Michigan State at Purdue - 2021 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers

Saturday, November 6th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Michigan State -2.5 (53.0)
Purdue 40 - Michigan State: 29 (Big Ten)

Spartans (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mel Tucker (5 - 5)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ MSU -1)
Projected Score: MSU: 27 - PUR: 25 (52)
MSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 202 miles

Boilermakers (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (21 - 26)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Michigan State at Northwestern	+3.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-28.5	52.0	W 42 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/18	Michigan State at Miami	+7.0	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Michigan State vs Nebraska	-3.5	55.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	Michigan State vs Western Kentucky	-10.5	66.5	W 48 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Michigan State at Rutgers	-4.5	50.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Michigan State at Indiana	-3.5	48.5	W 20 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Michigan State vs Michigan	+4.0	50.5	W 37 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Michigan State at Purdue	-2.5	53.0	L 29 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/13	Michigan State vs Maryland	-11.5	60.0	W 40 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Michigan State at Ohio State	+19.5	70.5	L 7 - 56	U	N
Sat 11/27	Michigan State vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Thu 12/30	Michigan State vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	55.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Purdue's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Purdue vs Oregon State	-7.0	67.0	W 30 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Purdue at UConn	-35.0	56.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Purdue at Notre Dame	+7.5	58.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/25	Purdue vs Illinois	-10.5	53.5	W 13 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/2	Purdue vs Minnesota	-2.0	46.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Purdue at Iowa	+11.0	42.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+3.5	41.0	L 13 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/30	Purdue at Nebraska	+7.5	54.0	W 28 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Purdue vs Michigan State	+2.5	53.0	W 40 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Purdue at Ohio State	+19.0	65.5	L 31 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/20	Purdue vs Northwestern	-11.0	47.5	W 32 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Purdue vs Indiana	-18.0	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Thu 12/30	Purdue vs Tennessee	+8.0	67.0	W 48 - 45	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	-.02	33%	24.6	28%	2.17	92	38%	239	2.49	.13	40%	29.9	38%	41%	3.71	65.1	2.9	1.4
PUR	.19	44%	18.8	45%	2.64	81	44%	309	3.8	.17	44%	31.8	42%	46%	3.88	60	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	7	24.6	21.6	33.2%	2.49	2.9	16	331	92	239	2.7	48%	52%	28%	38%	21%	-.02
PUR Defense	6	31.8	30	43.7%	3.88	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	42%	46%	14%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	7	29.9	32.8	39.6%	3.71	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	41%	16%	.13
PUR Offense	6	18.8	20.9	43.9%	3.8	1.2	23	390	81	309	3.3	34%	66%	45%	44%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	7	27:14	16.1	33%	42%	6.9	65.1	2.9	1.4	6.1	1.7	0	25.7
Purdue	6	27:40	22.7	38%	55%	7	60	1.2	1.2	5.5	0.8	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	7	48%	28%	34	92.1	2.7	2	-.17	2.17	63%	13%	0.9
PUR Defense	6	56%	42%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.5	74%	10%	0.7

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	7	48%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	2.42	64%	10%	1.06
PUR Offense	6	34%	45%	25	81.3	3.3	4	-.01	2.64	59%	10%	0.69

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	7	52%	38%	18.9	34.7	238.9	6.9	12.7	11	12	.14	1.6	36%	23%		8%	1.8
PUR Defense	6	44%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.5	31%	33%	.39	4%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	7	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.26	1.5	33%	36%	.46	6%	2
PUR Offense	6	66%	44%	29.3	43.5	309	7.1	10.5	15	4	.29	1.4	31%	29%	.3	6%	2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.2 #28
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #31
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: Purdue: 7.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 11.2 Purdue: 10.3

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: 7.65 NR
Purdue's Offense Rating: NR
Purdue's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Purdue's 2021 Expected Record: -
Purdue's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #44
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #25

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 27
Purdue 25

Projected Total Points: 52

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/22	Michigan State	24	Purdue	17	Michigan State -14	Purdue	49.0	Under
2021	11/06	Purdue	40	Michigan State	29	Michigan State -2.5	Purdue	53.0	Over
2018	10/27	Michigan State	23	Purdue	13	Purdue -2.5	Michigan State	48.5	Under
2015	10/03	Michigan State	24	Purdue	21	Michigan State -24.5	Purdue	53.0	Under
2014	10/11	Purdue	31	Michigan State	45	Michigan State -21.5	Purdue	0
2013	10/19	Michigan State	14	Purdue	0	Michigan State -21	Purdue	0
2010	11/20	Michigan State	35	Purdue	31
2009	11/14	Purdue	37	Michigan State	40
2008	11/08	Michigan State	21	Purdue	7
2007	11/10	Purdue	31	Michigan State	48
2006	11/04	Michigan State	15	Purdue	17
2005	11/05	Purdue	28	Michigan State	21
2002	11/16	Michigan State	42	Purdue	45
2001	11/17	Purdue	24	Michigan State	14
2000	11/10	Michigan State	30	Purdue	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	5	5	1 Overs
Michigan State	10	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 5	3 - 3	0 - 3	3 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 10	3 - 3	0 - 3	3 - 0

(#) MSU at (#) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	PUR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#35
Perf GradeGrade	#36	#76
OffenseOff	#26	#33
DefenseDef	#43	#113
Spec TeamsST	#126	#72
TalentTal	#36	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Michigan State Injury Report

Purdue Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	PUR Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#113
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#31	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#51	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#34
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#44	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#117	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#93	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#91
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#20
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Michigan State 2.5 (53.0)
Purdue won vs Michigan State this year (40-29)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Purdue in 2024 (24-17)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

PUR's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Brad Lambert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD