Florida State at Boston College - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#10)Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -25.5 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Florida State 31 - Boston College: 29 (ACC)

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (30 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BC 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Florida State -21.5 (SP+ FSU -28.5)
Projected Score: FSU: 36 - BC: 15 (51)
FSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 1097 miles

Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Hafley (16 - 22)
Avg Score : 25 - 28 (25 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
BC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Boston College's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boston College vs Northern Illinois	-8.0	50.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boston College vs Holy Cross	-10.0	52.0	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/16	Boston College vs Florida State	+25.5	48.0	L 29 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Boston College at Louisville	+14.0	53.0	L 28 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boston College vs Virginia	-5.0	52.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/7	Boston College at Army	+2.5	47.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Boston College at Georgia Tech	+5.5	57.0	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Boston College vs UConn	-14.5	49.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/3	Boston College at Syracuse	+3.0	51.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Boston College vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	48.5	L 22 - 48	O	N
Thu 11/16	Boston College at Pittsburgh	+1.0	47.0	L 16 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/24	Boston College vs Miami	+13.5	50.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
Thu 12/28	Boston College vs SMU	+13.5	49.0	W 23 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	34.6	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	19.3	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2
BC	#62 (.21)	42% (63)	24.8	46% (35)	3.31 (29)	197	37% (106)	184	3.92 (66)	#113 (.26)	43% (82)	28.3	43% (66)	44% (106)	4.41 (120)	55.2	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)		41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)		40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	14	34.6	30.2	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21
BC Defense	13	28.3	31	43.1%	4.41	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	43%	44%	12%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	14	19.3	18.2	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09
BC Offense	13	24.8	24.9	42.3%	3.92	1.5	21	381	197	184	4.7	61%	38%	46%	37%	13%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5
Boston College	13	31:07	21.5	41%	76%	6.5	55.2	1.5	1.1	2.9	0.8	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)
BC Defense	13	55% (118)	43% (66)	-	-	-	-	.15 (77)	3.09 (65)	82% (113)	7% (128)	1.08 (107)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)
BC Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (35)	42	196.7	4.7	25 (37)	.26 (17)	3.31 (29)	88% (1)	7% (17)	1.12 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)
BC Defense	13	44% (16)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.43 (125)	1.7 (105)	31% (84)	32% (98)	.37 (99)	4% (123)	2.1 (82)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)
BC Offense	13	38% (125)	37% (106)	15.7	27.8	184.2	6.6	11.7	15 (96)	14 (107)	.17 (103)	1.6 (71)	29% (18)	28% (89)	.39 (45)	6% (56)	2.4 (2)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 16.06 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39% #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 16.06 Boston College: -1.655

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 23.7 Boston College: -4.9

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: -1.655 #82
Boston College's Offense Rating: 17.63 #56
Boston College's Defense Rating: 15.21 #120
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
Boston College's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Boston College's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.9 #81
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #83
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.2
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.2

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 36
Boston College 15

Total Points: 51

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 24.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.9
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 31

Boston College's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/02	Florida State	13	Boston College	28	Boston College	Florida State -16.5	Boston College	50.0	Under
2023	09/16	Boston College	29	Florida State	31	Florida State	Florida State -25.5	Boston College	48.0	Over
2022	09/24	Florida State	44	Boston College	14	Florida State	Florida State -18.5	Florida State	48.5	Over
2021	11/20	Boston College	23	Florida State	26	Florida State	Boston College -3	Florida State	55.5	Under
2019	11/09	Boston College	31	Florida State	38	Florida State	Boston College -1	Florida State	64.5	Over
2018	11/17	Florida State	22	Boston College	21	Florida State	Boston College -2.5	Florida State	47.5	Under
2017	10/27	Boston College	35	Florida State	3	Boston College	Florida State -6	Boston College	46.5	Under
2016	11/11	Florida State	45	Boston College	7	Florida State	Florida State -23	Florida State	47.0	Over
2015	09/18	Boston College	0	Florida State	14	Florida State	Florida State -10.5	Florida State	47.5	Under
2014	11/22	Florida State	20	Boston College	17	Florida State	Florida State -20.5	Boston College	0
2013	09/28	Boston College	34	Florida State	48	Florida State	Florida State -23	Boston College	0
2012	10/13	Florida State	51	Boston College	7	Florida State
2011	11/03	Boston College	7	Florida State	38	Florida State
2010	10/16	Florida State	24	Boston College	19	Florida State
2009	10/03	Boston College	28	Florida State	21	Boston College
2008	11/15	Florida State	17	Boston College	27	Boston College
2007	11/03	Boston College	17	Florida State	27	Florida State
2006	10/21	Florida State	19	Boston College	24	Boston College
2005	09/17	Boston College	17	Florida State	28	Florida State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boston College	5	5	4 Overs
Florida State	14	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 11	6 - 5	2 - 4	4 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 8	5 - 6	1 - 4	4 - 2

