida State	20	Florida State -3	Wake Forest	69.0	Under
2018	10/20	Florida State	38	Wake Forest	17	Florida State -10.5	Florida State	57.5	Under
2017	09/30	Wake Forest	19	Florida State	26	Florida State -7.5	Wake Forest	46.5	Under
2016	10/15	Florida State	17	Wake Forest	6	Florida State -25.5	Wake Forest	51.0	Under
2015	10/03	Wake Forest	16	Florida State	24	Florida State -18	Wake Forest	45.5	Under
2014	10/04	Florida State	43	Wake Forest	3	Florida State -38	Florida State	0
2013	11/09	Wake Forest	3	Florida State	59	Florida State -34.5	Florida State	0
2012	09/15	Florida State	52	Wake Forest	0
2011	10/08	Wake Forest	35	Florida State	30
2010	09/25	Florida State	31	Wake Forest	0
2009	11/14	Wake Forest	28	Florida State	41
2008	09/20	Florida State	3	Wake Forest	12
2007	10/11	Wake Forest	24	Florida State	21
2006	11/11	Florida State	0	Wake Forest	30
2005	10/08	Florida State	41	Wake Forest	24
2004	10/23	Wake Forest	17	Florida State	20
2003	10/25	Florida State	48	Wake Forest	24
2002	11/02	Wake Forest	21	Florida State	34
2001	09/29	Florida State	48	Wake Forest	24
2000	11/10	Wake Forest	6	Florida State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wake Forest	7	6	1 Overs
Florida State	17	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	7 - 4	4 - 2	3 - 2
Road Teams	11 - 13	4 - 7	2 - 3	2 - 4

(#10) FSU at (#103) WAKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	WAKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#10	#103
SP+SP+	#7	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#15	#56
OffenseOff	#23	#63
DefenseDef	#16	#45
Spec TeamsST	#42	#44
TalentTal	#20	#70
Blue ChipsBC%	#19	#63

Florida State Injury Report

Wake Forest Injury Report

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	WAKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#45
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#37	#80
SP+SP+	#16	#66
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#43	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#21	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#16

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#72
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Wake Forest on Offense


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	FSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#63	#16
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#123	#7
SP+SP+	#101	#7
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wake Forest Run Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#123	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#8	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Wake Forest Pass Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#6
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Florida State 21.0 (53.5)
Florida State won at Wake Forest this year (41-16)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Wake Forest last year (42-7)
Florida State beat Wake Forest in 2023 (41-16)

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan Travis	207	324	64%	2745	20	2	8.5
Tate Rodemaker	32	56	57%	510	5	0	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trey Benson	156	905	14	5.8	85
Lawrance Toafili	69	463	4	6.7	73
Rodney Hill	50	190	1	3.8	19
Caziah Holmes (Tr)	29	185	2	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)	50	658	11	13.2	58
Johnny Wilson	41	617	2	15.0	44
Jaheim Bell (Tr)	39	503	2	12.9	49
Kyle Morlock (Tr)	19	255	0	13.4	63

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tatum Bethune	70	7	1	3	3
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Shyheim Brown	53	2	2	2	4
DJ Lundy	52	6	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Verse	40	12	9	7	2
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9
Braden Fiske (Tr)	42	9	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Renardo Green	43	3	1	1	12
Azareye'h Thomas	27	3	0	0	10
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mitch Griffis	123	207	59%	1539	9	8	7.4
Michael Kern	56	92	61%	645	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	137	586	5	4.3	42
Justice Ellison	120	548	1	4.6	51
Tate Carney	49	244	4	5.0	74
Mitch Griffis	106	128	2	1.2	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jahmal Banks	59	653	4	11.1	33
Taylor Morin	41	617	2	15.0	61
Ke'Shawn Williams	38	384	1	10.1	34
Wesley Grimes	20	339	4	17.0	49

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Hazen	86	9	1	3	0
Jacob Roberts (Tr)	82	10	6	3	1
Malik Mustapha	80	5	1	1	2
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	49	16	8	10	2
Jacob Roberts (Tr)	82	10	6	3	1
Kendron Wayman	35	4	2	4	2
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caelen Carson	42	1	0	0	6
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5
Nick Andersen	33	1	1	1	3