Purdue at Northwestern - 2021 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers vs Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, November 20th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Purdue -11 (47.5)
Purdue 32 - Northwestern: 14 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (21 - 26)
Avg Score : 29 - 22 (29 - 23 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PUR 2nd straight Road Game
NW is playing their 6th straight game
PUR is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -10.5 (SP+ PUR -21.5)
Projected Score: PUR: 28 - NW: 23 (51)
PUR Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
PUR Travel: 467 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (21 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Purdue vs Oregon State	-7.0	67.0	W 30 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Purdue at UConn	-35.0	56.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Purdue at Notre Dame	+7.5	58.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/25	Purdue vs Illinois	-10.5	53.5	W 13 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/2	Purdue vs Minnesota	-2.0	46.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Purdue at Iowa	+11.0	42.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+3.5	41.0	L 13 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/30	Purdue at Nebraska	+7.5	54.0	W 28 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Purdue vs Michigan State	+2.5	53.0	W 40 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Purdue at Ohio State	+19.0	65.5	L 31 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/20	Purdue vs Northwestern	-11.0	47.5	W 32 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Purdue vs Indiana	-18.0	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Thu 12/30	Purdue vs Tennessee	+8.0	67.0	W 48 - 45	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	.23	46%	29.1	44%	2.79	84	47%	355	3.93	.17	40%	22.4	41%	38%	3.46	42.8	1.5	1.3
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	13	29.1	29	46%	3.93	1.5	24	440	84	355	2.8	35%	64%	44%	47%	15%	.23
NW Defense	12	29	19.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	13	22.4	23.2	39.8%	3.46	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	38%	18%	.17
NW Offense	12	16.6	21.2	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	13	31:57	23.9	44%	53%	4.5	42.8	1.5	1.3	5.9	1.9	1	28.1
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	13	35%	44%	30.2	84.2	2.8	7	-.04	2.79	68%	10%	0.57
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	13	53%	41%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.9	64%	11%	0.97
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	13	64%	47%	31.3	44.3	355.4	8	11.4	35	12	.39	1.5	29%	38%	.52	6%	2.1
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.25	1.8	32%	27%	.18	7%	1.9
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: NR
Purdue's Offense Rating: NR
Purdue's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Purdue's 2021 Expected Record: -
Purdue's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #44
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #25

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: Northwestern: -5.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: 10.3 Northwestern: -11.1

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -5.55 NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Purdue's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Purdue 28
Northwestern 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Purdue 30
Northwestern 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Purdue 27
Northwestern 21

Total Points: 48

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Northwestern	19	Purdue	0	Northwestern -3	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2024	11/02	Purdue	20	Northwestern	26	Purdue -3	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2023	11/18	Northwestern	23	Purdue	15	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2022	11/19	Purdue	17	Northwestern	9	Purdue -17.5	Northwestern	44.5	Under
2021	11/20	Northwestern	14	Purdue	32	Purdue -11	Purdue	47.5	Under
2020	11/14	Purdue	20	Northwestern	27	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2019	11/09	Northwestern	22	Purdue	24	Purdue -0.0	Purdue	38.5	Over
2018	08/30	Purdue	27	Northwestern	31	Purdue -1	Northwestern	52.5	Over
2017	11/11	Northwestern	23	Purdue	13	Northwestern -6	Northwestern	49.5	Under
2016	11/12	Purdue	17	Northwestern	45	Northwestern -10.5	Northwestern	58.0	Over
2015	11/14	Northwestern	21	Purdue	14	Northwestern -13	Purdue	48.0	Under
2014	11/22	Purdue	14	Northwestern	38	Northwestern -2	Northwestern	0
2010	10/09	Northwestern	17	Purdue	20
2009	10/03	Purdue	21	Northwestern	27
2008	10/18	Northwestern	48	Purdue	26
2007	10/27	Purdue	35	Northwestern	17
2006	10/14	Northwestern	10	Purdue	31
2005	10/15	Purdue	29	Northwestern	34
2004	10/30	Northwestern	13	Purdue	10
2003	11/01	Purdue	34	Northwestern	14
2002	10/26	Northwestern	13	Purdue	42
2001	10/27	Purdue	32	Northwestern	27
2000	10/13	Northwestern	28	Purdue	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	13	9	4 Overs
Purdue	10	3	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 13	3 - 9	3 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 10	9 - 3	4 - 0	5 - 3

(#) PUR at (#) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#35	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#76	#122
OffenseOff	#33	#122
DefenseDef	#113	#112
Spec TeamsST	#72	#47
TalentTal	#46	#44
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Purdue Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#44	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#117	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#93	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#113
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#73	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#69	#34
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 47° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Purdue 11.0 (47.5)
Purdue won at Northwestern this year (32-14)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Purdue last year (26-20)
Northwestern beat Purdue in 2023 (23-15)
Purdue beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-9)

PUR's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Brad Lambert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD