Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

How teams perform ATS when they're the home underdog (getting points). This isolates the "hostile environment for visiting favorites" effect.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Dog Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▲	Avg Margin vs Spread	Outright Wins
1	Cincinnati	Big 12	15	4-11	26.7%	-7.53	1
2	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	18	5-13	27.8%	-9.06	2
3	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	16	5-10-1	33.3%	-3.47	3
4	Nebraska	Big Ten	20	7-13	35.0%	-6.33	2
5	North Texas	American Athletic	21	7-13-1	35.0%	-2.24	5
6	Tennessee	SEC	20	7-13	35.0%	-4.23	5
7	UTEP	Conference USA	34	12-22	35.3%	-1.94	6
8	Akron	Mid-American	32	11-20-1	35.5%	-6.06	5
9	Georgia State	Sun Belt	26	9-16-1	36.0%	-2.21	7
10	Western Michigan	Mid-American	11	4-7	36.4%	-4.59	3
11	Purdue	Big Ten	30	11-19	36.7%	-2.93	7
12	Vanderbilt	SEC	38	14-24	36.8%	-2.51	7
13	Indiana	Big Ten	25	9-15-1	37.5%	-4.14	4
14	North Carolina	ACC	18	7-11	38.9%	-0.94	2
15	Tulsa	American Athletic	24	9-14-1	39.1%	-2.94	5
16	West Virginia	Big 12	25	9-14-2	39.1%	-3.30	8
17	Rutgers	Big Ten	39	15-23-1	39.5%	-5.88	4
18	Florida State	ACC	16	6-9-1	40.0%	-3.38	4
19	Georgia Tech	ACC	25	10-15	40.0%	-5.06	8
20	Massachusetts	Mid-American	35	14-21	40.0%	-3.21	5
21	Ole Miss	SEC	16	6-9-1	40.0%	-2.09	3
22	UAB	American Athletic	15	6-9	40.0%	+0.80	6
23	Texas State	Sun Belt	32	13-19	40.6%	-3.42	5
24	Louisville	ACC	17	7-10	41.2%	-0.91	5
25	Bowling Green	Mid-American	29	12-17	41.4%	-2.67	8
26	East Carolina	American Athletic	30	12-17-1	41.4%	+0.60	7
27	Air Force	Mountain West	13	5-7-1	41.7%	+6.77	5
28	Charlotte	American Athletic	36	15-21	41.7%	-3.04	10
29	Troy	Sun Belt	12	5-7	41.7%	-3.50	4
30	Utah State	Mountain West	24	10-14	41.7%	-1.44	6
31	Maryland	Big Ten	26	11-15	42.3%	-9.73	5
32	Mississippi State	SEC	26	11-15	42.3%	-1.31	6
33	Illinois	Big Ten	32	13-17-2	43.3%	-1.39	9
34	Stanford	ACC	31	13-17-1	43.3%	+0.40	8
35	Virginia Tech	ACC	16	7-9	43.8%	-1.69	5
36	Michigan State	Big Ten	25	11-14	44.0%	-3.36	8
37	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	27	12-15	44.4%	-0.31	9
38	South Carolina	SEC	30	13-16-1	44.8%	+1.77	9
39	Houston	Big 12	20	9-11	45.0%	+1.05	7
40	New Mexico	Mountain West	32	14-17-1	45.2%	-1.27	8
41	Army	American Athletic	11	5-6	45.5%	+0.00	4
42	Syracuse	ACC	33	15-18	45.5%	-0.24	11
43	Colorado State	Mountain West	25	11-13-1	45.8%	-1.44	6
44	UCLA	Big Ten	25	11-13-1	45.8%	+0.24	9
45	UNLV	Mountain West	25	11-13-1	45.8%	-2.48	6
46	Nevada	Mountain West	29	13-15-1	46.4%	+1.45	9
47	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	32	15-17	46.9%	+3.06	11
48	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	19	9-10	47.4%	-1.21	6
49	Northwestern	Big Ten	22	10-11-1	47.6%	+0.23	6
50	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	23	11-12	47.8%	-1.65	5
51	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	25	12-13	48.0%	-0.44	12
52	South Florida	American Athletic	25	12-13	48.0%	-2.06	4
53	Ball State	Mid-American	27	13-14	48.1%	-2.22	8
