Texas A&M at Arkansas - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#9)Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -6.5 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas A&M 34 - Arkansas: 22 (SEC)

Aggies (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Jimbo Fisher (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (28 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 3.4 (#18)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Game in Dome
ARK is playing their 5th straight game
TA&M is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas A&M -12 (SP+ TA&M -12.5)
Projected Score: TA&M: 34 - ARK: 22 (56)
TA&M Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TA&M Travel: 154 miles

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 28 (22 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TA&M Players
ARK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas A&M's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas A&M vs New Mexico	-37.5	48.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas A&M at Miami	-3.0	50.5	L 33 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/16	Texas A&M vs UL Monroe	-36.5	53.5	W 47 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas A&M vs Auburn	-9.5	51.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	-6.5	53.5	W 34 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas A&M vs Alabama	+2.5	45.0	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 10/14	Texas A&M at Tennessee	+3.0	54.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas A&M vs South Carolina	-17.0	51.5	W 30 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas A&M at Ole Miss	+3.0	52.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas A&M vs Mississippi State	-16.5	40.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Texas A&M vs Abilene Christian	-40.5	54.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	Texas A&M at LSU	+10.5	67.5	L 30 - 42	O	N
Wed 12/27	Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State	+4.0	56.0	L 23 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TA&M	#42 (.24)	43% (54)	33.3	44% (58)	3.02 (85)	136	43% (58)	271	4.15 (44)	#21 (.1)	37% (20)	22.1	34% (7)	40% (46)	2.76 (6)	45.5	1.1	1
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	26.6	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	27.9	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TA&M	#54 (.21)	45% (41)		46% (38)	3.29 (27)	185	43% (58)	188	3.63 (93)	#67 (.16)	38% (23)		40% (38)	37% (22)	3.03 (9)	60.7	1	1.3
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TA&M Offense	13	33.3	27.8	43.2%	4.15	1.1	22	407	136	271	3.9	48%	51%	44%	43%	14%	.24
ARK Defense	12	27.9	27.8	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TA&M Defense	13	22.1	37	37%	2.76	1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	34%	40%	22%	.1
ARK Offense	12	26.6	21.7	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas A&M	13	31:24	22.1	43%	60%	5.9	45.5	1.1	1	7.4	3.2	2	35.5
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TA&M Offense	13	48% (84)	44% (58)	35.1	136.2	3.9	23 (46)	.14 (76)	3.02 (85)	78% (33)	9% (50)	0.94 (97)
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TA&M Defense	13	47% (35)	34% (7)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (9)	2.46 (6)	61% (13)	15% (4)	0.99 (67)
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TA&M Offense	13	51% (48)	43% (58)	21.1	32.7	270.8	8.3	12.9	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (41)	1.7 (23)	31% (60)	33% (46)	.46 (26)	5% (31)	2.3 (17)
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TA&M Defense	13	52% (99)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (77)	1.7 (98)	38% (3)	26% (22)	.18 (11)	7% (33)	2.2 (118)
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 14.95 #13
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 16.69 #63
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 0.57 #9
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #4
Texas A&M's 2023 Expected Record: 9.60 - 3.40
Texas A&M's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #20
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #15

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas A&M: 14.95 Arkansas: 2.99

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas A&M: 15.4 Arkansas: 2.7

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 2.99 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Texas A&M's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas A&M 34
Arkansas 22

