Minnesota at Northwestern - 2021 Matchup Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -7.5 (43.5)
Minnesota 41 - Northwestern: 14 (Big Ten)

Golden Gophers (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (28 - 20)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (30 - 14 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -10.5 (SP+ MINN -25.5)
Projected Score: MINN: 22 - NW: 18 (40)
MINN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MINN Travel: 342 miles

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (21 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MINN Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Minnesota's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Minnesota vs Ohio State	+14.0	62.0	L 31 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Minnesota vs Miami (OH)	-18.5	55.0	W 31 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/18	Minnesota at Colorado	+2.5	49.0	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-30.5	52.5	L 10 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/2	Minnesota at Purdue	+2.0	46.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Minnesota vs Nebraska	+4.5	48.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Minnesota vs Maryland	-4.0	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Minnesota at Northwestern	-7.5	43.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Minnesota vs Illinois	-14.5	44.5	L 6 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/13	Minnesota at Iowa	+4.0	37.5	L 22 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/20	Minnesota at Indiana	-7.5	43.0	W 35 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+7.0	39.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Tue 12/28	Minnesota vs West Virginia	-5.0	44.5	W 18 - 6	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	.18	42%	25.5	43%	3.13	198	41%	162	3.73	.1	37%	17.3	38%	37%	3.75	45.3	1	1.4
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Offense	13	25.5	29.6	42%	3.73	1	20	360	198	162	4.3	68%	32%	43%	41%	14%	.18
NW Defense	12	29	19.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Defense	13	17.3	13.6	37.4%	3.75	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	37%	17%	.1
NW Offense	12	16.6	21.2	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Minnesota	13	35:26	19.9	44%	60%	4.5	45.3	1	1.4	4.5	1.9	0	32
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Offense	13	68%	43%	46.3	198.1	4.3	27	.12	3.13	81%	9%	0.91
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	74%	10%	0.94
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Offense	13	32%	41%	11.7	19.7	162	8.2	13.9	12	9	.31	1.8	29%	30%	.34	5%	2
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.15	1.4	35%	21%	.12	7%	2
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: NR
Minnesota's Offense Rating: NR
Minnesota's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Minnesota's 2021 Expected Record: -
Minnesota's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #18
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #63
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #8

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: Northwestern: -3.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 14.4 Northwestern: -11.1

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -3.05 NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 25.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.6
Defense: 17.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.6

Minnesota's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 22
Northwestern 18

Total Points: 40

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 19
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 26
Northwestern 17

Total Points: 43

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Northwestern	38	Minnesota	35	Northwestern -4.0	Minnesota	41.0	Over
2023	09/23	Northwestern	37	Minnesota	34	Minnesota -11.5	Northwestern	39.5	Over
2022	11/12	Minnesota	31	Northwestern	3	Minnesota -17	Minnesota	40.5	Under
2021	10/30	Northwestern	14	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -7.5	Minnesota	43.5	Over
2019	11/23	Northwestern	22	Minnesota	38	Minnesota -15.5	Minnesota	41.0	Over
2018	11/17	Minnesota	14	Northwestern	24	Minnesota -3	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Northwestern	39	Minnesota	0	Northwestern -7	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2016	11/19	Minnesota	29	Northwestern	12	Minnesota -2	Minnesota	46.0	Under
2015	10/03	Northwestern	27	Minnesota	0	Northwestern -6.5	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2014	10/11	Minnesota	24	Northwestern	17	Minnesota -3.5	Minnesota	45.0	Under
2013	10/19	Northwestern	17	Minnesota	20	Northwestern -13	Minnesota	0
2012	10/13	Minnesota	13	Northwestern	21
2011	11/19	Northwestern	28	Minnesota	13
2010	10/02	Minnesota	28	Northwestern	29
2009	09/26	Northwestern	24	Minnesota	35
2008	11/01	Minnesota	17	Northwestern	24
2007	10/13	Northwestern	49	Minnesota	48
2004	09/25	Minnesota	43	Northwestern	17
2003	10/04	Northwestern	17	Minnesota	42
2002	10/10	Minnesota	45	Northwestern	42
2001	10/13	Northwestern	23	Minnesota	17
2000	10/27	Minnesota	35	Northwestern	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	12	4	4 Overs
Minnesota	10	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 10	6 - 5	5 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 12	5 - 6	2 - 1	3 - 5

(#) MINN at (#) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MINN	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#18	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#122
OffenseOff	#7	#122
DefenseDef	#30	#112
Spec TeamsST	#34	#47
TalentTal	#43	#44
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Minnesota Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#63	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#82	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#8
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#73	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#88

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#20
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#69	#71
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Minnesota 7.5 (43.5)
Minnesota won at Northwestern this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Minnesota in 2023 (37-34)
Minnesota beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-3)

MINN's OC Mike Sanford Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD