Northwestern at Michigan - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines

Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -23.5 (51.5)
Michigan 33 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (12 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MICH coming off BYE
Our Line: -20 (SP+ MICH -35)
Projected Score: NW: 16 - MICH: 36 (52)
MICH Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
NW Travel: 202 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wolverines (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (52 - 22)
Avg Score : 36 - 17 (38 - 13 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Michigan's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Michigan vs Western Michigan	-16.5	65.5	W 47 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Michigan vs Washington	-6.5	47.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Michigan vs Northern Illinois	-27.5	54.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Michigan vs Rutgers	-20.0	50.0	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/2	Michigan at Wisconsin	+2.0	43.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Michigan at Nebraska	-2.5	50.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Michigan vs Northwestern	-23.5	51.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Michigan at Michigan State	-4.0	50.5	L 33 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/6	Michigan vs Indiana	-20.5	51.0	W 29 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Michigan at Penn State	-2.5	48.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Michigan at Maryland	-16.0	58.5	W 59 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Michigan vs Ohio State	+6.5	63.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/4	Michigan vs Iowa	-12.0	43.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Fri 12/31	Michigan vs Georgia	+7.5	47.0	L 11 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5
MICH	.27	47%	35.8	49%	3.18	214	43%	229	4.15	.12	38%	17.4	39%	38%	3.03	41.5	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)		41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)		38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	16.6	11.6	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12
MICH Defense	14	17.4	12.6	38.3%	3.03	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	39%	38%	17%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	29	40.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3
MICH Offense	14	35.8	37.9	46.5%	4.15	1	22	443	214	229	5.2	57%	43%	49%	43%	10%	.27

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7
Michigan	14	31:21	21.8	46%	52%	4.9	41.5	1	1.2	5.1	2.4	2	31.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96
MICH Defense	14	46%	39%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	66%	10%	0.91

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17
MICH Offense	14	57%	49%	41.1	214.4	5.2	39	.22	3.18	79%	5%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2
MICH Defense	14	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.5	33%	26%	.16	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9
MICH Offense	14	43%	43%	17.7	28.2	228.7	8.1	12.9	21	9	.33	1.6	28%	39%	.55	5%	2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Michigan: 14.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -11.1 Michigan: 23.4

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 14.2 NR
Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.4 #4
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #19
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.8 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 36
Northwestern 16

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 37
Northwestern 16

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 36
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 51

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.9
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.6

Michigan's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Northwestern	22	Michigan	24	Michigan -10	Northwestern	41.5	Over
2024	11/23	Michigan	50	Northwestern	6	Michigan -10.5	Michigan	35.5	Over
2021	10/23	Michigan	33	Northwestern	7	Michigan -23.5	Michigan	51.5	Under
2018	09/29	Northwestern	17	Michigan	20	Michigan -14.5	Northwestern	46.5	Under
2015	10/10	Michigan	38	Northwestern	0	Michigan -10	Michigan	37.0	Over
2014	11/08	Northwestern	9	Michigan	10	Northwestern -2	Michigan	0
2013	11/16	Northwestern	19	Michigan	27	Northwestern -1.5	Michigan	0
2012	11/10	Michigan	38	Northwestern	31
2011	10/08	Northwestern	24	Michigan	42
2008	11/15	Michigan	14	Northwestern	21
2007	09/29	Northwestern	16	Michigan	28
2006	10/28	Michigan	17	Northwestern	3
2005	10/29	Northwestern	17	Michigan	33
2004	11/13	Michigan	42	Northwestern	20
2003	11/15	Northwestern	10	Michigan	41
2000	11/03	Northwestern	54	Michigan	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	14	5	3 Overs
Northwestern	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 9	5 - 2	3 - 2	2 - 0
Road Teams	9 - 7	2 - 5	0 - 2	2 - 3

(#) NW at (#) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	MICH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#122	#6
OffenseOff	#122	#30
DefenseDef	#112	#6
Spec TeamsST	#47	#17
TalentTal	#44	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Michigan Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	MICH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#6
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#73	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#6

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	MICH Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#19	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#5	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#41	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#50	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 52° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Michigan -23.5 (51.5)
Michigan won vs Northwestern this year (33-7)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Northwestern last year (50-6)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MICH's OC Josh Gattis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Mike Macdonald (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD