Illinois at Purdue - 2021 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers

Saturday, September 25th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Purdue -10.5 (53.5)
Purdue 13 - Illinois: 9 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PUR is playing their 4th straight game
ILL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -5.5 (SP+ PUR -6)
Projected Score: ILL: 30 - PUR: 25 (55)
PUR Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ILL Travel: 73 miles, 1 hrs behind

Boilermakers (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (21 - 26)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Illinois vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.0	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Illinois vs UTSA	-4.5	52.0	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/11	Illinois at Virginia	+10.5	57.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Fri 9/17	Illinois vs Maryland	+7.0	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Illinois at Purdue	+10.5	53.5	L 9 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Illinois vs Charlotte	-10.0	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/9	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+12.5	42.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Illinois at Penn State	+24.5	46.0	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Illinois vs Rutgers	+1.5	41.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/6	Illinois at Minnesota	+14.5	44.5	W 14 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Illinois at Iowa	+12.0	37.5	L 23 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Illinois vs Northwestern	-7.0	45.0	W 47 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Purdue's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Purdue vs Oregon State	-7.0	67.0	W 30 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Purdue at UConn	-35.0	56.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Purdue at Notre Dame	+7.5	58.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/25	Purdue vs Illinois	-10.5	53.5	W 13 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/2	Purdue vs Minnesota	-2.0	46.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Purdue at Iowa	+11.0	42.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+3.5	41.0	L 13 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/30	Purdue at Nebraska	+7.5	54.0	W 28 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Purdue vs Michigan State	+2.5	53.0	W 40 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Purdue at Ohio State	+19.0	65.5	L 31 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/20	Purdue vs Northwestern	-11.0	47.5	W 32 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Purdue vs Indiana	-18.0	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Thu 12/30	Purdue vs Tennessee	+8.0	67.0	W 48 - 45	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.14	39%	29.4	43%	2.94	195	31%	153	2.92	.32	50%	23.6	49%	52%	4.44	50.1	1.1	1.9
PUR	.19	44%	18.8	45%	2.64	81	44%	309	3.8	.17	44%	31.8	42%	46%	3.88	60	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	8	29.4	26.6	38.6%	2.92	1.1	18	348	195	153	4.8	61%	39%	43%	31%	16%	.14
PUR Defense	6	31.8	30	43.7%	3.88	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	42%	46%	14%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	8	23.6	35.6	50.4%	4.44	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	52%	14%	.32
PUR Offense	6	18.8	20.9	43.9%	3.8	1.2	23	390	81	309	3.3	34%	66%	45%	44%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	8	27:02	18	38%	47%	4.9	50.1	1.1	1.9	5.6	2.3	0	27.8
Purdue	6	27:40	22.7	38%	55%	7	60	1.2	1.2	5.5	0.8	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	8	61%	43%	40.6	194.9	4.8	9	.16	2.94	74%	11%	1.11
PUR Defense	6	56%	42%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.5	74%	10%	0.7

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	8	58%	49%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.42	85%	10%	0.96
PUR Offense	6	34%	45%	25	81.3	3.3	4	-.01	2.64	59%	10%	0.69

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	8	39%	31%	11.4	24.3	152.9	6.3	13.4	10	4	.12	1.9	35%	30%	.24	5%	2.1
PUR Defense	6	44%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.5	31%	33%	.39	4%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	8	42%	52%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.47	1.5	25%	32%	.39	4%	2.1
PUR Offense	6	66%	44%	29.3	43.5	309	7.1	10.5	15	4	.29	1.4	31%	29%	.3	6%	2

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: Purdue: 7.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 4.3 Purdue: 10.3

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: 7.65 NR
Purdue's Offense Rating: NR
Purdue's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Purdue's 2021 Expected Record: -
Purdue's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #44
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #25

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 30
Purdue 25

Projected Total Points: 55

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Purdue	27	Illinois	43	Illinois -7.5	Illinois	55.5	Over
2024	10/12	Illinois	50	Purdue	49	Illinois -22.5	Purdue	47.5	Over
2023	09/30	Purdue	44	Illinois	19	Purdue -1.0	Purdue	54.0	Over
2022	11/12	Illinois	24	Purdue	31	Illinois -6.0	Purdue	44.0	Over
2021	09/25	Purdue	13	Illinois	9	Purdue -10.5	Illinois	53.5	Under
2020	10/31	Illinois	24	Purdue	31	Purdue -7.0	NA	0
2019	10/26	Purdue	6	Illinois	24	Purdue -9	Illinois	54.5	Under
2018	10/13	Illinois	7	Purdue	46	Purdue -10.5	Purdue	62.0	Under
2017	11/04	Purdue	29	Illinois	10	Purdue -14	Purdue	50.0	Under
2016	10/08	Illinois	31	Purdue	34	Illinois -9	Purdue	49.5	Over
2015	11/07	Purdue	14	Illinois	48	Illinois -1.5	Illinois	50.0	Over
2014	10/04	Illinois	27	Purdue	38	Illinois -10.5	Purdue	0
2013	11/23	Purdue	16	Illinois	20	Illinois -6.5	Purdue	0
2012	11/17	Illinois	17	Purdue	20
2011	10/22	Purdue	21	Illinois	14
2010	10/30	Illinois	44	Purdue	10
2009	10/24	Purdue	24	Illinois	14
2006	11/11	Illinois	31	Purdue	42
2005	11/12	Purdue	37	Illinois	3
2004	09/25	Illinois	30	Purdue	38
2003	10/04	Purdue	43	Illinois	10
2002	10/12	Illinois	38	Purdue	31
2001	11/03	Purdue	13	Illinois	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	15	8	6 Overs
Illinois	8	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 13	3 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 10	9 - 3	3 - 1	6 - 2

(#) ILL at (#) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	PUR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#35
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#76
OffenseOff	#84	#33
DefenseDef	#39	#113
Spec TeamsST	#26	#72
TalentTal	#51	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Illinois Injury Report

Purdue Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PUR Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#113
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#99	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#77	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#34
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#39
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#44	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#117	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#93	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#12

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Purdue -10.5 (53.5)
Purdue won vs Illinois this year (13-9)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Purdue last year (43-27)
Illinois beat Purdue in 2024 (50-49)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2023 (44-19)

ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

PUR's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Brad Lambert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD