Miami at Florida State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Florida State -14.5 (50.5) (-650) Open: -15.5 | 50.0
Florida State 27 - Miami: 20 (ACC)

Hurricanes (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (8 - 7)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 4.2 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MIAMI 2nd straight Road Game
FSU is playing their 6th straight game
MIAMI is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -11.5 (SP+ FSU -12)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 21 - FSU: 32 (56)
FSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
MIAMI Travel: 396 miles

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami vs Miami (OH)	-16.5	45.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Miami vs Texas A&M	+3.0	50.5	W 48 - 33	O	Y
Thu 9/14	Miami vs Bethune-Cookman	-54.0	63.5	W 48 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Miami at Temple	-23.0	46.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Miami vs Georgia Tech	-19.0	57.0	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/14	Miami at North Carolina	+2.5	57.5	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Miami vs Clemson	+3.0	48.5	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Miami vs Virginia	-18.5	48.0	W 29 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/4	Miami at NC State	-6.5	44.0	L 6 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/11	Miami at Florida State	+14.5	50.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Miami vs Louisville	-1.5	46.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/24	Miami at Boston College	-13.5	50.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Miami vs Rutgers	+3.0	41.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	.13	44%	43.9	48%	3.09	128	42%	240	3.5	.15	41%	25.3	43%	40%	3.76	59.6	2.1	2.1
FSU	.36	49%	15.4	52%	3.33	214	46%	270	4.32	.15	41%	28	44%	38%	4.08	57.9	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	12	43.9	40.5	44.3%	3.5	2.1	21	368	128	240	3.7	45%	54%	48%	42%	17%	.13
FSU Defense	13	28	22.7	41.4%	4.08	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	12	25.3	30.8	41.3%	3.76	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	40%	21%	.15
FSU Offense	13	15.4	16.4	49%	4.32	1.1	24	484	214	270	5.5	51%	48%	52%	46%	15%	.36

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	12	30:42	21.2	40%	41%	7	59.6	2.1	2.1	6.9	3.1	3	28.2
Florida State	13	31:01	24.2	51%	35%	6.6	57.9	1.1	1.4	6	2.9	1	33.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	12	45%	48%	34.5	128.1	3.7	12	.09	3.09	70%	11%	0.78
FSU Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	73%	11%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	.12	2.81	68%	14%	0.96
FSU Offense	13	51%	52%	39.2	214.1	5.5	33	.33	3.33	65%	10%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	12	54%	42%	21.3	34.4	239.9	7	11.3	18	12	.2	1.5	31%	32%	.29	7%	1.8
FSU Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.17	1.6	34%	28%	.3	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	12	47%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.21	1.8	32%	34%	.29	7%	1.9
FSU Offense	13	48%	46%	19.2	30.4	270.2	8.9	14.1	28	7	.41	1.7	29%	39%	.51	5%	2.2

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 9.90 #22
Miami's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
2023 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 64% #11
Miami's 2023 Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20
Miami's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 9.90 Florida State: 22.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 11.7 Florida State: 23.7

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 828.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 32
Miami 21

Projected Total Points: 56

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Miami	36	Florida State	14	Miami	Miami -22.5	Florida State	55.0	Under
2023	11/11	Florida State	27	Miami	20	Florida State	Florida State -14.5	Miami	50.5	Under
2022	11/05	Miami	3	Florida State	45	Florida State	Florida State -6.5	Florida State	54.0	Under
2021	11/13	Florida State	31	Miami	28	Florida State	Miami -2.5	Florida State	61.5	Under
2020	09/26	Miami	52	Florida State	10	Miami	Miami -12.5	Miami	54.0	Over
2019	11/02	Florida State	10	Miami	27	Miami	Florida State -3	Miami	50.0	Under
2018	10/06	Miami	28	Florida State	27	Miami	Miami -14	Florida State	48.5	Over
2017	10/07	Florida State	20	Miami	24	Miami	Miami -3	Miami	45.5	Under
2016	10/08	Miami	19	Florida State	20	Florida State	Miami -1.5	Florida State	61.5	Under
2015	10/10	Florida State	29	Miami	24	Florida State	Florida State -9	Miami	54.0	Under
2014	11/15	Miami	26	Florida State	30	Florida State	Florida State -2.5	Florida State	0
2013	11/02	Florida State	41	Miami	14	Florida State	Florida State -21	Florida State	0
2012	10/20	Miami	20	Florida State	33	Florida State
2011	11/12	Florida State	23	Miami	19	Florida State
2010	10/09	Miami	17	Florida State	45	Florida State
2009	09/07	Florida State	34	Miami	38	Miami
2008	10/04	Miami	39	Florida State	41	Florida State
2007	10/20	Florida State	29	Miami	37	Miami
2006	09/04	Miami	10	Florida State	13	Florida State
2005	09/05	Florida State	10	Miami	7	Florida State
2004	09/10	Miami	16	Florida State	10	Miami
2003	01/01	Florida State	14	Miami	16	Miami
2003	10/11	Florida State	14	Miami	22	Miami
2002	10/12	Miami	28	Florida State	27	Miami
2001	10/13	Florida State	27	Miami	49	Miami
2000	10/06	Miami	27	Florida State	24	Miami

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	13	7	2 Overs
Miami	13	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	3 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 12	9 - 3	3 - 1	6 - 2

(#22) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.90 #22
Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 64% #11
Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20

Team Profile

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Miami Ratings Matchup Florida State

Power #22

#10

Off #42

#37

Def #41

Talent #15

#24

SP+ #22

SP+ Off #32

#16

SP+ Def #36

Rematch from Week 11
Florida State -14.5 (50.5)
Florida State won vs Miami this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida State last year (36-14)
Florida State beat Miami in 2023 (27-20)
Florida State beat Miami in 2022 (45-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 79° - Wind: 8 mph

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | FSU
Depth Chart: MIAMI | FSU
Rosters: MIAMI | FSU

(#10) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7
Talent Rating: 828.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40

Team Profile

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Miami's OC Shannon Dawson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Van Dyke	43	68	63%	422	1	0	6.2
Jacurri Brown	34	66	52%	387	1	4	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jacurri Brown	53	401	4	7.6	67
Donald Chaney Jr.	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74
Brashard Smith	39	327	4	8.4	33

View Miami's Full Roster

Miami's DC Lance Guidry

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)	96	11	2	5	5
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte	40	8	7	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey	30	13	8	9	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte	40	8	7	5	0
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Chantz Williams	18	7	4	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)	96	11	2	5	5
Chantz Williams	18	7	4	1	4

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Rodney Hill	28	184	2	6.6	70
Winston Wright	13	91	0	7.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32

View Florida State's Full Roster

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Dennis Briggs Jr.	42	5	4	5	0
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4
Greedy Vance	29	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Dennis Briggs Jr.	42	5	4	5	0
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4
Malcolm Ray	25	3	1	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4