54	Arkansas	SEC	31	15-16	48.4%	-5.02	5
55	Baylor	Big 12	21	10-10-1	50.0%	-2.24	5
56	New Mexico State	Conference USA	26	13-13	50.0%	+2.33	7
57	San José State	Mountain West	25	12-12-1	50.0%	-3.10	6
58	Temple	American Athletic	34	17-17	50.0%	-1.13	10
59	Texas A&M	SEC	12	5-5-2	50.0%	+3.67	3
60	Wake Forest	ACC	22	11-11	50.0%	-2.36	5
61	Wisconsin	Big Ten	10	5-5	50.0%	-2.90	2
62	Florida International	Conference USA	31	16-15	51.6%	-1.08	10
63	Oregon State	Pac-12	32	16-15-1	51.6%	-0.72	9
64	UConn	FBS Independents	31	16-15	51.6%	-0.76	7
65	Kent State	Mid-American	26	13-12-1	52.0%	-1.37	5
66	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	21	11-10	52.4%	+2.26	7
67	Pittsburgh	ACC	21	11-10	52.4%	-0.93	8
68	Central Michigan	Mid-American	19	10-9	52.6%	+0.42	8
69	Texas Tech	Big 12	21	10-9-2	52.6%	-0.24	5
70	Arizona	Big 12	32	17-15	53.1%	+1.06	10
71	LSU	SEC	14	7-6-1	53.8%	+0.29	7
72	Kansas	Big 12	34	18-15-1	54.5%	-0.71	6
73	TCU	Big 12	11	6-5	54.5%	+4.00	4
74	Auburn	SEC	20	11-9	55.0%	+3.90	6
75	Minnesota	Big Ten	22	11-9-2	55.0%	+0.82	9
76	Colorado	Big 12	28	15-12-1	55.6%	-0.95	8
77	Arizona State	Big 12	27	14-11-2	56.0%	+1.54	12
78	Navy	American Athletic	26	14-11-1	56.0%	+1.92	10
79	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	24	13-10-1	56.5%	-2.46	9
80	Boston College	ACC	31	17-13-1	56.7%	+0.65	8
81	Rice	American Athletic	34	19-14-1	57.6%	+2.16	12
82	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	12	7-5	58.3%	-1.21	5
83	BYU	Big 12	15	9-6	60.0%	+2.57	7
84	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	26	15-10-1	60.0%	+5.08	10
85	Kansas State	Big 12	20	12-8	60.0%	+4.08	8
86	Marshall	Sun Belt	15	9-6	60.0%	+1.77	8
87	SMU	ACC	15	9-6	60.0%	+2.90	5
88	Duke	ACC	24	14-9-1	60.9%	+0.25	9
89	South Alabama	Sun Belt	23	14-9	60.9%	+1.20	5
90	Virginia	ACC	23	14-9	60.9%	-0.46	8
91	San Diego State	Mountain West	18	11-7	61.1%	+6.50	9
92	Louisiana	Sun Belt	13	8-5	61.5%	+3.73	7
93	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	16	10-6	62.5%	+3.41	8
94	Iowa	Big Ten	11	7-4	63.6%	+10.77	4
95	Kentucky	SEC	22	14-8	63.6%	+5.25	7
96	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	14	9-5	64.3%	+1.14	5
97	Hawai'i	Mountain West	34	20-11-3	64.5%	+2.78	13
98	UTSA	American Athletic	18	11-6-1	64.7%	+7.06	7
99	California	ACC	27	18-9	66.7%	+5.54	10
100	Texas	SEC	10	6-3-1	66.7%	+6.00	4
101	Buffalo	Mid-American	21	13-6-2	68.4%	+6.67	7
102	Missouri	SEC	19	13-6	68.4%	+5.05	8
103	Oklahoma State	Big 12	19	13-6	68.4%	+5.71	10
104	Wyoming	Mountain West	29	20-9	69.0%	+5.40	14
105	NC State	ACC	20	14-6	70.0%	+4.63	10
106	Florida	SEC	17	12-5	70.6%	+6.29	10
107	Iowa State	Big 12	18	12-5-1	70.6%	+6.53	5
108	Washington State	Pac-12	17	12-5	70.6%	+2.50	9
109	Tulane	American Athletic	15	11-4	73.3%	+2.93	3
110	Memphis	American Athletic	13	10-3	76.9%	+3.81	8
111	Fresno State	Mountain West	12	9-2-1	81.8%	+7.17	4
112	Ohio	Mid-American	11	9-2	81.8%	+9.18	8

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 10 home underdog games required. Home underdog = spread > 0 (team getting points). ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2016–2025.