Florida State at Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo   Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators  Florida logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Florida State -6 (51.0) (-225)  Open: -9.0
Florida State 24 - Florida: 15

 
Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
FSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -10.5  (SP+ FSU -18)
Projected Score: FSU: 31 - FLA: 20 (51)
FSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
FSU Travel: 129 miles
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Florida State vs LSU+2.056.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Florida State vs Southern Miss-31.054.0W 66 - 13OY
Sat 9/16 Florida State at Boston College-25.548.0W 31 - 29ON
Sat 9/23 Florida State at Clemson-2.055.5W 31 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-23.552.5W 39 - 17ON
Sat 10/14 Florida State vs Syracuse-18.553.5W 41 - 3UY
Sat 10/21 Florida State vs Duke-14.049.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 10/28 Florida State at Wake Forest-21.053.5W 41 - 16OY
Sat 11/4 Florida State at Pittsburgh-21.550.0W 24 - 7UN
Sat 11/11 Florida State vs Miami-14.550.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 11/18 Florida State vs North Alabama-35.5
Sat 11/25 Florida State at Florida-6.051.0W 24 - 15UY
Sat 12/2 Florida State vs Louisville-3.551.0W 16 - 6UY
Sat 12/30 Florida State vs Georgia+23.547.0L 3 - 63ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU.3649%3352%3.3321446%2704.32.1541%2244%38%4.0857.91.11.4
FLA.2640%21.641%3.1720039%2243.65.2345%2447%44%4.3650.11.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense133318.649%4.321.1244842142705.551%48%52%46%15%.36
FLA Defense132418.745.3%4.362 - - - - - 55%44%47%44%14%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense132230.241.4%4.081.4 - - - - - 56%43%44%38%17%.15
FLA Offense1321.62939.8%3.651.1204242002245.554%46%41%39%13%.26

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1331:0124.251%35%6.657.91.11.462.9133.2
Florida1329:022040%47%6.850.11.125.41.8228.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1351%52%39.2214.15.533.333.3365%10%1.11
FLA Defense1355%47% - - - - .213.1773%10%1.05
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1356%44% - - - - .163.2773%11%0.9
FLA Offense1354%41%36.3200.25.529.263.1780%8%1.29

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1348%46%19.230.4270.28.914.1287.411.729%39%.515%2.2
FLA Defense1344%44% - - - - - - 9.281.631%39%.464%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1343%38% - - - - - - 8.171.634%28%.36%2.1
FLA Offense1346%39%15.328.2223.8814.6189.31.835%30%.435%2.3

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 16.06  #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82  #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10  #7
2023 Talent Rating: 765.33  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 39%  #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7  #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 16.06   Florida: 9.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 23.7   Florida: 5.9




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 9.575  #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02  #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38  #90
2023 Talent Rating: 845.29  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 31
Florida 20

Projected Total Points: 51
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Florida40Florida State21Florida State -1.5Florida48.5Over
202411/30Florida State11Florida31Florida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21Florida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17Florida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41Florida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37
201111/26Florida7Florida State21
201011/27Florida State31Florida7
200911/28Florida37Florida State10
200811/29Florida State15Florida45
200711/24Florida45Florida State12
200611/25Florida State14Florida21
200511/26Florida34Florida State7
200411/20Florida State13Florida20
200311/29Florida34Florida State38
200111/17Florida37Florida State13
200011/17Florida State30Florida7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1365 Overs
Florida State1165 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 129 - 35 - 14 - 2

(#10) FSU at (#26) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #10 #26
SP+SP+ #7 #42
Perf GradeGrade #15 #47
OffenseOff #23 #37
DefenseDef #16 #83
Spec TeamsST #42 #105
TalentTal #20 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #19 #10
Florida State on Offense
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #23 #83
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #37 #90
SP+SP+ #16 #64
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida State Run Game
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #43 #54
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #115
Florida State Pass Game
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #19 #115
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #5 #64
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Florida on Offense
CategoryCatFLA OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #37 #16
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #19 #7
SP+SP+ #42 #7
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #64 #45
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #32
Florida Pass Game
CategoryCatFLA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #55 #12
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #6
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Florida State 6.0 (51.0)
Florida State won at Florida this year (24-15)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (40-21)
Florida beat Florida State in 2024 (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)

  
FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan Travis20732464%27452028.5
Tate Rodemaker325657%510509.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Benson156905145.885
Lawrance Toafili6946346.773
Rodney Hill5019013.819
Caziah Holmes (Tr)2918526.440
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)506581113.258
Johnny Wilson41617215.044
Jaheim Bell (Tr)39503212.949
Kyle Morlock (Tr)19255013.463

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tatum Bethune707133
Kalen DeLoach6711802
Shyheim Brown532224
DJ Lundy526224
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Verse4012972
Kalen DeLoach6711802
Patrick Payton4314679
Braden Fiske (Tr)429650
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Renardo Green4331112
Azareye'h Thomas2730010
Patrick Payton4314679

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)26035773%28782038.1
Max Brown192868%192016.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Montrell Johnson15281755.452
Trevor Etienne13175385.762
Treyaun Webb2616326.343
Ricky Pearsall362220.739
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky Pearsall64970415.261
Eugene Wilson6153868.830
Arlis Boardingham26289411.125
Kahleil Jackson21251112.045

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell592003
Shemar James556100
Scooby Williams524140
Jaydon Hill394223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen39117160
Derek Wingo184321
Jaydon Hill394223
Kelby Collins242231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Marshall Jr.2631011
Jalen Kimber230015
Jordan Castell592003