Southern Miss at Florida State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Florida State Seminoles(#14)

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (8:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -31 (54.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Florida State 66 - Southern Miss: 13

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (24 - 48 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Florida State -35 (SP+ FSU -39)
Projected Score: USM: 11 - FSU: 46 (58)
FSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
USM Travel: 304 miles, 1 hrs behind

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (45 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	#109 (.12)	37% (121)	23.2	40% (106)	2.89 (107)	163	34% (126)	191	3.07 (121)	#105 (.24)	42% (69)	35.8	41% (49)	45% (109)	4.15 (103)	48.2	1.3	1.4
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	34.6	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	19.3	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	#132 ()	35% (130)		40% (108)	2.59 (126)	109	30% (133)	175	2.75 (133)	#125 (.3)	44% (97)		45% (89)	43% (93)	4.17 (104)	48.3	2.4	0.8
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	12	23.2	24.2	36.7%	3.07	1.3	20	354	163	191	4	53%	46%	40%	34%	20%	.12
FSU Defense	14	19.3	14.3	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	12	35.8	47.5	42.2%	4.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	45%	16%	.24
FSU Offense	14	34.6	44.8	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	12	33:15	20.3	38%	44%	6.3	48.2	1.3	1.4	4.5	2.1	2	28
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	12	53% (41)	40% (106)	40.5	163.4	4	16 (89)	.13 (80)	2.89 (107)	67% (109)	12% (109)	1.11 (19)
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	12	53% (106)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.22 (109)	3.21 (94)	67% (30)	10% (76)	1.24 (129)
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	12	46% (92)	34% (126)	15.7	30.4	190.7	6.3	12.2	15 (96)	8 (30)	.14 (114)	1.7 (26)	36% (126)	28% (87)	.34 (67)	8% (117)	2.1 (49)
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	12	46% (27)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (101)	1.7 (101)	31% (93)	33% (103)	.4 (106)	6% (63)	2.3 (123)
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -10.22 Florida State: 22.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -15.2 Florida State: 23.7

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.2
Defense: 35.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 47.5

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 46
Southern Miss 11

Total Points: 58

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.8
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Florida State	66	Southern Miss	13	Florida State	Florida State -31	Florida State	54.0	Over
2017	12/27	Florida State	42	Southern Miss	13	Florida State	Florida State -12.5	Florida State	48.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	2	2	2 Overs
Southern Miss	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#119) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Southern Miss has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 5 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss offense is explosive (#57)

Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss offense is really bad (#78)
Southern Miss Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#90)
Southern Miss offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#81)
Southern Miss run game is really bad (#99)
Southern Miss pass game is really bad (#56)
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Southern Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#78)
Southern Miss has a bad red zone defense (#64)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	FSU	USM
OverallOver	#12	#102
OffenseOff	#21	#102
DefenseDef	#12	#81
Special TeamsST	#35	#86
PassingPass	#18	#103
RushingRush	#29	#39
Run BlockRBLK	#19	#89
Pass BlockPBLK	#5	#101
Route RunningWR Rt	#47	#94
TacklingTkl	#30	#107
Run DefenseR Def	#39	#41
Pass Rush DefPRush	#5	#45
Coverage DefCov	#10	#114

Rematch from Week 2
Florida State -31.0 (54.0)
Florida State won vs Southern Miss this year (66-13)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (66-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USM | FSU
Depth Chart: USM | FSU
Rosters: USM | FSU

(#10) Florida State Info
Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40

Florida State has won 1 straight
Florida State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida State Highlights
Florida State is Undefeated at Home

Florida State offense is explosive (#1)
Florida State offense is good in red zone (#13)
Florida State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Florida State has a really good defense (#50)
Florida State has a good pass defense (#46)
Florida State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#35)
Florida State Defensive Line is very good (#87)
Florida State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Florida State Secondary is very good (#34)
Florida State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
Florida State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#32)
Florida State run game is really bad (#63)

Southern Miss's OC Sam Gregg

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Wiles (Tr)	158	290	55%	1916	11	7	6.6
Ethan Crawford	19	38	50%	246	3	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Frank Gore Jr.	231	1131	10	4.9	75
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	76	429	2	5.6	59
Kenyon Clay	40	179	1	4.5	28
Ethan Crawford	42	96	1	2.3	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakarius Caston	33	621	6	18.8	80
Latreal Jones	36	498	3	13.8	43
Tiaquelin Mims	39	445	2	11.4	37
Frank Gore Jr.	27	221	3	8.2	33

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

Southern Miss's DC Dan O'Brien

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	72	1	1	0	1
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	0	5
Hayes Maples	51	1	1	3	0
Swayze Bozeman	51	4	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalil Clemons	26	10	6	6	1
Josh Ratcliff	28	4	4	0	0
Averie Habas	13	3	3	1	0
Ja'Len Sims	28	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	5
Markel McLaurin	31	3	2	5
MJ Daniels (Tr)	26	0	0	4

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan Travis	207	324	64%	2745	20	2	8.5
Tate Rodemaker	32	56	57%	510	5	0	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trey Benson	156	905	14	5.8	85
Lawrance Toafili	69	463	4	6.7	73
Rodney Hill	50	190	1	3.8	19
Caziah Holmes (Tr)	29	185	2	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)	50	658	11	13.2	58
Johnny Wilson	41	617	2	15.0	44
Jaheim Bell (Tr)	39	503	2	12.9	49
Kyle Morlock (Tr)	19	255	0	13.4	63

View Florida State's Full Roster

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tatum Bethune	70	7	1	3	3
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Shyheim Brown	53	2	2	2	4
DJ Lundy	52	6	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Verse	40	12	9	7	2
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9
Braden Fiske (Tr)	42	9	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Renardo Green	43	3	1	1	12
Azareye'h Thomas	27	3	0	0	10
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9