(#10) Florida State Info
Power Rating: 16.06 #10
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39% #19
Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40

Florida State has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 5 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Florida State Highlights
Florida State offense is explosive (#1)
Florida State offense is good in red zone (#13)
Florida State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Florida State has a really good defense (#50)
Florida State has a good pass defense (#46)
Florida State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#35)
Florida State Defensive Line is very good (#87)
Florida State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Florida State Secondary is very good (#34)
Florida State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
Florida State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#32)
Florida State run game is really bad (#63)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	BC	FSU
OverallOver	#72	#12
OffenseOff	#64	#21
DefenseDef	#74	#12
Special TeamsST	#82	#35
PassingPass	#100	#18
RushingRush	#28	#29
Run BlockRBLK	#21	#19
Pass BlockPBLK	#7	#5
Route RunningWR Rt	#107	#47
TacklingTkl	#91	#30
Run DefenseR Def	#52	#39
Pass Rush DefPRush	#88	#5
Coverage DefCov	#73	#10

Rematch from Week 3
Florida State 25.5 (48.0)
Florida State won at Boston College this year (31-29)

Previous Matchups
Boston College beat Florida State last year (28-13)
Florida State beat Boston College in 2023 (31-29)
Florida State beat Boston College in 2022 (44-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | BC
Depth Chart: FSU | BC
Rosters: FSU | BC

(#82) Boston College Info
Power Rating: -1.655 #82
Offense Rating: 17.63 #56
Defense Rating: 15.21 #120
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.9 #81
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #83
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #78
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50

Boston College has won 1 straight
Boston College has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 4 (1 - 6 - 0 vs Spread)

Boston College Highlights
Boston College has Really Good Running Game (#130)
Boston College has a top Offensive Line (#122)

Boston College Deficiencies
Boston College Commits a Lot of Penalties (#38)
Boston College throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Boston College pass game is really bad (#26)
Boston College does not Sack the QB (#31)
Boston College gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#74)
Boston College has a bad red zone defense (#70)

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan Travis	207	324	64%	2745	20	2	8.5
Tate Rodemaker	32	56	57%	510	5	0	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trey Benson	156	905	14	5.8	85
Lawrance Toafili	69	463	4	6.7	73
Rodney Hill	50	190	1	3.8	19
Caziah Holmes (Tr)	29	185	2	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)	50	658	11	13.2	58
Johnny Wilson	41	617	2	15.0	44
Jaheim Bell (Tr)	39	503	2	12.9	49
Kyle Morlock (Tr)	19	255	0	13.4	63

View Florida State's Full Roster

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tatum Bethune	70	7	1	3	3
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Shyheim Brown	53	2	2	2	4
DJ Lundy	52	6	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Verse	40	12	9	7	2
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9
Braden Fiske (Tr)	42	9	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Renardo Green	43	3	1	1	12
Azareye'h Thomas	27	3	0	0	10
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9

Boston College's OC Steve Shimko

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)	189	330	57%	2270	15	14	6.9
Emmett Morehead	15	30	50%	124	0	0	4.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)	215	1113	13	5.2	45
Kye Robichaux (Tr)	163	780	8	4.8	57
Pat Garwo III	52	270	1	5.2	50
Alex Broome	60	266	1	4.4	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	52	646	7	12.4	42
Dino Tomlin	24	312	0	13.0	52
Joseph Griffin Jr.	19	283	0	14.9	38
Ryan O'Keefe (Tr)	23	235	1	10.2	38

View Boston College's Full Roster

Boston College's DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vinny DePalma	92	2	1	1	1
John Pupel	81	6	0	0	1
Kameron Arnold	65	3	1	5	3
Donovan Ezeiruaku	53	6	1	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shitta Sillah	14	3	2	2	0
Neto Okpala	27	6	2	7	1
George Rooks (Tr)	27	3	2	4	0
Khris Banks	24	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Jones	25	1	0	0	9
Jalen Cheek	26	0	0	0	3
Kameron Arnold	65	3	1	5	3