Northwestern at Nebraska - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
Nebraska -11 (51.5)
Nebraska 56 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (12 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEB is playing their 5th straight game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -13 (SP+ NEB -21)
Projected Score: NW: 17 - NEB: 31 (48)
NEB Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
NW Travel: 474 miles

Cornhuskers (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (14 - 22)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
NEB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Nebraska's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Nebraska at Illinois	-6.5	52.0	L 22 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/4	Nebraska vs Fordham	-42.0	55.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Nebraska vs Buffalo	-13.5	54.0	W 28 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Nebraska at Oklahoma	+22.5	62.5	L 16 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Nebraska at Michigan State	+3.5	55.0	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Nebraska vs Northwestern	-11.0	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Nebraska vs Michigan	+2.5	50.5	L 29 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/16	Nebraska at Minnesota	-4.5	48.5	L 23 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Nebraska vs Purdue	-7.5	54.0	L 23 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/6	Nebraska vs Ohio State	+14.0	68.5	L 17 - 26	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Nebraska vs SE Louisiana	-28.5
Sat 11/20	Nebraska at Wisconsin	+10.0	43.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Nebraska vs Iowa	-1.5	41.0	L 21 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5
NEB	.27	45%	27.9	43%	3.05	181	47%	266	3.97	.19	44%	22.7	45%	44%	2.97	45	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
NEB	#74 (.18)	45% (37)		48% (22)	3.21 (40)	121	43% (55)	210	3.38 (114)	#44 (.13)	40% (50)		39% (24)	42% (82)	3.06 (11)	48.9	1.3	1.2

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	16.6	11.6	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12
NEB Defense	12	22.7	18.7	44.2%	2.97	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	44%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	29	40.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3
NEB Offense	12	27.9	32.3	44.5%	3.97	1.5	22	448	181	266	4.4	54%	46%	43%	47%	15%	.27

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7
Nebraska	12	28:53	21.6	41%	58%	5.3	45	1.5	1.1	5.6	1.7	0	28

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96
NEB Defense	12	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.96	71%	9%	0.82

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17
NEB Offense	12	54%	43%	40.8	181.2	4.4	31	.2	3.05	63%	10%	1.1

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2
NEB Defense	12	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	29%	31%	.35	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9
NEB Offense	12	46%	47%	17.9	28.5	266.4	9.4	14.9	14	11	.37	1.6	28%	30%	.26	5%	2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Nebraska: 7.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -11.1 Nebraska: 10.3

Nebraska's Power Ratings
Nebraska's Power Rating: 7.65 NR
Nebraska's Offense Rating: NR
Nebraska's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nebraska's 2021 Expected Record: -
Nebraska's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Nebraska's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #33
Nebraska's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #27

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Nebraska 31
Northwestern 17

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Nebraska 30
Northwestern 17

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Nebraska 33
Northwestern 18

Total Points: 51

Nebraska Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 22.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Nebraska's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Nebraska	28	Northwestern	21	Nebraska -7.5	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2023	10/21	Nebraska	17	Northwestern	9	Nebraska -10.5	Northwestern	40.0	Under
2022	08/27	Northwestern	31	Nebraska	28	Nebraska -12	Northwestern	52.5	Over
2021	10/02	Nebraska	56	Northwestern	7	Nebraska -11	Nebraska	51.5	Over
2020	11/07	Northwestern	21	Nebraska	13	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	53.0	Under
2019	10/05	Nebraska	13	Northwestern	10	Nebraska -7.5	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2018	10/13	Northwestern	34	Nebraska	31	Northwestern -3	Push	59.0	Over
2017	11/04	Nebraska	24	Northwestern	31	Nebraska -1	Northwestern	55.5	Under
2016	09/24	Northwestern	13	Nebraska	24	Nebraska -6.5	Nebraska	48.0	Under
2015	10/24	Nebraska	28	Northwestern	30	Nebraska -6.5	Northwestern	50.0	Over
2014	10/18	Northwestern	17	Nebraska	38	Nebraska -6.5	Nebraska	0
2013	11/02	Nebraska	27	Northwestern	24	Nebraska -7	Northwestern	0
2012	10/20	Northwestern	28	Nebraska	29
2011	11/05	Nebraska	25	Northwestern	28
2000	12/29	Nebraska	66	Northwestern	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nebraska	9	3	5 Overs
Northwestern	6	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	3 - 8	2 - 6	1 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 9	8 - 3	2 - 1	6 - 2

(#) NW at (#) NEB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	NEB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#35
Perf GradeGrade	#122	#93
OffenseOff	#122	#78
DefenseDef	#112	#83
Spec TeamsST	#47	#63
TalentTal	#44	#25
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Nebraska Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	NEB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#27
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	NEB Def
Run GameRun	#73	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#80

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	NEB Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#68
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nebraska on Offense


CategoryCat	NEB Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#33	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nebraska Run Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#88	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Nebraska Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#132	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Nebraska -11.0 (51.5)
Nebraska won vs Northwestern this year (56-7)

Previous Matchups
Nebraska beat Northwestern in 2023 (17-9)
Northwestern beat Nebraska in 2022 (31-28)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NEB's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nebraska's Full Roster

NEB's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD