Southern Miss at Florida State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (8:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -31 (54.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Florida State 66 - Southern Miss: 13

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (11 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Florida State -35 (SP+ FSU -39)
Projected Score: USM: 8 - FSU: 43 (49)
FSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
USM Travel: 304 miles, 1 hrs behind

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.11	39%	15.3	40%	2.8	142	39%	208	3.69	.1	36%	37.8	37%	37%	3.86	59.5	2	1.8
FSU	.36	49%	15.4	52%	3.33	214	46%	270	4.32	.15	41%	28	44%	38%	4.08	57.9	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	13	15.3	11	38.6%	3.69	2	18	349	142	208	3.9	53%	45%	40%	39%	19%	.11
FSU Defense	13	28	22.7	41.4%	4.08	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	13	37.8	42.5	36.4%	3.86	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	37%	37%	18%	.1
FSU Offense	13	15.4	16.4	49%	4.32	1.1	24	484	214	270	5.5	51%	48%	52%	46%	15%	.36

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	13	28:38	17.9	34%	63%	6.7	59.5	2	1.8	7.8	3	3	32.3
Florida State	13	31:01	24.2	51%	35%	6.6	57.9	1.1	1.4	6	2.9	1	33.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	13	53%	40%	36.6	141.7	3.9	15	.06	2.8	60%	13%	0.97
FSU Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	73%	11%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.79	74%	13%	1.03
FSU Offense	13	51%	52%	39.2	214.1	5.5	33	.33	3.33	65%	10%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	13	45%	39%	14.7	26.6	207.5	7.8	14.1	20	14	.25	1.7	33%	26%	.26	6%	2.2
FSU Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.17	1.6	34%	28%	.3	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.18	1.7	36%	27%	.21	6%	2.1
FSU Offense	13	48%	46%	19.2	30.4	270.2	8.9	14.1	28	7	.41	1.7	29%	39%	.51	5%	2.2

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 408.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -10.22 Florida State: 22.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -15.2 Florida State: 23.7

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 828.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 43
Southern Miss 8

Projected Total Points: 49

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Florida State	66	Southern Miss	13	Florida State	Florida State -31	Florida State	54.0	Over
2017	12/27	Florida State	42	Southern Miss	13	Florida State	Florida State -12.5	Florida State	48.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	2	2	2 Overs
Southern Miss	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#119) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125
Talent Rating: 408.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile

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Southern Miss Ratings Matchup Florida State

Power #119

#10

Off #116

#37

Def #102

Talent #111

#24

SP+ #118

SP+ Off #85

#16

SP+ Def #125

Rematch from Week 2
Florida State -31.0 (54.0)
Florida State won vs Southern Miss this year (66-13)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (66-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: USM | FSU
Depth Chart: USM | FSU
Rosters: USM | FSU

(#10) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7
Talent Rating: 828.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40

Team Profile

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Southern Miss's OC Sam Gregg

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Pittman	1	1	100%	25	0	0	25.0
Holman Edwards (Tr)	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	124	604	1	4.9	54
Chandler Pittman	2	7	0	3.5	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	13	51	0	3.9	19
Chandler Pittman	8	51	0	6.4	25

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

Southern Miss's DC Dan O'Brien

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	41	2	0	1	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Kristin Booth	10	3	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Kristin Booth	10	3	2	2	0
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	41	2	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	41	2	0	1	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Rodney Hill	28	184	2	6.6	70
Winston Wright	13	91	0	7.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32

View Florida State's Full Roster

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Dennis Briggs Jr.	42	5	4	5	0
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4
Greedy Vance	29	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Dennis Briggs Jr.	42	5	4	5	0
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4
Malcolm Ray	25	3	1	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4