Northwestern at Wisconsin - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers

Saturday, November 13th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Wisconsin -26.0 (41.5)
Wisconsin 35 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (12 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 14.9 MPH
WIS is playing their 8th straight game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -18 (SP+ WIS -31)
Projected Score: NW: 13 - WIS: 29 (42)
WIS Win prob: 95% | Cover: 58%
NW Travel: 112 miles

Badgers (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Paul Chryst (57 - 20)
Avg Score : 25 - 16 (25 - 17 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
WIS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Wisconsin's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Wisconsin vs Penn State	-5.5	48.5	L 10 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/11	Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan	-26.0	52.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25	Wisconsin vs Notre Dame	-6.0	43.5	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/2	Wisconsin vs Michigan	-2.0	43.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/9	Wisconsin at Illinois	-12.5	42.0	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Wisconsin vs Army	-14.0	37.5	W 20 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/23	Wisconsin at Purdue	-3.5	41.0	W 30 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Wisconsin vs Iowa	-3.0	35.5	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Wisconsin at Rutgers	-13.0	37.5	W 52 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Wisconsin vs Northwestern	-26.0	41.5	W 35 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Wisconsin vs Nebraska	-10.0	43.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/27	Wisconsin at Minnesota	-7.0	39.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Thu 12/30	Wisconsin vs Arizona State	-8.5	42.5	W 20 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5
WIS	.14	45%	25.4	47%	3.15	211	42%	160	3.07	.02	33%	16.2	33%	33%	2.87	43.6	1.8	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)		46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)		45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	16.6	11.6	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12
WIS Defense	13	16.2	16.7	32.9%	2.87	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	33%	33%	21%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	29	40.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3
WIS Offense	13	25.4	25.4	44.5%	3.07	1.8	20	371	211	160	4.8	62%	38%	47%	42%	13%	.14

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7
Wisconsin	13	33:47	20.1	34%	55%	5.4	43.6	1.8	2.1	7	3	3	29.6

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96
WIS Defense	13	49%	33%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.11	73%	14%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17
WIS Offense	13	62%	47%	43.6	210.9	4.8	26	.16	3.15	70%	8%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2
WIS Defense	13	51%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.08	1.6	38%	28%	.26	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9
WIS Offense	13	38%	42%	13.6	23.1	160.2	6.9	11.8	11	13	.14	1.4	27%	32%	.16	5%	1.6

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Wisconsin: 12.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -11.1 Wisconsin: 20.1

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 12.55 NR
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: NR
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Wisconsin's 2021 Expected Record: -
Wisconsin's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.1 #7
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #58
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Wisconsin 29
Northwestern 13

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Wisconsin 28
Northwestern 10

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Wisconsin 30
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 45

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 25.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.4
Defense: 16.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.7

Wisconsin's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Northwestern	3	Wisconsin	23	Wisconsin -9.5	Wisconsin	42.5	Under
2023	11/11	Wisconsin	10	Northwestern	24	Wisconsin -9.5	Northwestern	43.5	Under
2022	10/08	Northwestern	7	Wisconsin	42	Wisconsin -10	Wisconsin	44.5	Over
2021	11/13	Wisconsin	35	Northwestern	7	Wisconsin -26.0	Wisconsin	41.5	Over
2020	11/21	Northwestern	17	Wisconsin	7	Wisconsin -7.5	Northwestern	43.0	Under
2019	09/28	Wisconsin	24	Northwestern	15	Wisconsin -23	Northwestern	46.0	Under
2018	10/27	Northwestern	31	Wisconsin	17	Wisconsin -4.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2017	09/30	Wisconsin	33	Northwestern	24	Wisconsin -16.5	Northwestern	50.5	Over
2016	11/05	Northwestern	7	Wisconsin	21	Wisconsin -6.5	Wisconsin	41.5	Under
2015	11/21	Wisconsin	7	Northwestern	13	Wisconsin -10.5	Northwestern	41.5	Under
2014	10/04	Northwestern	20	Wisconsin	14	Wisconsin -9.5	Northwestern	0
2013	10/12	Wisconsin	35	Northwestern	6	Wisconsin -10	Wisconsin	0
2010	11/27	Wisconsin	70	Northwestern	23
2009	11/21	Northwestern	33	Wisconsin	31
2006	10/07	Wisconsin	41	Northwestern	9
2005	10/08	Northwestern	51	Wisconsin	48
2004	10/23	Wisconsin	24	Northwestern	12
2003	10/25	Northwestern	16	Wisconsin	7
2000	09/22	Wisconsin	44	Northwestern	47

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wisconsin	10	5	3 Overs
Northwestern	9	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 6	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 13	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2

(#) NW at (#) WIS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	WIS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#122	#3
OffenseOff	#122	#19
DefenseDef	#112	#3
Spec TeamsST	#47	#49
TalentTal	#44	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Wisconsin Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	WIS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#2
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	WIS Def
Run GameRun	#73	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	WIS Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#42
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#9
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Wisconsin on Offense


CategoryCat	WIS Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wisconsin Run Game


CategoryCat	WIS Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#75	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Wisconsin Pass Game


CategoryCat	WIS Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#103	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WIS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 38° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Wisconsin -26.0 (41.5)
Wisconsin won vs Northwestern this year (35-7)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Northwestern last year (23-3)
Northwestern beat Wisconsin in 2023 (24-10)
Wisconsin beat Northwestern in 2022 (42-7)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

WIS's OC Joe Rudolph (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Jim Leonhard (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD