Northwestern at Illinois - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini(#21)

Saturday, November 27th 2021 (3:30 PM EST)
Illinois -7 (45.0)
Illinois 47 - Northwestern: 14 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (12 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -10 (SP+ ILL -15)
Projected Score: NW: 16 - ILL: 26 (42)
ILL Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
NW Travel: 139 miles

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 22 (23 - 22 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Illinois vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.0	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Illinois vs UTSA	-4.5	52.0	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/11	Illinois at Virginia	+10.5	57.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Fri 9/17	Illinois vs Maryland	+7.0	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Illinois at Purdue	+10.5	53.5	L 9 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Illinois vs Charlotte	-10.0	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/9	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+12.5	42.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Illinois at Penn State	+24.5	46.0	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Illinois vs Rutgers	+1.5	41.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/6	Illinois at Minnesota	+14.5	44.5	W 14 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Illinois at Iowa	+12.0	37.5	L 23 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Illinois vs Northwestern	-7.0	45.0	W 47 - 14	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5
ILL	.13	40%	20.2	45%	3.38	174	33%	156	3.16	.18	44%	21.9	45%	42%	3.34	52.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	16.6	11.6	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12
ILL Defense	12	21.9	21.6	43.6%	3.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	29	40.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3
ILL Offense	12	20.2	23.1	39.7%	3.16	1	18	330	174	156	4.5	59%	41%	45%	33%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7
Illinois	12	29:11	17.6	38%	38%	5	52.8	1	1.6	5.7	2.5	0	28

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96
ILL Defense	12	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	78%	9%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17
ILL Offense	12	59%	45%	39	173.6	4.5	12	.15	3.38	86%	9%	0.87

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2
ILL Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.4	31%	27%	.18	6%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9
ILL Offense	12	41%	33%	13.8	26.8	156.2	5.8	11.4	13	6	.12	1.7	34%	25%	.15	7%	1.8

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Illinois: 4.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -11.1 Illinois: 4.3

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 4.65 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 26
Northwestern 16

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 25
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 28
Northwestern 18

Total Points: 46

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.1
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Illinois	20	Northwestern	13	Illinois -7	Push	44.5	Under
2024	11/30	Northwestern	28	Illinois	38	Illinois -8.5	Illinois	42.5	Over
2023	11/25	Illinois	43	Northwestern	45	Illinois -5	Northwestern	46.5	Over
2022	11/26	Northwestern	3	Illinois	41	Illinois -15.0	Illinois	38.0	Over
2021	11/27	Illinois	47	Northwestern	14	Illinois -7	Illinois	45.0	Over
2020	12/12	Northwestern	28	Illinois	10	Northwestern -13	Northwestern	41.0	Under
2019	11/30	Illinois	10	Northwestern	29	Illinois -6.5	Northwestern	38.0	Over
2018	11/24	Northwestern	24	Illinois	16	Northwestern -14.5	Illinois	56.0	Under
2017	11/25	Illinois	7	Northwestern	42	Northwestern -16.5	Northwestern	46.0	Over
2016	11/26	Northwestern	42	Illinois	21	Northwestern -15	Northwestern	48.5	Over
2015	11/28	Illinois	14	Northwestern	24	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	42.0	Under
2014	11/29	Northwestern	33	Illinois	47	Northwestern -9	Illinois	0
2013	11/30	Illinois	34	Northwestern	37	Northwestern -4	Illinois	0
2012	11/24	Northwestern	50	Illinois	14
2011	10/01	Illinois	38	Northwestern	35
2010	11/20	Northwestern	27	Illinois	48
2009	11/14	Illinois	16	Northwestern	21
2008	11/22	Northwestern	27	Illinois	10
2007	11/17	Illinois	41	Northwestern	22
2006	11/18	Northwestern	27	Illinois	16
2005	11/19	Illinois	21	Northwestern	38
2004	11/20	Northwestern	28	Illinois	21
2003	11/22	Illinois	20	Northwestern	37
2001	11/22	Illinois	34	Northwestern	28
2000	11/17	Northwestern	61	Illinois	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	9	6	7 Overs
Northwestern	16	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 8	3 - 4	1 - 4
Road Teams	12 - 13	8 - 4	4 - 1	4 - 3

(#) NW at (#) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#64
Perf GradeGrade	#122	#53
OffenseOff	#122	#84
DefenseDef	#112	#39
Spec TeamsST	#47	#26
TalentTal	#44	#51
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#39
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#73	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#12

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#99	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#77	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#100	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 45° - Wind: 11 mph
Rain: 0.012

Rematch from Week 13
Illinois -7.0 (45.0)
Illinois won vs Northwestern this year (47-14)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Northwestern last year (38-28)
Northwestern beat Illinois in 2023 (45-43)
Illinois beat Northwestern in 2022 (41-3)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD