Michigan State at Northwestern - 2021 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Friday, September 3rd 2021 (9:00 PM EDT)
Northwestern -3 (45.5)
Michigan State 38 - Northwestern: 21  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mel Tucker (5 - 5)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (27 - 27 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -8.5  (SP+ MSU -22.5)
Projected Score: MSU: 22 - NW: 26 (48)
NW Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MSU Travel: 170 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (21 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3 Michigan State at Northwestern+3.045.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/11 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-28.552.0W 42 - 14ON
Sat 9/18 Michigan State at Miami+7.057.5W 38 - 17UY
Sat 9/25 Michigan State vs Nebraska-3.555.0W 23 - 20UN
Sat 10/2 Michigan State vs Western Kentucky-10.566.5W 48 - 31OY
Sat 10/9 Michigan State at Rutgers-4.550.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/16 Michigan State at Indiana-3.548.5W 20 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Michigan State vs Michigan+4.050.5W 37 - 33OY
Sat 11/6 Michigan State at Purdue-2.553.0L 29 - 40ON
Sat 11/13 Michigan State vs Maryland-11.560.0W 40 - 21OY
Sat 11/20 Michigan State at Ohio State+19.570.5L 7 - 56UN
Sat 11/27 Michigan State vs Penn State+3.551.5W 30 - 27OY
Thu 12/30 Michigan State vs Pittsburgh-3.555.0W 31 - 21UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3 Northwestern vs Michigan State-3.045.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/11 Northwestern vs Indiana State-28.546.0W 24 - 6UN
Sat 9/18 Northwestern at Duke-2.550.0L 23 - 30ON
Sat 9/25 Northwestern vs Ohio-13.547.5W 35 - 6UY
Sat 10/2 Northwestern at Nebraska+11.051.5L 7 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Northwestern vs Rutgers+2.545.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/23 Northwestern at Michigan+23.551.5L 7 - 33UN
Sat 10/30 Northwestern vs Minnesota+7.543.5L 14 - 41ON
Sat 11/6 Northwestern vs Iowa+11.540.5L 12 - 17UY
Sat 11/13 Northwestern at Wisconsin+26.041.5L 7 - 35ON
Sat 11/20 Northwestern vs Purdue+11.047.5L 14 - 32UN
Sat 11/27 Northwestern at Illinois+7.045.0L 14 - 47ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU.2743%31.844%2.9417643%2543.78.1944%25.341%46%3.4363.91.41.7
NW.1238%16.643%2.8314534%1772.97.347%2948%45%4.2841.91.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1331.827.243.3%3.781.4214291762544.852%48%44%43%18%.27
NW Defense122919.246.6%4.281.5 - - - - - 53%47%48%45%12%.3
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1325.32744%3.431.7 - - - - - 38%61%41%46%17%.19
NW Offense1216.621.238.3%2.971.8173221451773.951%48%43%34%20%.12

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1328:2820.840%70%6.963.91.41.76.53.3429.3
Northwestern1228:1017.336%50%4.741.91.81.541.6026.7
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1352%44%36.8175.64.823.182.9467%10%1.12
NW Defense1253%48% - - - - .353.4975%8%1.17
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1338%41% - - - - .052.7870%10%0.85
NW Offense1251%43%37.71453.912.122.8377%12%0.96

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1348%43%18.730.8253.78.313.62710.381.832%33%.47%2.1
NW Defense1247%45% - - - - - - 6.231.329%35%.424%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1361%46% - - - - - - 10.281.433%32%.386%2.1
NW Offense1248%34%17.330.4177.35.810.21314.141.533%24%.167%2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.2  #28
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3  #31
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State:    Northwestern: -3.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 11.2   Northwestern: -11.1




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -3.05 NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1  #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4  #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Michigan State's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Northwestern 26
Michigan State 22

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 29
Michigan State 16

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Michigan State 27
Northwestern 23

Total Points: 50
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202109/03Northwestern21Michigan State38Northwestern -3Michigan State45.5Over
202011/28Michigan State29Northwestern20Northwestern -13.5Michigan State40.0Over
201909/21Northwestern10Michigan State31Michigan State -7.5Michigan State35.0Over
201810/06Michigan State19Northwestern29Michigan State -10.5Northwestern43.0Over
201710/28Northwestern39Michigan State31Michigan State -2Northwestern41.5Over
201610/15Michigan State40Northwestern54Michigan State -6.5Northwestern41.0Over
201311/23Northwestern6Michigan State30Michigan State -7Michigan State0
201211/17Michigan State20Northwestern23
201111/26Northwestern17Michigan State31
201010/23Northwestern27Michigan State35
200910/17Michigan State24Northwestern14
200810/11Northwestern20Michigan State37
200710/06Michigan State41Northwestern48
200610/21Northwestern38Michigan State41
200510/22Michigan State14Northwestern49
200209/28Michigan State39Northwestern24
200109/29Northwestern27Michigan State26
200009/29Michigan State17Northwestern37
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern836 Overs
Michigan State1040 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 132 - 50 - 32 - 2
Road Teams13 - 55 - 22 - 23 - 0

(#) MSU at (#) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #107
Perf GradeGrade #36 #122
OffenseOff #26 #122
DefenseDef #43 #112
Spec TeamsST #126 #47
TalentTal #36 #44
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Michigan State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSU OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #26 #112
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #31 #72
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Michigan State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSU OffNW Def
Run GameRun #51 #120
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #78
Michigan State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSU OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #61 #79
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #22 #119
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Northwestern on Offense
CategoryCatNW OffMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #122 #43
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #119 #30
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Northwestern Run Game
CategoryCat
NW OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #73 #20
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #57 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #109
Northwestern Pass Game
CategoryCatNW OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #133 #91
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #20
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.008
Rematch from Week 1
Northwestern -3.0 (45.5)
Michigan State won at Northwestern this year (38-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD