Arkansas at Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Florida -4.5 (50.0) (-148) Open: -5.0 | 48.5
Arkansas 39 - Florida: 36 (SEC)

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 28 (28 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FLA 2nd straight Home Game
ARK coming off BYE
Our Line: Florida -6.5 (SP+ FLA -3)
Projected Score: ARK: 22 - FLA: 29 (51)
FLA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 816 miles, 1 hrs behind

Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Florida at Utah	+5.5	44.5	L 11 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Florida vs McNeese	-48.5	55.5	W 49 - 7	O	N
Sat 9/16	Florida vs Tennessee	+5.0	57.0	W 29 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Florida vs Charlotte	-28.0	48.5	W 22 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Florida at Kentucky	+1.0	44.0	L 14 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Florida vs Vanderbilt	-18.0	51.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Florida at South Carolina	-1.0	50.0	W 41 - 39	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Florida vs Georgia	+14.0	50.0	L 20 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/4	Florida vs Arkansas	-4.5	50.0	L 36 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/11	Florida at LSU	+14.0	68.5	L 35 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Florida at Missouri	+12.5	56.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Florida vs Florida State	+6.0	51.0	L 15 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	26.6	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	27.9	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5
FLA	#39 (.27)	44% (47)	28.4	43% (63)	3.11 (69)	152	45% (36)	257	4.7 (14)	#106 (.24)	38% (26)	27.6	36% (15)	40% (45)	4.08 (93)	49.6	1	0.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	12	26.6	27.8	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18
FLA Defense	12	27.6	17.8	37.9%	4.08	0.6	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	36%	40%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	12	27.9	30.3	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14
FLA Offense	12	28.4	31.5	43.9%	4.7	1	22	409	152	257	4.3	48%	52%	43%	45%	16%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5
Florida	12	33:06	21.6	37%	41%	6.6	49.6	1	0.6	4.9	1.8	0	26.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)
FLA Defense	12	50% (71)	36% (15)	-	-	-	-	.16 (84)	2.97 (44)	59% (8)	10% (62)	1.28 (132)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)
FLA Offense	12	48% (88)	43% (63)	35.2	151.6	4.3	21 (54)	.17 (59)	3.11 (69)	72% (85)	12% (114)	1 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)
FLA Defense	12	49% (71)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.35 (107)	1.9 (129)	34% (39)	28% (37)	.34 (82)	6% (82)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)
FLA Offense	12	52% (40)	45% (36)	23.4	32.4	257.2	7.9	11	20 (70)	5 (6)	.37 (33)	1.6 (76)	32% (79)	30% (74)	.43 (38)	4% (13)	2.1 (48)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 3.28 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30% #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 3.28 Florida: 9.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 2.7 Florida: 5.9

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 9.575 #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Florida 29
Arkansas 22

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida 29
Arkansas 21

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Florida 29
Arkansas 25

Total Points: 54

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.8

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Florida	36	Arkansas	39	Florida -4.5	Arkansas	50.0	Over
2020	11/14	Florida	63	Arkansas	35	Florida -17.0	Florida	62.0	Over
2016	11/05	Arkansas	31	Florida	10	Florida -3.5	Arkansas	44.0	Under
2013	10/05	Florida	30	Arkansas	10	Florida -12.5	Florida	0
2009	10/17	Florida	23	Arkansas	20
2008	10/04	Arkansas	7	Florida	38
2006	12/02	Florida	38	Arkansas	28
2004	10/02	Florida	45	Arkansas	30
2003	10/18	Arkansas	28	Florida	33

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	7	2	2 Overs
Arkansas	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 6	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2

(#47) ARK at (#26) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	FLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#47	#26
SP+SP+	#58	#42
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#47
OffenseOff	#75	#37
DefenseDef	#58	#83
Spec TeamsST	#51	#105
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#25	#10

Arkansas Injury Report

Florida Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	FLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#83
SuccessSuc	#105	#26
ExplosiveExp	#80	#133
PPAPPA	#75	#106
PowerPwr	#65	#90
SP+SP+	#57	#64
Pts POPPO	#35	#93
HavocHav	#120	#74

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#101	#54
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#15
Run ExplRExp	#115	#132
PPAExp	#70	#84
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#56
TackleTak	-	#115

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#45
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#129
PPAExp	#80	#107
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#102	#64
F7 HavocF7	#130	#62
DB HavocDB	#32	#82

Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	FLA Off	ARK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#37	#58
SuccessSuc	#47	#40
ExplosiveExp	#61	#95
PPAPPA	#39	#42
PowerPwr	#19	#55
SP+SP+	#42	#69
Pts POPPO	#14	#79
HavocHav	#78	#28

Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#64	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#48
Run ExplRExp	#64	#29
PPAExp	#59	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#92	#53
TackleTak	-	#19

Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#36	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#130
PPAExp	#33	#65
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#47
F7 HavocF7	#114	#29
DB HavocDB	#13	#42

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Florida -4.5 (50.0)
Arkansas won at Florida this year (39-36)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Florida in 2023 (39-36)

ARK's OC Kenny Guiton (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)	260	357	73%	2878	20	3	8.1
Max Brown	19	28	68%	192	0	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montrell Johnson	152	817	5	5.4	52
Trevor Etienne	131	753	8	5.7	62
Treyaun Webb	26	163	2	6.3	43
Ricky Pearsall	3	62	2	20.7	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky Pearsall	64	970	4	15.2	61
Eugene Wilson	61	538	6	8.8	30
Arlis Boardingham	26	289	4	11.1	25
Kahleil Jackson	21	251	1	12.0	45

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	59	2	0	0	3
Shemar James	55	6	1	0	0
Scooby Williams	52	4	1	4	0
Jaydon Hill	39	4	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Princely Umanmielen	39	11	7	16	0
Derek Wingo	18	4	3	2	1
Jaydon Hill	39	4	2	2	3
Kelby Collins	24	2	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Marshall Jr.	26	3	1	0	11
Jalen Kimber	23	0	0	1	5
Jordan Castell	59	2	0	0	3