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas 34
Texas A&M 28

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Texas A&M 29
Arkansas 27

Total Points: 56

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Arkansas	42	Texas A&M	45	Texas A&M -7.5	Arkansas	57.5	Over
2024	09/28	Texas A&M	21	Arkansas	17	Texas A&M -6.5	Arkansas	50.5	Under
2023	09/30	Arkansas	22	Texas A&M	34	Texas A&M -6.5	Texas A&M	53.5	Over
2022	09/24	Texas A&M	23	Arkansas	21	Texas A&M -1.5	Texas A&M	51.0	Under
2021	09/25	Arkansas	20	Texas A&M	10	Texas A&M -4.5	Arkansas	47.0	Under
2020	10/31	Texas A&M	42	Arkansas	31	Texas A&M -10.5	Texas A&M	0
2019	09/28	Arkansas	27	Texas A&M	31	Texas A&M -23	Arkansas	59.5	Under
2018	09/29	Texas A&M	24	Arkansas	17	Texas A&M -20	Arkansas	56.5	Under
2017	09/23	Arkansas	43	Texas A&M	50	Arkansas -2.5	Texas A&M	58.5	Over
2016	09/24	Texas A&M	45	Arkansas	24	Texas A&M -3	Texas A&M	52.0	Over
2015	09/26	Arkansas	21	Texas A&M	28	Texas A&M -3.5	Texas A&M	61.5	Under
2014	09/27	Texas A&M	35	Arkansas	28	Texas A&M -12.5	Arkansas	0
2013	09/28	Arkansas	33	Texas A&M	45	Texas A&M -3	Texas A&M	0
2012	09/29	Texas A&M	58	Arkansas	10
2011	10/01	Arkansas	42	Texas A&M	38
2010	10/09	Texas A&M	17	Arkansas	24
2009	10/03	Arkansas	47	Texas A&M	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas	4	6	4 Overs
Texas A&M	13	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 7	6 - 7	3 - 4	3 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 10	7 - 6	3 - 3	4 - 3

(#13) TA&M at (#47) ARK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TA&M	ARK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#13	#47
SP+SP+	#15	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#18	#65
OffenseOff	#32	#75
DefenseDef	#21	#58
Spec TeamsST	#27	#51
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#4	#25

Texas A&M Injury Report

Arkansas Injury Report

Texas A&M on Offense


CategoryCat	TA&M Off	ARK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#32	#58
SuccessSuc	#54	#40
ExplosiveExp	#36	#95
PPAPPA	#42	#42
PowerPwr	#63	#55
SP+SP+	#20	#69
Pts POPPO	#44	#79
HavocHav	#36	#28

Texas A&M Run Game


CategoryCat	TA&M Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#93	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#48
Run ExplRExp	#97	#29
PPAExp	#76	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#53
TackleTak	-	#19

Texas A&M Pass Game


CategoryCat	TA&M Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#16	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#58	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#23	#130
PPAExp	#41	#65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#47
F7 HavocF7	#50	#29
DB HavocDB	#31	#42

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	TA&M Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#21
SuccessSuc	#105	#20
ExplosiveExp	#80	#110
PPAPPA	#75	#21
PowerPwr	#65	#9
SP+SP+	#57	#15
Pts POPPO	#35	#6
HavocHav	#120	#5

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	TA&M Def
Run GameRun	#101	#17
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#7
Run ExplRExp	#115	#67
PPAExp	#70	#9
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#6
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#10
TackleTak	-	#98

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	TA&M Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#98
PPAExp	#80	#77
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#25
F7 HavocF7	#130	#4
DB HavocDB	#32	#33

Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 88° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Texas A&M 6.5 (53.5)
Texas A&M won at Arkansas this year (34-22)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Arkansas last year (21-17)
Texas A&M beat Arkansas in 2023 (34-22)
Texas A&M beat Arkansas in 2022 (23-21)

TA&M's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Max Johnson	118	190	62%	1452	9	5	7.6
Conner Weigman	82	119	69%	979	8	2	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amari Daniels	105	532	6	5.1	79
Le'Veon Moss	96	484	5	5.0	36
Rueben Owens	101	385	3	3.8	28
Jaylen Henderson (Tr)	41	104	2	2.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ainias Smith	53	795	2	15.0	42
Jahdae Walker (Tr)	35	590	2	16.9	40
Evan Stewart	38	514	4	13.5	44
Noah Thomas	29	359	5	12.4	34

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Edgerrin Cooper	83	19	10	9	2
Taurean York	74	9	3	5	0
Demani Richardson	59	3	1	4	3
Bryce Anderson	56	8	3	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Edgerrin Cooper	83	19	10	9	2
Shemar Turner	31	9	5	3	0
Fadil Diggs	36	11	4	6	2
Walter Nolen	36	8	4	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deuce Harmon	18	1	0	0	7
Josh DeBerry (Tr)	39	5	1	1	7
Tyreek Chappell	21	1	0	0	6

ARK's OC Kenny Guiton (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5